Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[thewxmann]

I would disreguard the Euro intensity until we have a low to track then we might have something more realistic

 

The same logic would apply for just about any other model (including the more gung-ho ones) at this stage.

[AvantHiatus]

Till something forms, just go with the euro. 

I see it as vice versa....a consolidated low center should improve consensus. GFS holding strong with development.

[AlaskaETC]

Anyone else having an issue with instantweathermaps.com? Most recent GFS runs not showing.

[AvantHiatus]

Anyone else having an issue with instantweathermaps.com? Most recent GFS runs not showing.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/

 

Classic gulf cane tho...

[Kory]

Quite a trough off the East Coast on the 18z run.  Looks like very weak ridging keeps it from turning north and keeps it on a WNW track.  

 

 

Not to mention, really good outflow for this system on the GFS.

 

[Amped]

Quite a trough off the East Coast on the 18z run.  Looks like very weak ridging keeps it from turning north and keeps it on a WNW track.  

 

 

Not to mention, really good outflow for this system on the GFS.

 

 

The monster storm in the Epac could potentially produce some shear at that time. However, Interaction with Shrederola and Cuba will be the first Obstacles.

[GaWx]

I wouldn't just write this system off just yet.  How many times have we've seen a system limp along until they reach the western Caribbean, Gulf, or off the SE Coast.  The MJO being in phase one seems to be helping it gain some convection considering the past few days it has really been fighting the hostile conditions in the Atlantic.  

 

Not to mention, the Caribbean/Bahamas/Gulf is loaded with potential.  

 

 

 As Kory mentioned, we're in MJO phase 1. The Euro ensemble actually blew this because it had predicted phase 2 through now and beyond. So, the GEFS had a rare MJO victory since it had been predicting a move back into phase 1. Fwiw, the Euro has it milling within a modest phase 1 before moving modestly back into phase 2. See 1st attached chart. However, the GEFS is still insisting on a monsterly strong phase 1 developing. It has it about as strong, if not even stronger than 1979's very bullish late August record strong phase 1 (peak of 3.08) (records back to 1975) really getting going starting in about a week from now. (see 2nd attached chart). Just during this record strong late August to early Sep., 1979, MJO phase 1, alone, David, Frederic, and Gloria (1979 version) all formed. That would be quite bullish for genesis prospects and may be why so many GFS runs are so bullish, but is this GEFS very strong phase 1 fictitious and the Euro's much more modest MJO more correct? Opinions?

 

 

[Kory]

 As Kory mentioned, we're in MJO phase 1. The Euro ensemble actually blew this because it had predicted phase 2 through now and beyond. So, the GEFS had a rare MJO victory since it had been predicting a move back into phase 1. Fwiw, the Euro has it milling within a modest phase 1 before moving modestly back into phase 2. See 1st attached chart. However, the GEFS is still insisting on a monsterly strong phase 1 developing. It has it about as strong, if not even stronger than 1979's very bullish late August record strong phase 1 (records back to 1975) really getting going starting in about a week from now. (see 2nd attached chart). That would be quite bullish for genesis prospects and may be why so many GFS runs are so bullish, but is this GEFS very strong phase 1 fictitious and the Euro's much more modest MJO more correct? Opinions?

 

Interesting you mention the late 1979 MJO, there were some very strong storms and a huge burst of activity in the Atlantic basin within late August into September.  David, Frederic, and Gloria are just a few of the big ones.  Wonder if the same will be the case if the GEM comes to fruition.  

[GaWx]

Interesting you mention the late 1979 MJO, there were some very strong storms and a huge burst of activity in the Atlantic basin within late August into September.  David, Frederic, and Gloria are just a few of the big ones.  Wonder if the same will be the case if the GEM comes to fruition.  

 

Lol, I just added those three named storms in my edited post not knowing you posted them here.

 

Edit: My educated guess is that the GEFS will verify quite a bit too strong and it may still be wrong to keep it in phase 1 since its record is normally not stellar. But we'll see! As mentioned, the Euro ens. actually blew it this time.

[SouthernWx2]

I wouldn't just write this system off just yet.  How many times have we've seen a system limp along until they reach the western Caribbean, Gulf, or off the SE Coast.  The MJO being in phase one seems to be helping it gain some convection considering the past few days it has really been fighting the hostile conditions in the Atlantic.  

 

Not to mention, the Caribbean/Bahamas/Gulf is loaded with potential.  

