November 2013 General Discussion

[Hoosier]

Sunday could be very windy if mixing isn't kept in check.

[michsnowfreak]

After a cold 20F this morning, DTW made it up to a dry 39F. I cannot believe there is STILL a T of snow in the shade and shaded rooftops lol.

[hm8]

Nice shot of the recent snowfall from the Suomi NPP

 

[Geos]

34° now with the wind roaring out there. Gusts have been around 35 mph. Maybe the leaves will blow out of my yard, so I don't have to deal with them.

[nwburbschaser]

34° now with the wind roaring out there. Gusts have been around 35 mph. Maybe the leaves will blow out of my yard, so I don't have to deal with them.

 

I had the same thought cross my mind.  Too bad things don't work like that. 

[Geos]

I had the same thought cross my mind.  Too bad things don't work like that. 

 

Haha - I'll get the neighbors leaves from upwind.

 

I guess the weekend will be our quick Indian Summer and then back to cold.

[stormtrackertf]

The past few nights in the low-20's really killed off any plant life that was still going outside. Up until Monday night, we hadn't had a "true" Freeze here in my inner-city location. Never seen everything all go in literally one night like that as far as I can remember, being in the urban heat island.

Also created an interesting phenomena (at least for me) where several trees on my street were still in full green leaf on Monday. As of Wednesday, most of them lost ALL of their leaves over the course of 2 days. It was actually pretty cool looking seeing them rain down on everything so quickly.

[Geos]

Last of the snow melting away this morning. Up to 43°, low 32° this morning.

[RogueWaves]

The past few nights in the low-20's really killed off any plant life that was still going outside. Up until Monday night, we hadn't had a "true" Freeze here in my inner-city location. Never seen everything all go in literally one night like that as far as I can remember, being in the urban heat island.

Also created an interesting phenomena (at least for me) where several trees on my street were still in full green leaf on Monday. As of Wednesday, most of them lost ALL of their leaves over the course of 2 days. It was actually pretty cool looking seeing them rain down on everything so quickly.

 

So it wasn't my imagination that the trees were like rushed across the finish line of autumn practically overnight. My work office is here:

 

and believe it or not, half the green leaves are on the trees, half on top of the snow. Happened crazy fast!

[cyclone77]

52 today and breezy.  Last few spots of snow melted off this morning. 

 

Pretty beefy wording from DVN concerning Sunday.  Don't see this very often in mid November around here. 

SHOULD IT
OCCUR...AND THE ECMWF TIMING/LOCATION OF THE LOW BE
CORRECT...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES ARE A THREAT IN
EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS SUNDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE...AND SHOULD THE ECMWF OR UKMET SOLUTION BE
CORRECT...SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND GIVEN A SMALL
WINDOW OF SURFACE CAPE...TORNADOES.

 

Euro is the slowest of the models I've seen so far.  Most other guidance would keep severe well east and southeast of here leaving us with just a rain event. 

[IWXwx]

Overperformed here today, with a high of 53° imby and 52° at FWA. The point was 47.

 

Also, I see that SBN has a snowfall observer under contract.

[Geos]

Temperature hit the target pretty much. A rare day, the high and low was exactly what the averages were today; 48°/32°.

[harrisale]

Great satellite shot of lake effect snowfall from this week off Huron.

 

[Geos]

Awesome find Alex.

 

Balmy morning at 36°. Into the mid 40s with milky looking sunny sky. 

[harrisale]

Temps really overperforming today, about 2C above forecast. Wondering how this will play into the evolution of the weekend's system. Steady SW flow since Wednesday evening. No real moisture advection though as the air is still very dry (sub 32F dewpoint).

 

Sunny and warm at 53F right now.

[Snowstorms]

Temps really overperforming today, about 2C above forecast. Wondering how this will play into the evolution of the weekend's system. Steady SW flow since Wednesday evening. No real moisture advection though as the air is still very dry (sub 32F dewpoint).

 

Sunny and warm at 53F right now.

 

Yeah they overperformed yesterday as well. The lakes still need time to cool down, they could be aiding the warm southerly wind, giving it a boost across the surface. 

 

As i expected since October, the first 2-3 weeks of November should generally be warmer than normal for the sub-forum with cold shots in between lasting no more than 1-3 days which has been the case as we will see next week too (Mon-Wed). I still thiink we will see a generally coolish last week of November, as the zonal pattern slows down, however, we'll have a nice battle going on, gradient in nature. This may help produce a nice storm in early December depending on how the AO and EPO evolve. The Euro/GFS ensembles are still debating amongst each other on the pattern later this month. The MJO is iffy as usual and its often weary in terms of forecasting on the models,  but it enters the COD, and thereafter it may enter phases 8 and 1 which go well with my initial thoughts of a coolish late November.

 

Atleast NW Canada stays really cold. 

