Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[mattie g]

If we didn't have 09/10, last winter would have been considered awesome.  As it was, it was mostly awesome.

 

Probably.  But I hate mixed/gloppy events, especially when it's a changeover from snow to crap.  It's expected - I know that - but mixing always ruins any snow event for me.

[mitchnick]

Probably.  But I hate mixed/gloppy events, especially when it's a changeover from snow to crap.  It's expected - I know that - but mixing always ruins any snow event for me.

there was enough snow imby so that the mixing/changeovers were tolerable

although I certainly would prefer all snow every time, playing the ip/zr line can add some fun and intrigue to the event as long as it's a decent snow dump imho

[T. August]

Probably.  But I hate mixed/gloppy events, especially when it's a changeover from snow to crap.  It's expected - I know that - but mixing always ruins any snow event for me.

Same here. I don't even care about the event if there is a changeover in the forecast.

[Fozz]

Changeovers are a fact of life in the mid-Atlantic and if they are enough to stop you from enjoying an event then you're going to be pretty miserable even in a good winter.

[mattie g]

Changeovers are a fact of life in the mid-Atlantic and if they are enough to stop you from enjoying an event then you're going to be pretty miserable even in a good winter.

 

Thanks for telling me how I feel in the winter.  I don't know how I've made it this far in life since I'm apparently miserable for three months out of every year.

[Ian]

Last winter wasn't truly exceptional until March. Too bad March snow is meh.

[mattie g]

Same here. I don't even care about the event if there is a changeover in the forecast.

 

I wouldn't go that far, but it does ruin some of the excitement for me.

 

Good thing is that most of our snow is gone within like a week afterwards anyway - whether there's a changeover or not - so I forget about it pretty quickly.

[T. August]

I wouldn't go that far, but it does ruin some of the excitement for me.

 

Good thing is that most of our snow is gone within like a week afterwards anyway - whether there's a changeover or not - so I forget about it pretty quickly.

Yeah, it's a little extreme. I just don't like to look out the window at two sloppy inches while it's raining.

 

Feb. 13 was the exception. The foot of overnight snow made up for the heavy rain in the morning.

[mattie g]

Yeah, it's a little extreme. I just don't like to look out the window at two sloppy inches while it's raining.

 

Feb. 13 was the exception. The foot of overnight snow made up for the heavy rain in the morning.

 

Even that was a bit of a buzzkill for me.  The cold mist and drizzle made getting out and shoveling pretty nasty.

What I did love was the warmup the next day.  Brilliant sunshine and low 50s felt a lot warmer than it actually was.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Same here. I don't even care about the event if there is a changeover in the forecast.

Lol

I assume you're referring to a changeover to rain? There's nothing wrong with a bit of glaze or crust on things, especially as we usually can't avoid playing with the sleet/zr line in many cases..

[aldie 22]

Last winter wasn't truly exceptional until March. Too bad March snow is meh.

Last march felt different than meh to me

[T. August]

Lol

I assume you're referring to a changeover to rain? There's nothing wrong with a bit of glaze or crust on things, especially as we usually can't avoid playing with the sleet/zr line in many cases..

It's only rain. I don't mind sleet/freezing rain. I actually like when the snow is glazed over.

[mitchnick]

looks like a solid east QBO for the winter

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

 

NINO and E-QBOs combos have been decent recently (02/03 & 09/10), but 91/92 was a dog at BWI with only 4.1" of snow

[Bob Chill]

idk mitch. Unless something starts changing within a month (2 tops) in enso regions then I don't think 02/03 or 09/10 are good analogs at all. ENSO has been deteriorating to the point of neg anoms now. 

 

 

On the flip side, the large expanse of + anoms in the npac and even the bering sea has really held strong. It's getting close to the point where we can start expecting -epo stuff at least in the early part of the winter. We'll see where we are in Oct but no signs of that area reversing yet. 

 

I'm personally about ready to write off a mod nino. Just about zero chance of a strong one. It's ok though. A weak nino can still deliver an active stj and if we can combine a dominant -epo on the means then there is really nothing to worry about. Heck, it would be something to look forward to. 

 

It's pretty amazing that the pv has continued to re-establish itself in the same regions this summer that it did last winter. The LW pattern has been amazingly consistent overall for what seems like forever now. Until that breaks down I don't think there is any reason to bet against it. 