The six most intense landfalling US hurricanes of record all didn't become hurricanes until west of longitude 65 west......1935 Labor Day hurricane (892 mb), Camille (900 mb), Katrina (920 mb), Andrew (922 mb), 1886 Texas (925 mb), and the 1919 Keys monster (927 mb) all formed relatively close to the US coast over very warm, potent ocean waters.  I can't ever remember seeing the eastern Gulf of Mexico any warmer and more explosive than it is right now.....with several areas over 90 degrees.  As your graphic shows, Oceanic Heat Content is very high as well......lots of high octane fuel lying there waiting to be tapped.

[Superstorm93]

I would look for the storm-specific models to be more helpful around tomorrow 18z when the system is able to consolidate more. The statistical guidance still brings this to a strong hurricane. For now it's nothing more than noise, but once we get a plane into this (first recon mission is Thursday), we should have a much better idea what kind of future 96L has. 

 

 

18z GFS ensembles are north of the OP, so we should see a shift to the north on the 00z run. Whether or not Shredderola kills it is another story.

 

 

[Ground Scouring]

As usual, the 18Z GFS really overdid the amount of convective organization, showing a large banding-type feature wrapping around the estimated low position. Current and recent satellite imagery show not a consolidating system, but rather a bursting-type pattern within the ITCZ. The system is clearly going to take at least a day and a half to become a named system, and right now I'm betting that it won't.

[Superstorm93]

As usual, the 18Z GFS really overdid the amount of convective organization, showing a large banding-type feature wrapping around the estimated low position. Current and recent satellite imagery show not a consolidating system, but rather a bursting-type pattern within the ITCZ. The system is clearly going to take at least a day and a half to become a named system, and right now I'm betting that it won't.

 

I agree that organization should be gradual, but we should start to see more convection start to erupt once 96L interacts with the CCKW. Right now I'd say that this reaches the islands as a depression or weak tropical storm at best. 

 

The potential for this system gets higher as it enter the WCARB 

[wxtrackercody]

 As Kory mentioned, we're in MJO phase 1. The Euro ensemble actually blew this because it had predicted phase 2 through now and beyond. So, the GEFS had a rare MJO victory since it had been predicting a move back into phase 1. Fwiw, the Euro has it milling within a modest phase 1 before moving modestly back into phase 2. See 1st attached chart. However, the GEFS is still insisting on a monsterly strong phase 1 developing. It has it about as strong, if not even stronger than 1979's very bullish late August record strong phase 1 (peak of 3.08) (records back to 1975) really getting going starting in about a week from now. (see 2nd attached chart). Just during this record strong late August to early Sep., 1979, MJO phase 1, alone, David, Frederic, and Gloria (1979 version) all formed. That would be quite bullish for genesis prospects and may be why so many GFS runs are so bullish, but is this GEFS very strong phase 1 fictitious and the Euro's much more modest MJO more correct? Opinions?

 

MJOEuroEnsPred081914.gif

 

MJOgefsPred081914.gif

The MJO actually isn't in octant 1, it's focused in the Indian Ocean (octant 2). If you deconstruct each component that makes up the 200mb VP anomalies, you'll see that the signal is being overwhelmed by a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave (which should aid in the development of 96L over the coming days).

 

[Kory]

Well it seems now there is a consensus for development of 96L and it moving in the general direction toward the Gulf.  The Euro and GFS are now showing a Gulf Coast landfall.  Now, it is still VERY far out, but you like to see a consensus as far as forecasting goes.  

 

Looks like this will be a slow developer, which may be not be as good as it sounds.  A deeper system would probably feel the trough that's forecasted off the East Coast and recurve.  But since it's a rather weak/shallow system, it appears to get a tug north on the GFS and Euro while in the Caribbean, but doesn't fully make the turn north.    

[Derecho!]

Pretty clear it is going to miss Hispaniola to the S based on current position, motion, and lack of development; models that have it over Hispaniola also show a very unrealistic immediate NW movement.

[Kory]

Pretty clear it is going to miss Hispaniola to the S based on current position, motion, and lack of development; models that have it over Hispaniola also show a very unrealistic immediate NW movement.

Not quite sure about that.  It looks like a tropical wave to the east of 96L will fuse with it and develop a new low pressure within the vicinity of 14N 55W.  That's probably why models are showing a NW jog.  

[Srain]

Early morning High Resolution visible imagery suggest 96L is still an elongated area of low pressure and is generally caught up in the  low level flow across the Atlantic beneath the Azores Ridge to the West. I just do not see this disturbance suddenly developing and shifting N by about 150 mile and then turning back W to WNW. We have expected to see a merger of a couple waves W of 50 since last week and conditions appear marginal at best until this disturbance nears the NW Caribbean and enters to Gulf. I would be cautious with these early track guidance model depictions until we have a consolidated center of circulation and that may not happen until the weekend when it is in the Caribbean Sea.

