Hitman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Good upslope potential tonight. Upper level low, good springtime lapse rates, moist low levels, CAA on decently strong NW flow...has a nice appeal overnight for the mountains. even down my way? BTV mentioned you up to Jay. fwiw-good to hear you utter words of confidence. been missing this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 even down my way? BTV mentioned you up to Jay. fwiw-good to hear you utter words of confidence. been missing this season. I think Sugarbush-Mt Ellen stands just as good a chance, maybe slightly less, but the flow is more westerly for a while which can hit down there, too. I'd say your good for 2-3" down there, with maybe 3-4" up here. This is the overnight QPF off the BTV4 model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 BTV's AFD this afternoon. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...MAIN WEATHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BETHE ANTICIPATED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BECOME PRIMARILY TERRAINDRIVEN AS THE SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS THE ABUNDANT LOWLEVEL MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE `DACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. THEATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WELL MIXED ALL NIGHT, SOTHIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.GIVEN THE OROGRAPHICS PLAYING A BIG ROLE, I USED A BLEND OF ALLTHE LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS FOR CREATING THE QPF FIELDS. ENDED UPWITH TOTALS AROUND 0.25" ACROSS THE DACKS AND MUCH OF THE HIGHERTERRAIN OF NORTH- CENTRAL VERMONT. RUNNING THOSE AMOUNTS THROUGHVARIOUS SNOW-LIQUID RATIO ESTIMATES, I KEPT COMING UP WITHSNOWFALL GENERALLY IN THE 3-4" RANGE -- WITH SPOT TOTALSAROUND 5 INCHES ON THE EASTERN SLOPE OF MT MANSFIELD ANDAROUND JAY PEAK. WITH THE SNOW GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHERTERRAIN AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS STAYINGBELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 4", WILL NOT BE RAISING ANYHEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE.QUITE A VARIATION IN THE PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) -- WITH 70%+ ACROSSTHE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS DOWN TO THE30-40% RANGE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Upslope portion of the event is beginning... we are getting some huge flakes in town. Will be interesting to see what the Mountains get tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I think Sugarbush-Mt Ellen stands just as good a chance, maybe slightly less, but the flow is more westerly for a while which can hit down there, too. I'd say your good for 2-3" down there, with maybe 3-4" up here. This is the overnight QPF off the BTV4 model. BTV_4.png Thanks. Should be good conditions this weekend. Things break right could get another powder day. That would bring me to 7 on the ec, 1 shy of my goal of 8. I think you guys were too quick to grade the winter. Still have some late semester cramming to do, but could get the grade up. Some thing to be said for a wintry march and spring skiing into May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Thanks. Should be good conditions this weekend. Things break right could get another powder day. That would bring me to 7 on the ec, 1 shy of my goal of 8. I think you guys were too quick to grade the winter. Still have some late semester cramming to do, but could get the grade up. Some thing to be said for a wintry march and spring skiing into May. I think for some (I'm talking normal people haha), that makes it worse. Most people want winter when its winter, and spring when its spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 We'll that 6"didn't last long. Lost about 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I think for some (I'm talking normal people haha), that makes it worse. Most people want winter when its winter, and spring when its spring. Good point. I am definitely far from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.26” L.E. An additional 0.6” of snow fell today to add to this event. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 12.0 Snow Density: 8.3% H2O Temperature: 36.1 F Sky: Light Snow (10-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches The snow has been picking up as we’ve moved into the evening, with an additional 0.7” down on the boards. There are some stronger echoes in the flow that are coinciding with some of the heavier snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I think you guys were too quick to grade the winter. Still have some late semester cramming to do, but could get the grade up. Something to be said for a wintry march and spring skiing into May. Absolutely, I didn’t mean in any way to imply that the D+ I gave was a final grade, it just represented how the season had performed through that point. March and April can be fantastic for snow here in NNE. Indeed this March has already been quite good with respect to snowfall and snow preservation, and as the month will be coming in above average in terms of snowfall, it’s going to be the first one since November to do so. I’d say it’s already been just about enough to raise the season’s grade to a C-, but we’ll just have to see where the rest of the month and April take us. We still need close to 30 inches here before the end of the season to reach average snowfall, so there’s definitely some work to be done by Mother Nature. However, this season has been making quite a recovery, already exceeded the total season snowfall attained in 2011-2012 (115.3”) and 2009-2010 (127.7”). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 downtown Waterbury had ~1.5" or so since 6pm. Here at home, it's more like 2.5" and definitely not as wet/dense. It's coming down nicely, and I'd imagine we'd see an over performer if this keeps up. edit: we're a hair under 3" here. It's a pretty lumpy snow as the big parachutes make for an inconsistent surface. At higher elevation, with this snow growth, it should be nice fluff. This is the kind of night that the Northern Greens are known for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The clipper on Saturday is pretty nice looking...the soundings look pretty favorable for some nice ratios. Hopefully that stays on guidance. Could see a narrow stripe of 4-6" from N VT over to N NH and NW ME. I'll certainly take some nice fluff at Sunday River to go on top of the 12" of denser snow they got last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 downtown Waterbury had ~1.5" or so since 6pm. Here at home, it's more like 2.5" and definitely not as wet/dense. It's coming down nicely, and I'd imagine we'd see an over performer if this keeps up. edit: we're a hair under 3" here. It's a pretty lumpy snow as the big parachutes make for an inconsistent surface. At higher elevation, with this snow growth, it should be nice fluff. This is the kind of night that the Northern Greens are known for. Wow nice...only 0.5-0.7" here but has been ramping up in the past 30 minutes. There was a pretty strong band in the Waterbury area on composite radar that sort of keeps training over the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 909 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014 VTZ003-006-008-016>018-210600- ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN- EASTERN ADDISON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE... MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL... RIPTON 909 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014 ...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT... AT 909 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER RADAR IS SHOWING A PERSISTENT AREA OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN...CHITTENDEN AND ADDISON COUNTIES AS WELL AS MOST OF ORLEANS...LAMOILLE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VERMONT. WITH WIND FLOW ALMOST DUE WEST...EXPECTING THESE AREAS TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS... ESPECIALLY IN THE STOWE AND WATERBURY AREAS. TRAVELERS SHOULD USE CAUTION IF ON AREA ROADWAYS. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 909 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014 VTZ003-006-008-016>018-210600- ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN- EASTERN ADDISON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE... MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL... RIPTON 909 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014 ...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT... AT 909 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER RADAR IS SHOWING A PERSISTENT AREA OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN...CHITTENDEN AND ADDISON COUNTIES AS WELL AS MOST OF ORLEANS...LAMOILLE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VERMONT. WITH WIND FLOW ALMOST DUE WEST...EXPECTING THESE AREAS TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS... ESPECIALLY IN THE STOWE AND WATERBURY AREAS. TRAVELERS SHOULD USE CAUTION IF ON AREA ROADWAYS. $$ yeah, it's actually cranking here. We've probably picked up close to an inch since my last post. sitting at 3.5"+ now, and the 4" mark is not far away given the upstream look. great night out there! edit: 3.9" and lightening up with smaller flakes. But upstream looks to be solid still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ripping here again...just like last night...lol. Wasn't it about 80° two years ago today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ripping Newry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The local cocorahs guy's were fairly in line with me for this past event. Northfield 1W (me) 7.9" new, 0.88" w.e., 25" depth Tilton-Northfield 3.3NE 7.5" new, 0.80" w.e., 24" depth Northfield 2.8E 8.7" new, 0.86" w.e., 27" depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 we're down to ~3.8" here. Finer flakes and time allowed for that round of super-sized flakes to settle out a bit. Finer, steady snow falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 A sort of wet 3.5" overnight...good snow growth but you can make a snow ball out of it at home. Very pretty stuff stuck to everything. Still snowing decently. I bet the mountain got crushed. Going to find out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Holy sheeeet! Mansfield got absolutely bombed overnight. I'm reporting 7-11" overnight but that may be low-balling it based on the groomer reports up high. We were at 7.5" an hour ago at the base, and are now 8" or so easy. My drive up here this morning was the shadiest I've had all winter...full upslope blizzard conditions. Like a Lake Effect band with 1-2"/hr rates and wind but huge flakes so the vis comes way down. I had to stop several times in the middle of the road to let the vis come back up. Those are my headlights reflecting back at me in a whiteout. 