mreaves Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Do the Froude numbers come into play with these type of systems like they do with upslope events? It took a guy at my meeting tonight 2 hours to get from Burlington to Berlin. Heavy snow all the way down to about Exit 9. Didn't really translate to this area though so I was wondering if the flow was blocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like dews dipped to -20F overnight...nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Woke up to a surprise snowfall from overnight, close to 1/2" of fluff on the board. A 1/10" of this was due to a heavy squall that went through shortly before dark last evening. Not sure when the rest of it fell. The roads from Bath to Brunswick this morning were very icy considering only ~1/2" snow fell. 7.3°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.10” L.E. There was an additional 0.2” of snow overnight when the next impulse of snow came through. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 0.1 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches Since there’s no snow expected today, this event will probably do it for the month of February. If that’s the case, the month will come in with 40.8” of snowfall, which about as average as you can get based on my data set, so it’s not going to help with regard to gaining any ground on seasonal averages. With the February snowfall in the books, one can contemplate the numbers with regard to the rest of the season, and it’s really going to take an outstanding March and April to get anywhere near average snowfall. It’s certainly possible though, since March-April 2007 brought 62.2” of snow in what was a very back-loaded winter. The next opportunities for snow appear to be Saturday into Sunday with a small system and an arctic frontal boundary, and then a larger system passing to the south on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 With the February snowfall in the books, one can contemplate the numbers with regard to the rest of the season, and it’s really going to take an outstanding March and April to get anywhere near average snowfall. It’s certainly possible though, since March-April 2007 brought 62.2” of snow in what was a very back-loaded winter. No chance of average in the mountains I'm pretty sure...it would take at least a 2007 type effort and even that may not be enough to get 140". If we were going to summarize the winter, we could probably use the 12z NAM's QPF output for Monday's storm, lol. Its like the models are going out of their way to not include us, with the best snow well south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Dusting overnight (actually was 0.1" with T for liquid) plus sufficient cloud/wind to bring temps up to the singles from 9 PM's zero. Looks like Sun-Mon might be a clean miss, while the central IL family gets another solid event. This winter's snowfall ranks #7 for Decatur since 1900, and the weekend event should bring it to 3rd or 4th. The couple of week 2 rainstorms on yesterday's gfs have become two snowstorms. Given the recent trend, they'll probably just go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Do the Froude numbers come into play with these type of systems like they do with upslope events? It took a guy at my meeting tonight 2 hours to get from Burlington to Berlin. Heavy snow all the way down to about Exit 9. Didn't really translate to this area though so I was wondering if the flow was blocked.Flow was very unblocked as forecast soundings suggested mixing even up to 600mb. Could be that it just weakened. Squalls are convective so they'll behave like tstorms.In some cases, the flow can become significantly blocked following a squall if the front is sharp enough, but not the case yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No chance of average in the mountains I'm pretty sure...it would take at least a 2007 type effort and even that may not be enough to get 140". If we were going to summarize the winter, we could probably use the 12z NAM's QPF output for Monday's storm, lol. Its like the models are going out of their way to not include us, with the best snow well south of here. NAM.PNG disheartening to say the least. woke up to 5f in the lower HV on the last day of Feb. Not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nice GFS run. Let's keep driving the PV south and get some real cold in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like dews dipped to -20F overnight...nice. Nose bleed cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No chance of average in the mountains I'm pretty sure...it would take at least a 2007 type effort and even that may not be enough to get 140". If we were going to summarize the winter, we could probably use the 12z NAM's QPF output for Monday's storm, lol. Its like the models are going out of their way to not include us, with the best snow well south of here. NAM.PNG I hate to be right in this case. I guess we can punt this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I hate to be right in this case. I guess we can punt this winter. no punting. play hard until the final whistle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Punting the rest of winter in NNE on the last day of Feb FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Punting the rest of winter in NNE on the last day of