MikeGold Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12 Z NAM is coming in a little drier locally. Seems like it generates a lot of convection-perhaps that keeps it from throwing much moisture back to the West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM is the one I have been talking about, perhaps I am wrong in looking at the models but hasnt it been consistently been giving the foothills and mountains less precip each run? And no cliff jumping here Im still all in, just thought I noticed a trend from more than an inch of QPF to around .75 or a little less lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM is the one I have been talking about, perhaps I am wrong in looking at the models but hasnt it been consistently been giving the foothills and mountains less precip each run? It has been performing poorly all week but with the event being so close-one would think it would be starting to fix on the correct solution by this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM is the one I have been talking about, perhaps I am wrong in looking at the models but hasnt it been consistently been giving the foothills and mountains less precip each run? Yes, but the NAM is a useless model beyond 12 hours. It's not worth looking at for even this event. Again, it starts it later than all other models, and now is much much drier. It's gone crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It has been performing poorly all week but with the event being so close-one would think it would be starting to fix on the correct solution by this run? Don't count on it. A lot of this winter season it has been wrong even under 12 hours to go. Note that it doesn't even have this morning's radar correctly simulated. So how can we trust the rest of its solution? We can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Don't count on it. A lot of this winter season it has been wrong even under 12 hours to go. Note that it doesn't even have this morning's radar correctly simulated. So how can we trust the rest of its solution? We can't. exactly. It never picked up on the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 As HurricaneTracker has posted several times, the Euro Ensembles are gold. They haven't wavered from us being plastered. Yes, thanks. The NAM changes its solution every 6 hours. That's just not realistic. Euro has been solid. Let's see what it says at 12Z. I'll base my final call on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes, thanks. The NAM changes its solution every 6 hours. That's just not realistic. Euro has been solid. Let's see what it says at 12Z. I'll base my final call on that run. Ok I admit you might have backed me off the cliff a little bit. Ill just take the Euro and be happy. The CMC is pretty good for all of us too correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ok I admit you might have backed me off the cliff a little bit. Ill just take the Euro and be happy. The CMC is pretty good for all of us too correct? CMC better than NAM, but 00Z looked more like GFS. Euro is by far the strongest and wettest of the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, look like NWS GSP dropped the snow totals to 6 inches now :\ Hopefully y'all are right about a foot of snow. Btw, at least UNCA understands that the forecasting had been hard this week... "Please continue to check your emails and the UNC Asheville homepage for any updates, since the forecasts related to this storm have been challenging for the meteorologists." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nice banding going on in Rutherford County. Trace on grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The mean on 9z SREF went from 9.9 to 9.4 inches from 3z, but more members went above 10 inches on the newest update. Promising trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 While we are waiting for new model runs to come in..few pics from this morning. One of the weather station up top and another of my observation tower coated in rime ice with a current temp of 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 12z rgem is a bomb Euro like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM right over the outer banks! Now thats a good track for us right there, maybe a little bit more inland but it will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe a little off topic, but I find it extremely frustrating how everyone in the main thread is living and dying by the NAM right now. HT went out of his way to tell everyone why it's the worst model to choose at this time because the initialization isn't even right, but everyone still cares so much about it. Don't. Quite. Understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe a little off topic, but I find it extremely frustrating how everyone in the main thread is living and dying by the NAM right now. HT went out of his way to tell everyone why it's the worst model to choose at this time because the initialization isn't even right, but everyone still cares so much about it. Don't. Quite. Understand. Thanks. I posted my thoughts on the topic based on what I saw on water vapor. I may be wrong. But I'm no more wrong than the NAM has been. I agree with you man - the main thread is full of NAM lovers. You know what they say, live by the NAM, die by the NAM. The fact that the RGEM is coming in like the Euro should say everything. Too bad they want to toss out the RGEM! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks. I posted my thoughts on the topic based on what I saw on water vapor. I may be wrong. But I'm no more wrong than the NAM has been. I agree with you man - the main thread is full of NAM lovers. You know what they say, live by the NAM, die by the NAM. The fact that the RGEM is coming in like the Euro should say everything. Too bad they want to toss out the RGEM! LOL Yeah, it's a shame, what was the verification on the Euro and it's ensembles? 97/100. That's enough right there. Plus it and the CMC have generally held their ground on this storm. The Euro will win this one. All of this NAM hugging is wishful thinking on their part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, it's a shame, what was the verification on the Euro and it's ensembles? 97/100. That's enough right there. Plus it and the CMC have generally held their ground on this storm. The Euro will win this one. All of this NAM hugging is wishful thinking on their part. Exactly. You know, even if the Euro was showing no snow for us here in the mountains, I'd still take it over the NAM any day. They are hoping for a NAM-like solution because it frees them of the ZR and IP threat. Granted it's a dangerous winter storm and I understand the concerns with power issues and whatnot. But to hug one (not-so-good) model over a verified star like the Euro because it shows the solution you want is nuts to me. I can't wait to see the 12Z Euro. I would be utterly shocked if it changed much over the 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Euro has been all over this storm from the get go, ( always leave with the person that brought you to the dance ) !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS still shows us getting about 6", i Know its been all over the place like the NAM. Hoping the EURO delivers the goods again and Ill be all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, seems like there is a lot of cliff jumping in this thread right now. Everyone just needed to relax and enjoy the at least 8-12"+ that we're all gonna see in the higher elevations. i think asheville will see 8-12 and surrounding areas not to sure if your to far north of madison county how much you will see, kinda drops off to 4-6 northwest of asheville toward knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does anyone have any updates on the RGEM as far as QPF goes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 i think asheville will see 8-12 and surrounding areas not to sure if your to far north of madison county how much you will see, kinda drops off to 4-6 northwest of asheville toward knoxville. I'm in Boone. I'm fully anticipating 8-12"+ like everyone else in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm in Boone. I'm fully anticipating 8-12"+ like everyone else in this thread. I surely hope you and everyone else gets hammered. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Dosen't a miller A normally start showing a westward trend just before the event starts. read on another thread that it looked like the GFS and Nam were starting to inch everything west just a little. also said a Miller A tends to start shifting west which would be a great shift for some folks more west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Robert sounds the alarm: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152241818364218&set=a.403655019217.179615.757474217&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Robert sounds the alarm: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152241818364218&set=a.403655019217.179615.757474217&type=1&theater Link didn't work for me :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link didn't work for me :\ Ah sorry, im friends with him on facebook. He is going with a foot or more now from Shelby to hickory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I've been out of the loop for a while - could someone get me caught up on what the models are showing? Just skimming through the threads it seems like everyone is doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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