[MarkSC]

I wouldn't be so quick to jump on the Gulf track just yet. A recurve is still quite possible if it develops as quickly as some of the models show. The GFS ensembles are centered up the gulf stream, and the CMC shows a recurve. Makes sense given the persistent east coast trough this season. The best chance for the Gulf is something like the Euro shows: a weak system/tropical wave that never develops until it enters the Gulf.

 

The convergence and turning this morning on visible are pretty impressive, so I do think development within 48 hours is possible.

[AvantHiatus]

I wouldn't be so quick to jump on the Gulf track just yet. A recurve is still quite possible if it develops as quickly as some of the models show. The GFS ensembles are centered up the gulf stream, and the CMC shows a recurve. Makes sense given the persistent east coast trough this season. The best chance for the Gulf is something like the Euro shows: a weak system/tropical wave that never develops until it enters the Gulf.

 

The convergence and turning this morning on visible are pretty impressive, so I do think development within 48 hours is possible.

850mb Vorticity, 96L is becoming less linear and breaking from the ITCZ.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=vor&zoom=&time=

[Derecho!]

850mb Vorticity, 96L is becoming less linear and breaking from the ITCZ.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=vor&zoom=&time=

 

 

12Z INVEST motion was 270 degrees; it basically would have to turn NW essentially...now....to match the more northern models and GFS ensemble members.

[AvantHiatus]

12Z INVEST motion was 270 degrees; it basically would have to turn NW essentially...now....to match the more northern models and GFS ensemble members.

Regardless, developement is occuring...it's not going to turn NW. There will be a center formation between 12-16N.

[MarkSC]

The models are not showing a NW movement IMO.  They are showing a consolidation of the center NW of the current blob of moisture and then a WNW movement, which is quite possible. 

 

Edit: Looks like a circulation is developing now around 12.5 N 52 W

[boulderrr]

 

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area

of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward

Islands has become a little better organized during the past few

hours. Additional slow development of this system is possible during

the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as the

system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser

Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that time, land

interaction could limit development potential over the weekend.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy

rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto

Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday. Interests

in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to

investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[CCHurricane]

12z EURO looks to be following the 12z CMC with a track just east of the Bahamas. Looking at historical tracks passing through this location, it seems that a path OTS seems to be the best bet at this time. Historically speaking, a recurve and east coast landfall of storms passing through this region has almost never occurred.

[AvantHiatus]

12z EURO looks to be following the 12z CMC with a track just east of the Bahamas. Looking at historical tracks passing through this location, it seems that a path OTS seems to be the best bet at this time. Historically speaking, a recurve and east coast landfall of storms passing through this region has almost never occurred.

Occasionally, some ensemble members are doing the Irene thing. It's unusual for a storm at 12N and this far west to not make landfall somewhere, even in the US. The North Atlantic ridge is interesting. Euro moving the storm quite faster than other models as well.

 

500mb height anomaly

 

[Kory]

The next 48-72 hours is going to determine a recurve or not. If it can stay weak and south of the big islands of the Caribbean, than I think chances of a westward track are more likely.

[CCHurricane]

Occasionally, some ensemble members are doing the Irene thing. It's unusual for a storm at 12N and this far west to not make landfall somewhere, even in the US. The North Atlantic ridge is interesting. Euro moving the storm quite faster than other models as well.

 

500mb height anomaly

 

Completely understand that it "could" happen as the ensembles show. But I'd have to imagine the chances are quite rare at this time in August (track tendencies)...

[AvantHiatus]

Completely understand that it "could" happen as the ensembles show. But I'd have to imagine the chances are quite rare at this time in August (track tendencies) and the fact that I can't find one example of this happening historically doesn't bode well.

These days, I'm ready to embrace anything. Missing the website link that shows all TC tracks within a given radius, would be useful. Btw, would such a track become more likely in September?

 

[CCHurricane]

These days, I'm ready to embrace anything. Missing the website link that shows all TC tracks within a given radius, would be useful. Btw, would such a track become more likely in September?

 

Here is the Hurricane Track link: http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

It's a great tool as you can set a location, radius in terms of track, and filter for strength. For me here on Cape Cod it's a good tool in terms of knowing when I can get excited for a storm due to historical analogs (but there is always that ONE storm )

And below are some a few general images in regards to track for time of month. Of course these are just the best bet for each month, not to say something couldn't surprise us. A recurve track is definitely more likely to occur in September->October.