wxman9 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Well, in the 1930 image the eywall convection seems to have warmed quite a bit, but the eye itself looks to have suddenly wobbled back north - I suspect the algorithm simply doesn't have the eye in the right place. I wonder if Phailin is contemplating attempting another ERC prior to landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I wonder if Phailin is contemplating attempting another ERC prior to landfall Still wondering why IMD hasn't upgraded this beast yet at any point, it's pretty obviously has been a super cyclone for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Still wondering why IMD hasn't upgraded this beast yet at any point, it's pretty obviously has been a super cyclone for some time now. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/obtrack.htm I see here they have it labelled as a very severe super cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 What a cyclone! Phailin has kept me distracted at work, which is okay with me. Saw this on Twitter: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/131010-11_meteosat7_ir_02B_Phailin_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/obtrack.htm I see here they have it labelled as a very severe super cyclone That's very severe cyclonic storm, which is below the super cyclonic storm scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The microwave shot is just insane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I remember sitting at home in NOLA when the NHC issued the disco that told us "may god help whoever is in the path". I kind of feel like this is one of those situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I remember sitting at home in NOLA when the NHC issued the disco that told us "may god help whoever is in the path". I kind of feel like this is one of those situations. Yeah, it really is scary, the size and strength of Phailin definitely reminds me of Katrina. I'm afraid millions of people don't realize how massive the storm surge and sheer power of this will be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yeah, it really is scary, the size and strength of Phailin definitely reminds me of Katrina. I'm afraid millions of people don't realize how massive the storm surge and sheer power of this will be... The countries around the BoB have been much better in recent years about evacuating people along coastal towns when a cyclone is threatening. There will still be many, many casualties but hopefully at least the people there are aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The countries around the BoB have been much better in recent years about evacuating people along coastal towns when a cyclone is threatening. There will still be many, many casualties but hopefully at least the people there are aware. Doesn't exactly help when the head of your country's meteorological agency apparently received a blow to the head recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Eyewall: 17.3N 86.5E By the way I found the source of the image and am creating an overlay for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Phenomenal shot from FY-2D Full disc WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Found this on the Indian met department site (my look at it was 17z but it may update): http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatnedist_ir.htm The radars don't go out far enough to capture much of it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Cyclone Phailin matches the composite very well for the strongest BOB cyclones since 1990. 8 out of the 11 strongest cyclones including Phailin formed during MJO 4-6 and 7 out of 11 had a cold Nino 3.4 SST anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Doesn't exactly help when the head of your country's meteorological agency apparently received a blow to the head recently. So, according to this clown, even factoring in that they use a 10-minute average sustained maximum wind, as of two hours ago Phailin was in US equivalent 1-minute sustained winds a 119 kt or lower-end Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 i wonder how the media in India is handling this one... surely they're aware of the forecasts from JTWC and the discrepancy between their home agency right (in terms of wind estimates)?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 i wonder how the media in India is handling this one... surely they're aware of the forecasts from JTWC and the discrepancy between their home agency right (in terms of wind estimates)?? The Times of India is carrying a Reuters story about the discrepancy on their front page: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Cyclone-Phailin-may-be-worse-than-Katrina-that-hit-US-in-2005/articleshow/23983892.cms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 The eye is coming into sight on radar http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/phailin13/Phailin_12Oct13_vsk.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Might be able to hold off on another EWRC, but the eye has likely contracted to a critical point again. Such a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 About to start a new ER...though it's about 12 hours from landfall, probably not enough time to completely kill the current eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Not really seeing an outer eyewall taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 We'll get this sorted out. I think the band detached and it is at the beginning of trying to form a new eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Microwave sat makes it look like a moat may be forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Couple of questions, any site have IKE for this, any buoy sites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Couple of questions, any site have IKE for this, any buoy sites? In regard to the bouy, I may be mistaken, but I think there are only two and they are way, way, way far to the south **east now. I think set up after the 2004 tsunami. I am regurgitating this from a depth of my brain, though, so I may be mistaken. **I do not know how to direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Bay_of_Bengal.shtml ^^Ah, yes. This is what I was recalling. Pretty unfortunate that there is such a lack of scientific information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Found the IKE calculator, been hearing a lot of Katrina references, if I did the calcs right, IKE is considerable less http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Found the IKE calculator, been hearing a lot of Katrina references, if I did the calcs right, IKE is considerable less http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php That wouldn't be surprising given how ginormous Katrina was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Simply amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 That wouldn't be surprising given how ginormous Katrina was.Not taking anything away from this beast but read the Katrina references all day and was wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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