CaryWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NCSNOW...based on the current radar it seems as if the waves are closer together than in the projected simulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 While we're in bashing mode, check out the RAH forecast for Greensboro. Saturday: A slight chance of snow after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. East wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow before 1am, then a slight chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Light northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Why would it change from snow to rain or freezing rain tomorrow night after 1 am? Am I missing something or is that as bad as I think? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Radar our west seems like it's over performing in Tn.....don't think that will mean much for us but it's interesting to see. Not too impressed with the 00z NAM though. Gotta wait and see how things go in the morning. Looking forward to the GFS but this close to the event it's kind of pointless. Maybe we can pull a rabbit out of our hat tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 While we're in bashing mode, check out the RAH forecast for Greensboro. Saturday: A slight chance of snow after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. East wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow before 1am, then a slight chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Light northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Why would it change from snow to rain or freezing rain tomorrow night after 1 am? Am I missing something or is that as bad as I think? TW RAH did a pretty good job on there AFD today about why they would call that. Of course this was before the 18z NAM did what it did....and why should they change just based off of one run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 While we're in bashing mode, check out the RAH forecast for Greensboro. Saturday: A slight chance of snow after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. East wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow before 1am, then a slight chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Light northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Why would it change from snow to rain or freezing rain tomorrow night after 1 am? Am I missing something or is that as bad as I think? TW similar to the one from ffc - with only a 20% chance whats the point anyway. a dozen raindrops v. a dozen snowflakes after reading dacula just checked and i am down a couple of degrees now to 37.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I know i'm not getting anything, But I'm pulling for all you guys and gals, That you will at least see some snow Good luck ! FoothillsNC, Nice map, But I hope it fails on my part. lol But hits everywhere you give a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 While we're in bashing mode, check out the RAH forecast for Greensboro. Saturday: A slight chance of snow after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. East wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow before 1am, then a slight chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Light northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Why would it change from snow to rain or freezing rain tomorrow night after 1 am? Am I missing something or is that as bad as I think? TW I believe the answer is after a certain time the snow growth region drys out, but there is still enough low level moisture that might produce light freezing drizzle/rain. I reserve the right to be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 i wasnt defending them completely, sorry if it seemed like it. i just know i wasnt convinced that i would see anything here (i was also really busy at work and didnt realize what was happening in atlanta until later in the afternoon, although i do agree with what i saw happening in alabama ffc should have been paying more attention) remember, it didnt start here until dinner time! i just think that one was a really close call and hard to forecast cos a degree either way would make a difference. it had been so long since i had ice that i forgot just what .10" can do! that amount usually doesnt stick to the pavement in ga (even in the huge dec 05 ice storm, travel was impossible with trees and power lines. there were icy patches on the road, but it wasnt completely glazed over like wed/thur) pls see above lol. also, kirk mellish is really good and i read him and his thoughts seem to match what a lot of others were. i didnt know it started in the morning, i thought it didnt start until about 4 in atl (rush hour). i heard an hour or two of reports from atl, then it started here so i switched into mby weenie mode i retract my statement Again, Everything was pretty obvious including when I was ranting Wednesday Morning at 6am on this matter. They ignored everything. Even when accidents were causing fatalities in Montgomery Al. They were more worried about seeing 12z models!? It was not nearly as hard of a forecast as your saying it was. Was def. not that close. Then being stubborn about warning the public made it worse. Kirk Mellish is a complete Joke. I can no longer even try to put him in a category like that after he literally got caught a few weeks back at talkweather.com actually Stealing another met on that boards thoughts and ideas about model hugging and reading copy and pasting it and using at his own without changing obvious stuff that kind of gave it away. Pretty much busted. Ouch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Here comes the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Foothills....that is a very conservative map. Probably the right call, but I would have gone with more precip back this way just based off radar trends to our west and southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 00z GFS not looking as good as the 18z NAM....it also though looks like the 18z NAM was better with the moisture in Tn. GFS has nothing in Tn. or NC hours 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Gfs will be nothing new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I believe the answer is after a certain time the snow growth region drys out, but there is still enough low level moisture that might produce light freezing drizzle/rain. I reserve the right to be wrong! OKay, I can understand that. However, they should have said freezing drizzle which is VERY common in the above scenario. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Gfs will be nothing new Nope at 18 looks like it's heading OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not looking nearly as good as 00z NAM or GFS...who cares anyways it's a nowcast situation, what will fall will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 18 hour 700 mb omega looks interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Temperatures are starting to fall in La Grange (about 45 miles north of Columbus), they are at 39 degrees right now, so tomorrow could be interesting in Northern Georgia if there is enough moisture, which we have plenty of to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Hmmmm...at 24 is a low popping off around CAE? I'm still horrible at reading the maps. Looks like some heavier moisture just appeared around there to CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Foothills....that is a very conservative map. Probably the right call, but I would have gone with more precip back this way just based off radar trends to our west and southwest. that stuff in Tenn and Ark is forecast to peter out. New band will probably form in Alabama, but the gist of all this is "not much" and very spotty, until it begins consolidating in central and southern NC from CLT and much of eastern 2/3 of SC. Nothing really organized until east in th Carolinas. It looks like about what I thought the radar would look, but i'm watching to see if anything in Alabama organizes, but it shouldn't until early tmorrow anyway. All in all, still not impressed except for the RDU area and northeast of there, maybe some pockets of 1" southwest of there but east of CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 two degree drop in 1 hour.. now at 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 For CLT east up to RDU this wasn't a bad run...points west though will not like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Hmmmm...at 24 is a low popping off around CAE? I'm still horrible at reading the maps. That would be the 850, which we have seen hints of for the past 48, and aiding waa into the Coastal Plain. Question is, can it survive to the coast and deepen, or does it get lost around Fayetteville, only to strengthen once offshore. Big implications here, even more so for the center of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Hmmmm...at 24 is a low popping off around CAE? I'm still horrible at reading the maps. Looks like some heavier moisture just appeared around there to CLT. a weak 850 low forms over my house at 21 z The model has been back and forth with that feature. Still doesn't drop any thing here though, and my temps are +.5for most of the "event" Charlotte is above zero as well til after 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Good run for RDU it might be .2 - .3 falling as snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Birmingham NWS now mentioning "moderate snow" possible. Any mets want to chime in? AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 945 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2010 .UPDATE...OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WEATHER. && .DISCUSSION... NEW NAM MODEL HAS ARRIVED AND IT IS WETTER AND COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE NAM MODEL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IS UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE PREMISE IS THAT STRONGER FORCING WILL CAUSE HEAVY PCPN AND FORCE THE SOUNDING TO SATURATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE NEAR THE ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM...THUS ELIMINATING ANY WARM NOSE. I AM NOT CONFIDENT TO THROW ALL MY CARDS IN ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT INCLINED TO STEP AWAY FROM THE FREEZING RAIN PCPN AND GO MORE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 THAT WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...AND ANY SNOW WILL BE WET DUE TO SOUNDING NEAR ZERO ISOTHERM...AND IT COULD FREEZE ONCE IT LANDS ON ELEVATED SURFACES. A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL STAY JUST ABOVE THE CRITICAL 32 DEGREE MARK WHICH IS WHY I AM NOT GOING WITH ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. IF NAM DOES VERIFY...THERE VERY WELL COULD BE A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6:00 AM AND 9:00 AM SATURDAY. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NCSNOW...based on the current radar it seems as if the waves are closer together than in the projected simulation. I think so to, espeacilly northern wave is futher east than what Nam had progged. Wish the GFS had a Sims I could use to line up with it's output. The current radar makes it look worse than the Nam iMO. It has the Northern wave way futher back than where the radar is indicating it is at the current moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Very flat wave throughout. Very weak, very little cold advection. I'm probably too high on my 1" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 a weak 850 low forms over my house at 21 z The model has been back and forth with that feature. Still doesn't drop any thing here though, and my temps are +.5for most of the "event" Charlotte is above zero as well til after 18z. Yep when the moisture is here the temps aren't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I"m ready to ditch this pattern. The block is in the wrong spot (for me). The clippers in nw flow can still manage central NC from 40 north and the mountains and west of Apps , but for this area its dead precip wise. I'd like to see a central US trough, not east coast one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED SPELLING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1048 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-181100- AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE... WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD... HENDERSONVILLE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE... RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS 1048 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AROUND NOON. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT...ROADS...PARTICULARLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL QUICKLY BECOME SLICK AND TREACHEROUS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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