[Gilbertfly]

Point click has a high of 65 during the day sunday and a chance of snow sunday night....weeeeeeee

 

 

I heart fall LP bombs

[Geos]

Up to 53° with light winds for once. Great day to put up x-mas lights. 

[weatherbo]

Down in northern Indiana. 53 degrees. Hope i see the storms Sunday before I have to split!

Sure different down here than the woods up north.

[michsnowfreak]

Yeah they overperformed yesterday as well. The lakes still need time to cool down, they could be aiding the warm southerly wind, giving it a boost across the surface. 

 

As i expected since October, the first 2-3 weeks of November should generally be warmer than normal for the sub-forum with cold shots in between lasting no more than 1-3 days which has been the case as we will see next week too (Mon-Wed). I still thiink we will see a generally coolish last week of November, as the zonal pattern slows down, however, we'll have a nice battle going on, gradient in nature. This may help produce a nice storm in early December depending on how the AO and EPO evolve. The Euro/GFS ensembles are still debating amongst each other on the pattern later this month. The MJO is iffy as usual and its often weary in terms of forecasting on the models,  but it enters the COD, and thereafter it may enter phases 8 and 1 which go well with my initial thoughts of a coolish late November.

 

Atleast NW Canada stays really cold. 

[Geos]

@ the map above^, no surprise there! Been a chilly month overall. This weekend will probably be the only and last chance to reach 60° this month here.

[Snowstorms]

 

hmm...well i cant speak for averages across USA, as I don't know the averages but i guess my idea of slightly "warmer than normal" may have been overdone but relatively speaking, the cold shots have lasted only a few days but have been potent which overlapped the warmer temperatures in-between. This weekend looks above normal with another cold shot early next week followed by perhaps another warm-up then another cool down. 

[daddylonglegs]

One of the nicer days in some time.  Airport showing 54F, the van was showing 51F.. park was full of people this afternoon...took a long walk with the kids.    Great when there isn't a hurricane wind...just a light south breeze.

 

Weekend looks to be a total washout. 

[Chicago Storm]

hmm...well i cant speak for averages across USA, as I don't know the averages but i guess my idea of slightly "warmer than normal" may have been overdone but relatively speaking, the cold shots have lasted only a few days but have been potent which overlapped the warmer temperatures in-between. This weekend looks above normal with another cold shot early next week followed by perhaps another warm-up then another cool down. 

lol...you were wrong. Just say it.

[harrisale]

lol...you were wrong. Just say it.

 

Snowstorms going all Rob Ford on us Deny, deny, deny.

[Jonger]

hmm...well i cant speak for averages across USA, as I don't know the averages but i guess my idea of slightly "warmer than normal" may have been overdone but relatively speaking, the cold shots have lasted only a few days but have been potent which overlapped the warmer temperatures in-between. This weekend looks above normal with another cold shot early next week followed by perhaps another warm-up then another cool down. 

 

I'm thinking we finish the month around +1 to -2F. 

 

Its going to be right around normal. We will probably be around -1.0 by Monday, but -1.5F by the end of next week.

[Snowstorms]

lol...you were wrong. Just say it.

 Lol, in simple terms i guess i was wrong. I didnt expect the cold shots to be as potent as they were. Overall, the strong Aleutian Ridge and consistent -EPO kept troughs more persistent despite a strong +AO/NAO anomaly. The Pacific has huge implications amongst our weather pattern, and in long term the PDO. 

 

I'm still keen on a pattern change around Nov 22-Nov 25 period which should lead to a cooler last week of November as we head into December. This may produce a storm in Late November- early December as the two atmospheres collide and battle amongst each other. Let see.. 

 

Models show the AO tanking closer to neutral in the 7-15 day period as I had thought earlier. The +AO may break down but i dont expect any consistent -AO anomaly or any huge negative values.  

 

Snowstorms going all Rob Ford on us Deny, deny, deny.

 

Lmao, well i aint Rob Ford the 2nd haha. He's a joke, legendary hilarious mayor indeed. 

[michsnowfreak]

hmm...well i cant speak for averages across USA, as I don't know the averages but i guess my idea of slightly "warmer than normal" may have been overdone but relatively speaking, the cold shots have lasted only a few days but have been potent which overlapped the warmer temperatures in-between. This weekend looks above normal with another cold shot early next week followed by perhaps another warm-up then another cool down. 

Its really typical Fall weather (ups and downs)....but remember its November NOT January. If you arent up to speed on what Toronto's daily averages are, you make think is warmer than normal really isnt. I checked DTW, and through the first 2 weeks of November, 10 days have been below normal and 4 above normal. Im sure much of the rest of the subforum has a fairly similar stat. Bottom line, warmer than normal temperatures have not dominated this November, colder than normal have.

[Geos]

Only 4 days above normal here, excluding today. Highest high this month has only been 57°.

52° for the high today.

[DAFF]

Was finally able to catch up on some year end washing today. Think I have a little bit of a wind burn on my face too !!   Overall a great day to be outside.