Feb FTL. Aren't they near normal or just below? WTF is that weenie shiat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Aren't they near normal or just below? WTF is that weenie shiat? BTV is back below normal and that departure will grow over the next week or so. I am just being over dramaticas always, but the pattern has been one of overall frustration with a few exceptions with the jackpots to the south. BTV's total is not representative of the mountains (which have seen greater negative departures without question). They have lacked in upslope events in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 With this February coming in right at average for snowfall, it is really starting to lock in the stats I have for that month now. The mean was 40.6” before this season was added in, and with 40.8” this February, that mean didn’t budge at all, and the S.D. came down to just 8.1”. That’s an S.D. of just ± 20.0%. What that says is that thus far during my period of record, February is a very reliable month for snowfall in this area, apparently less prone to highs and lows than the others. In support of that mean is also a median within one inch, at 39.8”. Also of note is the mean value of 40.6”. Amazingly, that is also the exact mean, to the tenth of an inch, for December as of this season, and it is supported by a very tight median at 40.8”. And, 40.6” was also the exact value for January’s snowfall mean prior to these last three poor Januarys bringing it down. We’ll have to see if these last three Januarys have just been a burp, or if there is indeed a snowfall nadir in January along the spine of the Northern Greens because of arctic air, southward storm suppression, or whatever, as it sometimes appears. Whatever the case, there has been a very strong tendency for the midwinter months of December, January, and February, to home in on a mean of around 40” of snowfall in my data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Good thing we can't actually punt the weather cuz she gon' do what she gon' do. Another cold one this morning: -7 for a low. Killing it for cold mornings this winter--up to 38 below-zero 24 hour minima (a few cheapies in the there) and another 18 <10F 24 hour minima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The good thing about a below normal snowfall winter, is that the mountains here still end up getting more snow than other New England mountains...we are just spoiled and want our 18" per week all winter long. Today was a good day. 10" this week, so the turns are getting good again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Aren't they near normal or just below? WTF is that weenie shiat? Gun to head, does BTV finish above normal or below normal for snowfall? BTV definitely has a shot at normal or above as they have a lower average so a couple more synoptic storms would probably do it. The mountains and mountain towns will be tough (I think J.Spin posted he's about 3-4 weeks behind and 30" below normal) and most ski areas still haven't crested 200" for the season. The lack of upslope and synoptic systems has been taking its toll relative to average, but even a frustrating winter like this still finds a way to snow, just not with the tenacity we are used to. Bolton Valley (which is a classic west slope upslope ski area) is at 140" on the season with an average of like 310" (Jspin might have the actual value), so there's some work to be done. I read a lot of ski forums, and they are having the same discussions, haha. The skiers in the Wasatch of Utah are b*tching and moaning about only being at 260" on the season right now, with 10-year averages of 550". Meanwhile, the skiers in Colorado are having a great winter with a lot of places at 250-300" (the same as the Wasatch) but they only average around 300" per season. The CO skiers are telling the UT skiers to "suck it up, you are still getting the same amount of snow as the rest of us in the end" but the UT skiers hate that they are only at like 50% of their average seasonal total going into March. Its pretty funny and reminded me of this board in that we are moaning about only being at 180" on the mountain right now, when most other mountain areas of New England would take that in a heart beat each season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The good thing about a below normal snowfall winter, is that the mountains here still end up getting more snow than other New England mountains...we are just spoiled and want our 18" per week all winter long. Today was a good day. 10" this week, so the turns are getting good again. And your whining........... , Man you have your bar set awful high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 And your whining........... , Man you have your bar set awful high I'm not whining... I'm just stating that its below average, and wishing it would be above average, haha. I mean c'mon... look at this, the mid-elevation snowpack in the hardwoods is only 4 feet deep. We shouldn't have to deal with twigs sticking out of the snowpack this time of year. That alder-brush messing up my photos today should be long gone by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 In NNE, below normal years are more common than above since the mean is skewed by some high outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 In NNE, below normal years are more common