 

In my simpleton view I see the lw pattern simply equalizing a really warm multi year run in NA. Europe/Asia had some brutal winters. Record breaking cold in many areas until last year when they kinda roasted. I'm feeling confident in the upcoming winter not being full of misery and despair. Will we match last year's snow totals? Wouldn't bet a dollar on that one. Will we meet or beat climo? I would bet even odds that we will attm. 

[AlaskaETC]

idk mitch. Unless something starts changing within a month (2 tops) in enso regions then I don't think 02/03 or 09/10 are good analogs at all. ENSO has been deteriorating to the point of neg anoms now. 

 

currentsst.JPG

 

On the flip side, the large expanse of + anoms in the npac and even the bering sea has really held strong. It's getting close to the point where we can start expecting -epo stuff at least in the early part of the winter. We'll see where we are in Oct but no signs of that area reversing yet. 

 

I'm personally about ready to write off a mod nino. Just about zero chance of a strong one. It's ok though. A weak nino can still deliver an active stj and if we can combine a dominant -epo on the means then there is really nothing to worry about. Heck, it would be something to look forward to. 

 

It's pretty amazing that the pv has continued to re-establish itself in the same regions this summer that it did last winter. The LW pattern has been amazingly consistent overall for what seems like forever now. Until that breaks down I don't think there is any reason to bet against it. 

 

In my simpleton view I see the lw pattern simply equalizing a really warm multi year run in NA. Europe/Asia had some brutal winters. Record breaking cold in many areas until last year when they kinda roasted. I'm feeling confident in the upcoming winter not being full of misery and despair. Will we match last year's snow totals? Wouldn't bet a dollar on that one. Will we meet or beat climo? I would bet even odds that we will attm. 

 

With a nice -EPO, I wouldn't rule out snow that rivals last year's total. I know people constantly beat the drum about climo here and how the records in the past don't indicate any chance for two good years in a row....that's fine. However, I caution against outright pessimism in August. If the survey says "thumbs down for snow" in October or November, then I will listen more carefully and temper my expectations.

[Bob Chill]

With a nice -EPO, I wouldn't rule out snow that rivals last year's total. I know people constantly beat the drum about climo here and how the records in the past don't indicate any chance for two good years in a row....that's fine. However, I caution against outright pessimism in August. If the survey says "thumbs down for snow" in October or November, then I will listen more carefully and temper my expectations.

 

The one red flag about last winter was basically a lack of large area synoptic snows. It was a spray of "narrow" events up and down the coast for the most part except for the Feb storm. We could have easily been unlucky. We were crosshaired late in the season to really up the totals. Areas not too far away didn't fair nearly as well. Winners and losers for each event were close together up and down the coast for the vast majority of the season. Including SNE. Progressive flow is nerve wracking no matter where you live. 

 

This is my location last year. A couple things stand out. #1, March was historic. We get blanked or dusted in March far far more than putting up these kind of totals. #2 is number of events. We had a remarkable # of snow events and it added up. Many things lined up right for us. Especially late in the season where we typically never do well. 

 

11/27: T

12/08: 1.5" 

12/10: 2.0" 

12/14: .25" 

01/02: 4.5"

01/21: 6.75"

01/28: .5"

02/09: .5"

02/13: 16.25" (13 front / 3.25 ull)

02/18: 1.0"

02/25: 1.25"

02/26: 2.50"

03/03: 5.50"

03/16: 9.50"

03/25: 3.00" 

03/30: .7"

55.70" 

 

Dec: 3.75"

Jan: 11.75"

Feb: 21.50"

Mar: 18.70"

 

 

I wouldn't expect a repeat in the sense of getting there the same way. However, a classic miller A or 2 running the coast mixed with moderate events...

[AlaskaETC]

Also, the CFS is showing a healthy El Nino still, although it would probably be weak as Bob Chill mentioned, but any El Nino besides a strong easterly-based Nino is still good in my books.

[AlaskaETC]

The one red flag about last winter was basically a lack of large area synoptic snows. It was a spray of "narrow" events up and down the coast for the most part except for the Feb storm. We could have easily been unlucky. We were crosshaired late in the season to really up the totals. Areas not too far away didn't fair nearly as well. Winners and losers for each event were close together up and down the coast for the vast majority of the season. Including SNE. Progressive flow is nerve wracking no matter where you live. 

 

This is my location last year. A couple things stand out. #1, March was historic. We get blanked or dusted in March far far more than putting up these kind of totals. #2 is number of events. We had a remarkable # of snow events and it added up. Many things lined up right for us. Especially late in the season where we typically never do well. 

