Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 These guys are usually pretty good but I think they may be too far NW with the 10-16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Either way I think the main forum might be unreadable at points tomorrow when the dry slot is hitting eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Of course, moving the snowbanks back yesterday I broke my lifting shovel so I'm down to the pusher I noticed a stress crack in my pusher shovel last week so I ordered a new one on Amazon (yeah, I'm 'particular' about my shovels, LOL) which was delivered...about an hour ago. Good timing, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Either way I think the main forum might be unreadable at points tomorrow when the dry slot is hitting eastern sections. Its unreadable now lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Rgem brings mixing issues as far north as northern Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The Euro was even further NW with the axis of heaviest backend precip. Just a monster band setting up from like Wayne County, PA to Saratoga. Approaching an inch of precip in the six hours up to hour 48 while KPOU and KSWF pick up just a couple additional tenths. Front end looks good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well hopefully we avoid a nasty coastal like March 2010 had dumping 4" of rain on top of the melting snow. My basement went 4" deep with that one. I could do without that again. I noticed a stress crack in my pusher shovel last week so I ordered a new one on Amazon (yeah, I'm 'particular' about my shovels, LOL) which was delivered...about an hour ago. Good timing, eh? Lucky bugger... A couple of years ago I put tarps down on the driveway before it started snowing then dragged them out to the street and left the snow there. May have to do that again I'm hoping for a slow start to this because I have an appt to get new car tires at 8am. What are we looking at? Still pre sunrise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The Euro was even further NW with the axis of heaviest backend precip. Just a monster band setting up from like Wayne County, PA to Saratoga. Approaching an inch of precip in the six hours up to hour 48 while KPOU and KSWF pick up just a couple additional tenths. Front end looks good though. There's some 6 hr precip amounts approaching an inch in the I-88 corridor! Still looks like a solid 10-15" for our area (more in NW NJ). I think we are getting to the point where we can just about lock in that 10-15" with jackpot zones that hang on to banding the longest possibly exceeding 20-24" (especially with better ratios on the backside). Right now that's modeled over NEPA into East Central NY but where the band sets up is always a wild card. Will be fun to watch it all unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro absolutely crushes the whole Hudson valley 18-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 These guys are usually pretty good but I think they may be too far NW with the 10-16". BgSiMufCQAA1JOU.png large.png I thought that too. Whatever model inputs on their future cast they are using. I noticed a good deal of mixing running right up the NY/CT border which they see as cutting back on snow amounts. I think they had it well into Litchfield County. Not sure if I buy that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Bill Evans 12pm forecast has a change over to complete rain all the way up to ulster... Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm with you on that, once we get to March first, I start shifting into spring mode. My low this morning was -13...only 14 degrees lower than what Upton was calling for... I know that the story of the cold is getting lost in with the impending storm, understandly so but I'm off today and just looked back at my records. This mornings low of -13 is the coldest that I have recorded IMBY since moving here in May 2005. The previous 'record low' was -12 in December 2005. This next stat really puts the cold into perspective, this morning marked the 8th morning with a below zero low this winter season. The second highest number of below zero lows for me were the winters of 08-09 and 10-11 which each had three days with below zero lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro absolutely crushes the whole Hudson valley 18-24" Where are you getting these figures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Where are you getting these figures? From the euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My first guess would be 12-18" ( isolated higher amounts). More west/less east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My first guess would be 12-18" ( isolated higher amounts). More west/less east Can u post the euro snow map, it won't let me... So people can see I'm not crazy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can u post the euro snow map, it won't let me... So people can see I'm not crazy lol Euro snow map on wxbell is a pretty uniform 10-14" for everybody in the Hudson Valley with a bit more into the Poconos and eastern Catskills. Hard to believe anybody approaches two feet without both the front-end precip and the best dynamic banding, which the Euro says most of us do not. Still not a good idea to take it verbatim, though, so the potential is there for some big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro snow map on wxbell is a pretty uniform 10-14" for everybody in the Hudson Valley with a bit more into the Poconos and eastern Catskills. Hard to believe anybody approaches two feet without both the front-end precip and the best dynamic banding, which the Euro says most of us do not. Still not a good idea to take it verbatim, though, so the potential is there for some big totals. Someone in Sussex, Orange, Ulster, Dutchess will come in with 24"+.. I think 12-15" is a safe bet throughout our area. its a matter of where that banding sets up. If its overhead watch out! Can easily dump 6-10" in 3hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Someone in Sussex, Orange, Ulster, Dutchess will come in with 24"+.. I think 12-15" is a safe bet throughout our area. its a matter of where that banding sets up. If its overhead watch out! Can easily dump 6-10" in 3hrs My guess is Monroe lmao lucky sob's for every storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We allowed to post Euro maps? I dont know the rules anymore. I have the snowfall map from the Euro at 54 hours and its at 10:1 ratio. Are temp ratio's gonna be coming into play with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Someone in Sussex, Orange, Ulster, Dutchess will come in with 24"+.. I think 12-15" is a safe bet throughout our area. its a matter of where that banding sets up. If its overhead watch out! Can easily dump 6-10" in 3hrs Forgot Sullivan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We allowed to post Euro maps? I dont know the rules anymore. I have the snowfall map from the Euro at 54 hours and its at 10:1 ratio. Are temp ratio's gonna be coming into play with this storm? Climo is usually 12:1 around here. Might be lower with the front end thump, but whoever gets into the CCB certainly could hit 15:1 or higher I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We allowed to post Euro maps? I dont know the rules anymore. I have the snowfall map from the Euro at 54 hours and its at 10:1 ratio. Are temp ratio's gonna be coming into play with this storm? I would think we could manage a bit better than 10:1 assuming we don't taint and the snow is falling at a respectable clip. Anybody under a decent band could see 15:1 or better. That's why snowfall forecasts based on QPF and surface temp are generally useless... a given amount of liquid equivalent may produce vastly different accumulations depending on the local processes at play within the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NWS Binghamton updated their forecast amounts: Winter Storm Warning Statement as of 2:57 PM EST on February 12, 2014 ... Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow now in effect from 1 amThursday to 10 am EST Friday... * locations... Pike County in northeastern Pennsylvania andSullivan County New York.* Accumulations... storm total snowfall of 12 to 16 inches.* Timing... steady light snow will overspread the region latertonight... or during the pre-dawn hours Thursday... generallybetween 2 and 6 am. The heaviest snowfall is expected to occurlater Thursday afternoon and Thursday night... when snowfallrates of an inch or more per hour can be anticipated. Snowshould slowly come to an end Friday morning.* Temperatures... in the lower 20s.* Winds... north 5 to 15 mph... with gusts up to 25 mph.* Impacts... slippery travel conditions will start to occur duringthe early morning commute to work and school on Thursday. Theevening rush hour on Thursday and the early morning commute onFriday should be more significantly affected.Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow... sleet... and ice are expected or occurring. This will make travelvery hazardous or impossible.Please report snowfall and/or ice amounts to the National WeatherService by calling toll free at 1-877-633-6772... or by email at[email protected]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 seems like the leading edge may get here before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My guess is Monroe lmao lucky sob's for every storm I'm here right in the Monroe snow belt -will let you know if that happens lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Binghamton just updated : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Binghamton just updated : !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Someone in Sussex, Orange, Ulster, Dutchess will come in with 24"+.. I think 12-15" is a safe bet throughout our area. its a matter of where that banding sets up. If its overhead watch out! Can easily dump 6-10" in 3hrs Agree with everything you are saying. You guys up there will do great up there and will probably jackpot. You deserve this one after being fringed all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 4k NAM remains locked-in: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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