than above since the mean is skewed by some high outliers. Whoa, wait a minute, we’ve had this conversation before, and last time it was the exact opposite. Supposedly, the snowier a locale around here, the harder it is to get huge deviations from average snowfall; deviations in temperatures don’t result in rain as much, the mountains create some of their own snow through upslope, etc. I think a winter with 200% of mean snowfall in the mountains around here is virtually unheard of, and I’m not even sure of the last time we had 150% of normal – that’s getting close to 500” for places like Bolton Valley and Stowe, and I know I haven’t seen that. Even 2000-2001, definitely the snowiest winter in the past 20 years (432” at Stowe) is only 135% of average. Even when we broke 200” here at the house in 2007-2008 for the snowiest winter in my records, it only represented 127% of average. If the data are being skewed by some high outliers, we should at least get to experience them, just like the below normal years (which will be three in a row if this one comes in below average). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 In NNE, below normal years are more common than above since the mean is skewed by some high outliers. Oh, then I've gotta get used to it, lol. The past 15 years though would argue otherwise though. Wouldn't that be applicable anywhere though? Every region will have its high outliers, we just have more of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm not whining... I'm just stating that its below average, and wishing it would be above average, haha. I mean c'mon... look at this, the mid-elevation snowpack in the hardwoods is only 4 feet deep. We shouldn't have to deal with twigs sticking out of the snowpack this time of year. That alder-brush messing up my photos today should be long gone by now Don’t fret PF, just get rid of the brush with the content aware setting on Photoshop’s spot healing brush tool – it’s really like magic for the ends of shrubs or stuff that’s sticking out of the snow – it’s great when you’ve got a few pieces of brush distracting from an otherwise great shot: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Oh, then I've gotta get used to it, lol. The past 15 years though would argue otherwise though. Wouldn't that be applicable anywhere though? Every region will have its high outliers, we just have more of them? What I want to know is – where are these high outliers and why didn’t we get to experience them? We just saw in the co-op data how the average snowfall on Mansfield in the past 15 years was the same as the previous 43, and the snowiest season in the past 15 was only 35% above average using Stowe’s data. This idea just seems rather anecdotal unless we talk about some actual numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 What I want to know is – where are these high outliers and why didn’t we get to experience them? We just saw in the co-op data how the average snowfall on Mansfield in the past 15 years was the same as the previous 43, and the snowiest season in the past 15 was only 35% above average using Stowe’s data. This idea just seems rather anecdotal unless we talk about some actual numbers. I'm not going to do it tonight, but I'm curious enough that I want to do a quick count of above and below normal seasons at BTV and MMNV1 coop. I would've just thought that formula would've applied more to areas that have low average annual snowfall, like say BWI/PHL/NYC/BOS....where you have a few huge seasons skewing the mean a bit. Especially down in DCA/BWI area though...they could go five winter's without seeing much snow and then bam have a 60-inch season that jacks the mean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Don’t fret PF, just get rid of the brush with the content aware setting on Photoshop’s spot healing brush tool – it’s really like magic for the ends of shrubs or stuff that’s sticking out of the snow – it’s great when you’ve got a few pieces of brush distracting from an otherwise great shot: Damn! Nice, I gotta start playing around with that more often. For the rest of the guys, I was being completely sarcastic about the brush not being covered up at this time of the year. I'm not nearly as serious about a lot of this stuff as some of you may think, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'll give PF and eyewall props for being negative on this last storm. Hell I might even smoke cirrus...lol. Still, not all winters are going to be above normal....and you guys are just about normal or a hair below...that's really not all that bad. That's just how it goes sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'll give PF and eyewall props for being negative on this last storm. Hell I might even smoke cirrus...lol. Still, not all winters are going to be above normal....and you guys are just about normal or a hair below...that's really not all that bad. That's just how it goes sometimes. It is a C- winter by the standards up here I think. It wasn't in the cards this year to be memorable or historic like farther south. The pattern never relented. The Euro was less than promising for anything different for the next 10 days. I guess I was just hoping for something real big in my first one living up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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