7.5" at 5:30am in the parking lot. Snowstake was between 7-8" but seeing quite a bit of drifting up one side of the stake. Just ripping snow out there, plowing has the big trucks out this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Sb reporting 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Sb reporting 10" And 2" at the base...they've had some huge variations between base and summit this season. It must be a wind-scoured field for measuring down low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Event totals: 4.4” Snow/0.32” L.E. 1.5” of snow fell throughout the night, although the intensity of snowfall picked up and accumulations appeared even more robust as I headed eastward toward the center of Waterbury. To the west, I didn’t really see much going on along the western slopes, and it’s just cloudy here in Burlington. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0 Snow Density: 4.0% H2O Temperature: 30.6 F Sky: Light Snow (5-6 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches The snow from this storm continues to pile up in the local mountains, already passing a foot in some places. The north to south listing of updated storm totals from the Vermont ski areas are below. Jay Peak: 9” Burke: 9” Smuggler’s Notch: 6” Stowe: 13” Bolton Valley: 8” Mad River Glen: 8” Sugarbush: 14” Pico: 4” Killington: 4” Okemo: 8” Bromley: 3” Stratton: 5” Mount Snow: 5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 And 2" at the base...they've had some huge variations between base and summit this season. It must be a wind-scoured field for measuring down low. sugarbush.JPG That kind of discrepancy is not uncommon for these upslope events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Event totals: 4.4” Snow/0.32” L.E. 1.5” of snow fell throughout the night, although the intensity of snowfall picked up and accumulations appeared even more robust as I headed eastward toward the center of Waterbury. To the west, I didn’t really see much going on along the western slopes, and it’s just cloudy here in Burlington. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0 Snow Density: 4.0% H2O Temperature: 30.6 F Sky: Light Snow (5-6 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches The snow from this storm continues to pile up in the local mountains, already passing a foot in some places. The north to south listing of updated storm totals from the Vermont ski areas are below. Jay Peak: 9” Burke: 9” Smuggler’s Notch: 6” Stowe: 13” Bolton Valley: 8” Mad River Glen: 8” Sugarbush: 14” Pico: 4” Killington: 4” Okemo: 8” Bromley: 3” Stratton: 5” Mount Snow: 5” Holy dendrites! Jay peak isnt reporting the most. Someone in marketing must have fallen asleep. Heads will roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That kind of discrepancy is not uncommon for these upslope events. Yeah I guess. I just don't know SB's climo that well. I remember large differences in the synoptic events too, like Valentine's Day with 12" base and 35" summit. They are east side like here which got more snow than the west side, so I believe it last night, just surprised at only 2" at the base I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Just under 3" at home and it was still snowing when I left. Looks like a bit more here in Montpelier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Holy sheeeet! Mansfield got absolutely bombed overnight. I'm reporting 7-11" overnight but that may be low-balling it based on the groomer reports up high. We were at 7.5" an hour ago at the base, and are now 8" or so easy. My drive up here this morning was the shadiest I've had all winter...full upslope blizzard conditions. Like a Lake Effect band with 1-2"/hr rates and wind but huge flakes so the vis comes way down. I had to stop several times in the middle of the road to let the vis come back up. Those are my headlights reflecting back at me in a whiteout. March22b.JPG 7.5" at 5:30am in the parking lot. Snowstake was between 7-8" but seeing quite a bit of drifting up one side of the stake. March21a.JPG Just ripping snow out there, plowing has the big trucks out this morning. March23e.JPG March22c.JPG March23d.JPG Wow nice. Low up by FVE for a few hours and leftover synoptic moisture? I knew you should be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Picked up another 2.2" at the house last night. Surprised there's little to no talk about that bomb next week. So far still east of here but the GFS has brought it closer to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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