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December 24-25 Snowstorm


Jim Martin

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Does the Euro show any precip getting into S. Illinois?

Well he went on to say:

hr 96 h5 low opened up over texarkana...sub 1016 low over southern la somewhere northern stream continuing to dive in....lgt precip ky south...mod precip over la and ark

hr 102 sub 1016 low over mobile lgt precip ky south mod precip over la and southern ms

If it did, it would probably be pretty light?

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hr 132 sub 984 just east of orf...h5 low is now starting to capture storm ...way more exspanisive precip shield...lgt to mod precip back to wv .....lgt to mod precip phl southern nj...dc bout to get into mod precip...delmarva getting raked

interesting....132 hrs out and the euro showing a powerhouse coastal...

now we wait, suddenly i feel a little tension in the brakes

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hr 132 sub 984 just east of orf...h5 low is now starting to capture storm ...way more exspanisive precip shield...lgt to mod precip back to wv .....lgt to mod precip phl southern nj...dc bout to get into mod precip...delmarva getting raked

interesting....132 hrs out and the euro showing a powerhouse coastal...

now we wait, suddenly i feel a little tension in the brakes

what are we waiting for? It seems like our only chance is if we ride the gfs and hope we get the precip it is showing or hope the euro takes an apps runner track, so what a 250 mile nw trend 3 days out? I made you a bus last page lol.

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Well buckeye we have two options...........

We pray that thing thing comes North and bowls across the Upper Tenn/Lower Ohio Valley

or.............

We pray that this thing winds up enough that it rides the spine

at this point our best option is 2..... simply because all the modelling is tracking the energy way too far south for us. 132 hr placement of a bomb just east of richmond is enough time for things in the atmosphere to jumble around and bring it even further west.... If models lock into a coastal without any signs of a westward trend by this time tomorrow, than the bus may at that point be air born.

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Good LES signal at least for NE IL, N IN if the 12z Euro pans out with the EC bomb.

I'm kind of torn, big east coast bombs often do set up are best LE events, but on the flip side, "best LE events" on this side is really only a couple inches and i don't like the implications are large, slow NE low has for our chances down the road. I'm hoping it goes OTS off the coast of Jacksonville, FL.

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at this point our best option is 2..... simply because all the modelling is tracking the energy way too far south for us. 132 hr placement of a bomb just east of richmond is enough time for things in the atmosphere to jumble around and bring it even further west.... If models lock into a coastal without any signs of a westward trend by this time tomorrow, than the bus may at that point be air born.

Cant believe you're still holding on. Im just riding the gfs. To me that is the only realistic hope at this point.

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Cant believe you're still holding on. Im just riding the gfs. To me that is the only realistic hope at this point.

you seriously think 132 hrs on the euro is a lock....this season? granted, it could go babk east, or it could hold, or the northern stream could drop in 12 hours quicker and it's a whole new ball game. I think im abandoning the west to eaast snows at this point (at least significant snows). I bet most models start showing the eastcoast bomb or some version of it now.

edit: im thinking about a 5% chance that we see sig snow from the east.....but again, my brakes are severed, zero vis, and hairpin turn ahead...lol

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Well buckeye we have two options...........

We pray that thing thing comes North and bowls across the Upper Tenn/Lower Ohio Valley

or.............

We pray that this thing winds up enough that it rides the spine

I was looking the EURO H5 plots at 120 and I was thinking this storm is an inch away from coming inland. Good news is that with the EURO trending slower with each subsequent run, we've still got lots of time for adjustments.

The only thing working against us is poor Apps runner climo.

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you seriously think 132 hrs on the euro is a lock....this season? granted, it could go babk east, or it could hold, or the northern stream could drop in 12 hours quicker and it's a whole new ball game. I think im abandoning the west to eaast snows at this point (at least significant snows). I bet most models start showing the eastcoast bomb or some version of it now.

edit: im thinking about a 5% chance that we see sig snow from the east.....but again, my brakes are severed, zero vis, and hairpin turn ahead...lol

here ill give u some hope

SnowTotals-07Jan96.jpg

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I was looking the EURO H5 plots at 120 and I was thinking this storm is an inch away from coming inland. Good news is that with the EURO trending slower with each subsequent run, we've still got lots of time for adjustments.

The only thing working against us is poor Apps runner climo.

this is not supposed to be millerA KU climo either though. There's additional factor here....not just the timing of the sw, but how quickly that northern stream can drop in..... it's an incredible long shot but it's all we got lol

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