metalicwx366 Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Bottom line. Read more, post less. It seems you only post to take some pot shot at those who are actually posting about the storm (well outside of Brick). The fact is, you live in Waycross GA, your experience with cold air damming probably consists of a visit up to Athens one time. It's very simple experience tells us that typically models do not handle CAD well and often it is colder than what is being depicted. It seems most have a very realistic approach to this system with many feeling there won't be anything major. However there are real reasons take this seriously as it could over perform. Again, read more and please post less.Woah buddy. Didn't see this post till now. OK first off, you guys sound ridiculous with every winter event. With every winter event a new model bias is invented it seems, "oh the GFS usually underestimates the strength of HP when it is located 53 miles WSW of Charlotte. It does much better in situations where the HP is 52 miles WSW of Charlotte. Of course we have to find the strengths and weaknesses of each model, but you guys only do it to where it favors you the most wintry precip potential. It doesn't matter if I don't live in a CAD area. I see you guys posting about it most of the time and I don't say anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Mine is on. I don't screw around with hot when it's sleepy time...lol +1 right there buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Christmas. If there are presents, most certainly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Woah buddy. Didn't see this post till now. OK first off, you guys sound ridiculous with every winter event. With every winter event a new model bias is invented it seems, "oh the GFS usually underestimates the strength of HP when it is located 53 miles WSW of Charlotte. It does much better in situations where the HP is 52 miles WSW of Charlotte. Of course we have to find the strengths and weaknesses of each model, but you guys only do it to where it favors you the most wintry precip potential. It doesn't matter if I don't live in a CAD area. I see you guys posting about it most of the time and I don't say anything.So you think we should ignore know biases that have been present in past classic CAD events and blindly follow the models that show the least wintry solution? I see what you're saying about model hugging, and it happens frequently on weather boards, especially when we've been starved of winter events thw past couple years. But certain model biases exist, I'm not smart enough to tell you exactly why they do but they do. The NAM can more accurately model surface temps because it's a higher resolution model, it "can see" the higher terrain better and models the trapping of cold air at the surface more accurately because of that. What I said yesterday was the NAM is notoriously bad with QPF. Usually with wound up systems that involve phasingit over estimates amounts by quite a bit. I've never really paid attention to it in an overrunning sitiuation so the low QPF amounts it has showed could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 tldr, and that's how it should be in bold.I shouldn't have posted in that thread. Lol why are you talking? You aren't going to see anything but a two hour period of freezing rain if you reach 32. Disc and a few others will get the most action before changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Whining is at an all time high...I am willing to nominate an entire state for WOTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 So you think we should ignore know biases that have been present in past classic CAD events and blindly follow the models that show the least wintry solution? I see what you're saying about model hugging, and it happens frequently on weather boards, especially when we've been starved of winter events thw past couple years. But certain model biases exist, I'm not smart enough to tell you exactly why they do but they do. The NAM can more accurately model surface temps because it's a higher resolution model, it "can see" the higher terrain better and models the trapping of cold air at the surface more accurately because of that. What I said yesterday was the NAM is notoriously bad with QPF. Usually with wound up systems that involve phasingit over estimates amounts by quite a bit. I've never really paid attention to it in an overrunning sitiuation so the low QPF amounts it has showed could happen. No I'm not saying that. I'm just saying it seems like a new ridiculous bias is created with every CAD event that happens up there. You don't hear about any of this stuff in other forums except for the Euro bias of holding back energy in the SW or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I shouldn't have posted in that thread. Lol why are you talking? You aren't going to see anything but a two hour period of freezing rain if you reach 32. Disc and a few others will get the most action before changing over. Debating on whether to travel to Mount Airy just to report some obs for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Debating on whether to travel to Mount Airy just to report some obs for you.Yeah go ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Here's to no rain/ice in Charlotte tonight till after the game!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It will never get cold....the sky is falling...really people, it's time to come up for some air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Debating on whether to travel to Mount Airy just to report some obs for you. It's not that far from Wilkesboro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Wait............what's wrong with a weather nut? lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Nothing.... I said "weenie weather nut". You're not a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I witnessed the great Wilkes when I lurked here for some time. No way am I even like him. His bashing on Robert and others was just flat out sad. I wouldn't have even signed up here if all the good mets still posted here I would have just read their thoughts. Few and far between now. I don't feel bad to post simple stuff that would have gotten in the way when mets often posted. Then please tell us why did you sign up? Did you think that you were going to enlighten us with your expert analysis of atmospheric science? ......LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Then please tell us why did you sign up? Did you think that you were going to enlighten us with your expert analysis of atmospheric science? ......LOL :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Then please tell us why did you sign up? Did you think that you were going to enlighten us with your expert analysis of atmospheric science? ......LOL That statement puzzled me as well. I guess he had to wait until he standards lowered enough. It reminds me of that old joke about the guy that would never join a club that would have him for a member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Then please tell us why did you sign up? Did you think that you were going to enlighten us with your expert analysis of atmospheric science? ......LOL Nah I just didn't want to junk up the threads. I prefered listening over talking but then the reading material became less and less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 What a banter thread. We are only in the first days of December and people are going crazy about the pattern. Going to be a long couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Nah I just didn't want to junk up the threads. I prefered listening over talking but then the reading material became less and less.This made my head hurt. That makes absolutely no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Nah I just didn't want to junk up the threads. I prefered listening over talking but then the reading material became less and less. Have you slept? Every time I come to catch up on the board, all I see is your posts... LOL. It looks like you were posting through the night too. I'm not giving you a hard time, just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Not sure what to think of any ice here. Models keep going back and forth with temps and amount of precip. Going to be one of those things where we don't know until it happens, which is usually the case here. Meanwhile, I had to fix a clogged toilet this morning. What is it about little kids that they want to put so much toilet paper in there? Took the kids to see Santa this morning, too. That was nice. There is a great Santa here in Wake Forest. Real beard and all. Watching Polar Express now. Awesome movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Wake Forest High playing for the 4AA football state title next Saturday, and my alma mater Southern Durham will be playing for the state 3AA title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Have you slept? Every time I come to catch up on the board, all I see is your posts... LOL. It looks like you were posting through the night too. I'm not giving you a hard time, just curious. Yea I got sleep. I get on here during the TV commercials and carry my phone to bring the discussion with me if I am away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yea I got sleep. I get on here during the TV commercials and carry my phone to bring the discussion with me if I am away. Look boys and girls.....we have ourselves another candidate for weenie of the year..... Crawdud.... he's Wilkes reincarnated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Nah I just didn't want to junk up the threads. I prefered listening over talking but then the reading material became less and less. You should continue listening rather than talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I feel the love in the SE crew today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Is it going to ice in Raleigh? That's all I care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Is it going to ice in Raleigh? That's all I care about. Imo.....No. What do u think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I don't see how. I just passed the Farmers Market in Greensboro about an hour ago and the temp said 48. I don't see how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Dude I have nothing against you. But it's obvious you're WilkesDude. If not then you're his damn twin brother lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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