Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GEFS mean is significantly wetter than the GFS. How much we talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What exactly is the HRW-NMM? I'm assuming some sort of derivative of the NAM based on your later statement? Yes, I'm excited for the Euro. It's been so consistent I don't see it changing all that much. I believe it is another high res short term model run off of NAM data, not 100% sure though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How much we talking? Well into the .75 - 1.00 inch range for Asheville, and all of the NC mountains make it above the .75 mark. The GFS had around .66 inches for AVL and had a very steep cutoff into the northern mountains (Madison and Haywood didn't even get .5 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well into the .75 - 1.00 inch range for Asheville, and all of the NC mountains make it above the .75 mark. The GFS had around .66 inches for AVL and had a very steep cutoff into the northern mountains (Madison and Haywood didn't even get .5 inches). Sounds good for all involved. The whole OP GFS just seemed off to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like the 1.00-1.25 even makes it to the AVL airport, southern foothills, and Hickory area. Much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like the 1.00-1.25 even makes it to the AVL airport, southern foothills, and Hickory area. Much better. Yea, the 00z GFS had me a little bit worried, but this makes it look like that was a bit of a fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Jacob thanks for the graph. That looks much better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GEFS panel clown maps look very very good. The lowest panel is 5 inches for Asheville and the highest is a foot. Most are around 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro is still the same for Asheville. 13 inches of snow this time around assuming 10:1 ration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro is still the same for Asheville. 13 inches of snow this time around assuming 10:1 ration. Can you post the map? Glad to hear it held. So now we have solid runs from the HIRES NAM, the GEFS, the CMC, and the Euro. I think we're in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can you post the map? Glad to hear it held. So now we have solid runs from the HIRES NAM, the GEFS, the CMC, and the Euro. I think we're in good shape. Euro made everybody from Alabama to New England a big winner from this winter storm. Easily the most epic short range run of winter. Of course, totals are likely lower for few areas since Euro take ice pellets and freezing rain into snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro made everybody from Alabama to New England a big winner from this winter storm. Easily the most epic short range run of winter. Of course, totals are likely lower for few areas since Euro take ice pellets and freezing rain into snow totals. That is incredible. And the totals for the mountains I would imagine would be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The SREF mean sits right at 10 inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not showing up on radar but it has started snowing again here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol the GFS looks horrible for WNC. So many changes so close to the event that it is laughable. The Euro is going to own this storm I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol the GFS looks horrible for WNC. So many changes so close to the event that it is laughable. Th Euro is going to own this storm I believe. I don't know... still looks like we are in the .5-.75 QPF range. GSP NWS has dropped AVL to 5.2 on their snowfall forecast, but then WPC says this...8TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FROM AVL/GSP TO ROA/LYH/CHO AND JUST SOUTH OF IAD/DCA WITH A POSSIBLE FOOT NEAR SWRN NC/NWRN SC. WPC CONTINUED THE COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET WITH SUPPORT FROM THE SREF MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF A CLASSIC EAST COAST WINTER STORM. So........................ who knows. And there is also this: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't know... still looks like we are in the .5-.75 QPF range. GSP NWS has dropped AVL to 5.2 on their snowfall forecast, but then WPC says this...8TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FROM AVL/GSP TO ROA/LYH/CHO AND JUST SOUTH OF IAD/DCA WITH A POSSIBLE FOOT NEAR SWRN NC/NWRN SC. WPC CONTINUED THE COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET WITH SUPPORT FROM THE SREF MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF A CLASSIC EAST COAST WINTER STORM. So........................ who knows. And there is also this: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif Ya a lot up in the air. Well for me I am done model watching. Let's get this thing going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't know... still looks like we are in the .5-.75 QPF range. GSP NWS has dropped AVL to 5.2 on their snowfall forecast, but then WPC says this...8TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FROM AVL/GSP TO ROA/LYH/CHO AND JUST SOUTH OF IAD/DCA WITH A POSSIBLE FOOT NEAR SWRN NC/NWRN SC. WPC CONTINUED THE COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET WITH SUPPORT FROM THE SREF MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF A CLASSIC EAST COAST WINTER STORM. So........................ who knows. And there is also this: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif u would think that would be at least in the 40 percent range from all the models. the GFS is probably an outlier but GSP is conservative on the 4-8 from all I've been taking in I would have thought they would up this to 6-12 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ya a lot up in the air. Well for me I am done model watching. Let's get this thing going. Really!!!!!!!!!! It seems like this has been going on forever !!!!!! NAM is awesome, NAM is bad...east, west, north, south. It will all be over but the crying come Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Rgem lays the hammer down on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol the GFS looks horrible for WNC. So many changes so close to the event that it is laughable. The Euro is going to own this storm I believe. I think the Euro had this storm what 10 days ago and still seems to be right on plus the mean for AVL is 10 inches. this will be all snow for the mtns. with no ice or sleet mixing in so I don't know what folks are looking at here. I say lets sit back now and watch and enjoy a beautiful snowstorm and when all is said and done we'll see what the accumulations are. heck it looks like its going to snow forever and heavy unless its the ratio thing GSP is looking at. but then again during a storm they will keep raising the snow totals during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really!!!!!!!!!! It seems like this has been going on forever !!!!!! NAM is awesome, NAM is bad...east, west, north, south. It will all be over but the crying come Thursday. Lol it does. I think Don mentioned last night that this storm so far had taken a lot out of him lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Rgem lays the hammer down on us. I hope something lays the hammer down on us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I was very surprised to see that for my point location in North Asheville NWS now has forecast snow totals in a range from 3 to 7 inches for the entire storm. I haven't looked at latest GFS though - I saw the Euro and thought all was still good . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Craziest thing I've ever seen in Boone this morning. Woke up to .5" of snow near the mall in Boone with roads white, drove 1 mile to ASU campus and not a thing and roads dry as a bone. I've never seen anything like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Can anyone confirm it snowing in the southern mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I was very surprised to see that for my point location in North Asheville NWS now has forecast snow totals in a range from 3 to 7 inches for the entire storm. I haven't looked at latest GFS though - I saw the Euro and thought all was still good . . . Ya the GFS and Euro are about night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It was snowing in Old Fort around 4 O'clock. It isn't doing anything anymore. Anyone concerned that the QPF is lower on everything but the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks westmc. Well the trend is not our friend for sure. Looks like my storm total know according to the GSP snow map I only 3 inches. Lol that is what I got yesterday. Meh trying not to read into each model run and just see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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