Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Damn the 4k NAM just buries us.. crazy. going to think long and hard if I make the commute to work tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 any chance of thundersnow back this way? haven't experienced it since i moved up here from tropical nenj... I would say yes. storm will have big dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0z NAM 1.25"+ areawide ( all snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I don't think the dynamics of the initial warm advection are going to give us as much snow as the city/LI and points south. To realize these high totals, we really need that trowal to develop where the hi-res NAM and Euro suggest that it will, which will likely come down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0 z nam precip total through hr 39 Remember the times when this was a fantasy map 7 days out that never verified? This is tomorrow! PSYCH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You'll do real well if the NAM is right. As far as I'm concerned you're just as much a part of this thread's envelope as I am here in Dutchess Co. Thanks guys. Nice to be here. When I'm at the Falmouth house, I'm in the NE thread. But it's nice to be welcome here when I'm at the Litchfield house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm trying to decide if I should go to bed early so I am up at sunrise to see the heavy snow materialize. I'll probably hang in until around midnight since I'm so excited and probably won't sleep. Some forecasts have mixing and rain all the way up here but I can't see plain rain making it here. Beer/wine store was packed around 8PM - people are hunkering down. I also noticed lines at the gas stations on route 23. I stocked up on libations. I was planning on taking a benadryl and going to sleep at 11 and waking up at 6. But now the precip is moving in earlier, so I may stay up and turn on the flood lights over the pond. If I sleep from 3 to 8, that will be good. Then I can see the real good stuff from 8 to 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 CCB on RGEM.. Looking good for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 CCB on RGEM.. Looking good for the area Can you provide a link for that view? I can't find it through the Meteocentre site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I don't think the dynamics of the initial warm advection are going to give us as much snow as the city/LI and points south. To realize these high totals, we really need that trowal to develop where the hi-res NAM and Euro suggest that it will, which will likely come down to nowcasting. Agree completely. The NAM, 4km NAM, and RGEM (if you ignore its p-type issues which I don't think are well-founded) all look good for reinforced banding, but I think the storm runs the risk of leaving a sour taste in the mouth of anybody who manages to miss that. Thankfully, I think the chance of that is dwindling rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Can you provide a link for that view? I can't find it through the Meteocentre site. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Thanks! GFS kinda lame again. Seems to be the clear outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RGEM gives NEPA jackpot.. 40mm+ in some sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tonight... we... in the Hudson Valley... remain calm in front of this major meteorological event... / Yeah, Right... JACKPOT BABY! / Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tonight... we... in the Hudson Valley... remain calm in front of this major meteorological event... / Yeah, Right... JACKPOT BABY! / Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tonight... we... in the Hudson Valley... remain calm in front of this major meteorological event... / Yeah, Right... JACKPOT BABY! / Well played. You should hang around here more often. I remember first 'meeting' around Christmas 2002 tracking that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snow seems to be pushing earlier than modeled no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Flurries @ 11:40 pm 18 / 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snow seems to be pushing earlier than modeled no? Haven't really checked but keep in mind the air is somewhat dry, so radar may be a bit deceiving as to the northern extent. Even so, the stuff coming up through PA and NJ looks predominately light, with most of the meaningful precip still down through the Mid-Atlantic and deep south. As long as you're up by like 7 am, I don't think you'll miss anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick5892 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Flurries in hackettstown, NJ. 18 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Very Lt snow has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Did anybody manage to drop into the single digits? I'm at 14F, now up a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Did anybody manage to drop into the single digits? I'm at 14F, now up a few degrees. Dropped to 9f here.. Now up to 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 light snow here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 light snow here as well Ditto in Highland Lakes, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Haven't really checked but keep in mind the air is somewhat dry, so radar may be a bit deceiving as to the northern extent. Even so, the stuff coming up through PA and NJ looks predominately light, with most of the meaningful precip still down through the Mid-Atlantic and deep south. As long as you're up by like 7 am, I don't think you'll miss anything. Yea I'm glad this is a day time storm and not an overnight like the last few.. We can actually enjoy it and see snow development etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yea I'm glad this is a day time storm and not an overnight like the last few.. We can actually enjoy it and see snow development. I was just thinking about when I should get up tomorrow to se the best of the storm. I am thinking I am not going to miss much in the early morning hours but it sounds like things get kicking around 6 -7 am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ditto in Highland Lakes, NJ Same here- snowing in the OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Here is Ossining I am at 19.4. No snow yet. Looking at the Bukfit for the NAM for KHPN It is saying we will get 11 inches and then .3 inches of rain and then .2 inches of freezing rain and then another 5 inches of snow on the back end. Unfortunately I think here I am going to be in the battle zone for precip type. I am jealous of you guys up north. Congrats! Enjoy the snow. Can't wait to hear about your totals! Here's hoping that it trends colder and we all get pounded! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I was just thinking about when I should get up tomorrow to se the best of the storm. I am thinking I am not going to miss much in the early morning hours but it sounds like things get kicking around 6 -7 am or so. Dude from 8-8 pm at least should be a show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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