 

11/27: T

12/08: 1.5" 

12/10: 2.0" 

12/14: .25" 

01/02: 4.5"

01/21: 6.75"

01/28: .5"

02/09: .5"

02/13: 16.25" (13 front / 3.25 ull)

02/18: 1.0"

02/25: 1.25"

02/26: 2.50"

03/03: 5.50"

03/16: 9.50"

03/25: 3.00" 

03/30: .7"

55.70" 

 

Dec: 3.75"

Jan: 11.75"

Feb: 21.50"

Mar: 18.70"

 

 

I wouldn't expect a repeat in the sense of getting there the same way. However, a classic miller A or 2 running the coast mixed with moderate events...

 

Good point about being lucky with the cross hairs, I suppose.

 

But yeah, a weak Nino that has an active STJ and -EPO could definitely put us in a good position again.

[mitchnick]

idk mitch. Unless something starts changing within a month (2 tops) in enso regions then I don't think 02/03 or 09/10 are good analogs at all. ENSO has been deteriorating to the point of neg anoms now. 

 

currentsst.JPG

 

On the flip side, the large expanse of + anoms in the npac and even the bering sea has really held strong. It's getting close to the point where we can start expecting -epo stuff at least in the early part of the winter. We'll see where we are in Oct but no signs of that area reversing yet. 

 

I'm personally about ready to write off a mod nino. Just about zero chance of a strong one. It's ok though. A weak nino can still deliver an active stj and if we can combine a dominant -epo on the means then there is really nothing to worry about. Heck, it would be something to look forward to. 

 

It's pretty amazing that the pv has continued to re-establish itself in the same regions this summer that it did last winter. The LW pattern has been amazingly consistent overall for what seems like forever now. Until that breaks down I don't think there is any reason to bet against it. 

 

In my simpleton view I see the lw pattern simply equalizing a really warm multi year run in NA. Europe/Asia had some brutal winters. Record breaking cold in many areas until last year when they kinda roasted. I'm feeling confident in the upcoming winter not being full of misery and despair. Will we match last year's snow totals? Wouldn't bet a dollar on that one. Will we meet or beat climo? I would bet even odds that we will attm. 

 

Bob, idk which way to lean yet this winter. I do think the NINO makes an appearance with a peak in the +.9 - +1.1 range on the tri-monthly average, but we should definitely have a better handle on it this time next month. I'm with you on the NPAC, though, that looks great....but my weenie self worries what might happen if it was to get too warm since the warmth is impressive and expansive. Of course, the best part is that the seasonal outlooks should be hitting the presses also this time next month. As usual, my default setting is optimistic, which served me well last year (the first time in 4!)

[StudentOfClimatology]

Solar is going to be very important w/ the -QBO...years with mod/high solar/-QBO/+ENSO tend to favor a +EPO/pseudo -NAO, in the absence of adequate tropical forcing. So I want as much EPAC cooling as I can get..Niño. 3.4/4 warming would also be helpful in that dept.

[T. August]

How did this end up in here? 

lol I thought I was in the obs thread when I saw this.

[wildweatherman179]

Solar is going to be very important w/ the -QBO...years with mod/high solar/-QBO/+ENSO tend to favor a +EPO/pseudo -NAO, in the absence of adequate tropical forcing. So I want as much EPAC cooling as I can get..Niño. 3.4/4 warming would also be helpful in that dept.

Not really sure why you would want cooling in the EPAC. In most cases we end up with modified crappier Pacific air masses when that happens. Correct? Niño 3.4 and 4 have a lot of warming to do to even get me to consider an El Niño in a long term forecast at this point.

[CoastalWx]

Not really sure why you would want cooling in the EPAC. In most cases we end up with modified crappier Pacific air masses when that happens. Correct? Niño 3.4 and 4 have a lot of warming to do to even get me to consider an El Niño in a long term forecast at this point.

I think he means cooling in the EPAC so that any warmer anomalies are more central and west based. When this happens, it opens up the door for colder air to push into the east. A warmer EPAC means a more east based Niño. When this happens, storm tracks are close to the coast, but we tend to have a tough time getting any cold air to work with.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Yeah I meant Niño 1-2 & 3, not the PDO domain.

[Bob Chill]

Yeah I meant Niño 1-2 & 3, not the PDO domain.

Agreed. Though right now enso isn't looking to be a primary driver. That could change but the near total collapse the last few months was completely unexpected by anyone just a few short months ago.

West based warmth in the basin (even if modest) is a net positive piece of the puzzle for sure though.

If we go into Nov and Nino is still weak hopefully we see a southern storm track set up. If the ski areas in southern ca/co and nm start piling up a base in Nov it usually means it will continue during the first half of winter more often than not. Would be nice to get some nao help this year too.It's been on a multi year hiatus.

[wildweatherman179]

Agreed. Though right now enso isn't looking to be a primary driver. That could change but the near total collapse the last few months was completely unexpected by anyone just a few short months ago.

West based warmth in the basin (even if modest) is a net positive piece of the puzzle for sure though.

If we go into Nov and Nino is still weak hopefully we see a southern storm track set up. If the ski areas in southern ca/co and nm start piling up a base in Nov it usually means it will continue during the first half of winter more often than not. Would be nice to get some nao help this year too.It's been on a multi year hiatus.

Well said. Those directly echo my thoughts at this time. And whenever the storms set up in that type of track from Southern California through the mid atlantic I usually end up with pretty awesome snows. (I don't live in the mid atlantic I live on the Ozark Plateau of eastern Oklahoma.)

People around here don't love winter quite as much as you folks and myself do. Lol. When I start talking about winter at this time of year, people cringe at the thought. Either way, I hope both myself and the mid atlantic fare pretty well this year. New England can't have ALL the fun 2 years in a row right. Lol

[StudentOfClimatology]

Agreed. Though right now enso isn't looking to be a primary driver. That could change but the near total collapse the last few months was completely unexpected by anyone just a few short months ago.

West based warmth in the basin (even if modest) is a net positive piece of the puzzle for sure though.

If we go into Nov and Nino is still weak hopefully we see a southern storm track set up. If the ski areas in southern ca/co and nm start piling up a base in Nov it usually means it will continue during the first half of winter more often than not. Would be nice to get some nao help this year too.It's been on a multi year hiatus.

I agree, though I'm still a bit worried. The latest WWB is something very typical of Niño forcing. Omegas and Walker cell look like something I'd expect in an East-based event, too.

I also think the NPAC is somewhat overrated. The chicken-egg argument has merit, but I don't see why tropical/stratospheric forcings wouldn't dominate the NPAC..in January 2013, the shift in the coupled tropical/stratospheric system associated with the SSW event forced a large -EPO that has persisted to this day, warming the NPAC and cooling the Arctic/NATL as well..

[wildweatherman179]

I agree, though I'm still a bit worried. The latest WWB is something very typical of Niño forcing. Omegas and Walker cell look like something I'd expect in an East-based event, too.

I also think the NPAC is somewhat overrated. The chicken-egg argument has merit, but I don't see why tropical/stratospheric forcings wouldn't dominate the NPAC..in January 2013, the shift in the coupled tropical/stratospheric system associated with the SSW event forced a large -EPO that has persisted to this day, warming the NPAC and cooling the Arctic/NATL as well..

I would agree to a degree on the NPAC. In shorter durations of time and/or at lower heat contents I would fully agree that it is overrated. However, given the duration, size and record heat content in 2013 I believe it has been very signifigant. Just an opinion though.

[Bob Chill]

I agree, though I'm still a bit worried. The latest WWB is something very typical of Niño forcing. Omegas and Walker cell look like something I'd expect in an East-based event, too.

I also think the NPAC is somewhat overrated. The chicken-egg argument has merit, but I don't see why tropical/stratospheric forcings wouldn't dominate the NPAC..in January 2013, the shift in the coupled tropical/stratospheric system associated with the SSW event forced a large -EPO that has persisted to this day, warming the NPAC and cooling the Arctic/NATL as well..

I'm hoping the npac ssta's are an insurance policy against an unfavorable persistent vortex making a home. One thing that can make snow weenies cry bloody murder is a Pac air highway with no blocking. We would have plenty of precip chances but the wrong type. Lol.

We haven't had much zonal flow for a while now. 12-13 was loaded with it. I'll have to pull some 500mb plots from the weak nino's we had 8-10 years ago. They were warm here. We got a couple decent storms but the winters on the whole had low # of events and were AN temp wise. I don't remember why though.

[Deck Pic]

I'm starting to look at some stuff....I don't think analogs will be that helpful this winter, but what do people think about 79-80..it's been piquing my interest