TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 The 18z SHIPS and LGEM bring Dorian up to 53kt and 60 kt, respectively, by 120 hours. If Dorian can survive the next 36 hours, conditions should become quite favorable in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 The 18z SHIPS and LGEM bring Dorian up to 53kt and 60 kt, respectively, by 120 hours. If Dorian can survive the next 36 hours, conditions should become quite favorable in the Bahamas. Most of the guidance from yesterday that maintained Dorian as a TC had an uptick in intensity around day 5-6. Looking at the current state I'm not sure it will survive the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Now back to following the struggling cyclone. It will probably go thru the naked swirl process that has been the theme the past few seasons at some point in it's life. Naked swirl alert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Naked swirl alert! That potential naked swirl looks sick even for a naked swirl. Looks, just eyeballing texture, like stratus/strato-cu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 The 18z SHIPS and LGEM bring Dorian up to 53kt and 60 kt, respectively, by 120 hours. If Dorian can survive the next 36 hours, conditions should become quite favorable in the Bahamas. Completely disregarding the fact that Dorian's mid and low level circulations are pretty much disjointed from one another and that satellite derived winds show that the system is in serious danger of opening up into a wave at least within the next 12 hours... I'm still not seeing an environment that's "quite favorable" for any type of intensification or even redevelopment before this runs into Hispaniola and possibly even western Cuba. RH vales stay below 50% through 120 hours, shear averages greater than 15 knots throughout the entire period, and the upper level environment provided by the TUTT will probably inhibit any convective organization that Dorian, or it's remnants, try to pull off. It's time to put this one down. It had a good run since it left Africa and it got lucky a few times, but conditions just aren't right to sustain this type of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 I'm just seeing the 850 mb 24 hour time step of the 12Z Euro, but it could enhance showers in South Florida Thursday before completely shearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Ouch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Completely disregarding the fact that Dorian's mid and low level circulations are pretty much disjointed from one another and that satellite derived winds show that the system is in serious danger of opening up into a wave at least within the next 12 hours... I'm still not seeing an environment that's "quite favorable" for any type of intensification or even redevelopment before this runs into Hispaniola and possibly even western Cuba. RH vales stay below 50% through 120 hours, shear averages greater than 15 knots throughout the entire period, and the upper level environment provided by the TUTT will probably inhibit any convective organization that Dorian, or it's remnants, try to pull off. It's time to put this one down. It had a good run since it left Africa and it got lucky a few times, but conditions just aren't right to sustain this type of system. 20130726.1845.goes13.x.vis1km_high.04LDORIAN.40kts-1010mb-176N-448W.100pc.jpg I am well aware that Dorian may dissipate over the next few hours, that's why I made note of such in my post. If we take a look at satellite imagery, the TUTT northeast of the Bahamas is very convective this afternoon. Those storms are producing latent heat and warming the troposphere, which should allow the feature to weaken over the coming days. The GFS has been predicting this ever since Dorian formed. In addition, the GFS shows the system retaining its anticyclone as it enters the region. But again, it's all dependent on whether Dorian remains a tropical cyclone. With warm waters and above-average vertical instability, I wouldn't expect dry air to be as detrimental as it has been if Dorian enters the Bahamas. As far as track, it's not set in stone this is moving into Hispaniola or Cuba. The National Hurricane Center official track forecast takes this north of the Greater Antilles, and the ECMWF takes this into southern Florida before being picked up by the trough. If anything, this is more likely than the GFS's southwest dive into the aforementioned locations (unless, again, it dissipates). I mean, I don't what else to say other than we'll see. If Dorian dies out, then yeah, it's probably not of concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 FWIW...the 12Z GFS Ensemble tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 FWIW...the 12Z GFS Ensemble tracks. If one looks at GEFS means SLP, it would appear AP18, the curver, is the only one that ever becomes a 1008 mb or below system. Judging from GFS operational at 12Z, there won't be enough left in a week for redevelopment to occur in the Gulf. 12Z FIM 9 at 168 still has a suggestion of a wave. It still has near 30 knot winds on the Northern edge of the open wave until it hits Cuba, but a weak 850 mb wind shift and RH max is past Cuba at 168 hours, so 1/64ths optimistic on at least a lemon in the Gulf next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR...DORIAN HASBECOME EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. VISIBLESATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOMEDISPLACED TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION.ALSO...ANIMATION OF THE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CIRCULATION IS BARELYCLOSED AT THIS TIME. USING A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SABAND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THEOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST NOW SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING WITHDISSIPATION BY DAY 5...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRFGUIDANCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULDDEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.THE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS MOVING RAPIDLYWESTWARD...SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A STRONGLOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN ISFORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THISSHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERALDAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OFTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCEENVELOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHBUT THAT MODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE NOR FORECAST A CLOSED SURFACECIRCULATION.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 26/2100Z 17.8N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH12H 27/0600Z 18.2N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 27/1800Z 18.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH36H 28/0600Z 19.0N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH48H 28/1800Z 19.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH72H 29/1800Z 20.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH96H 30/1800Z 20.5N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED$FORECASTER PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 lo que ha hecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Dorian looks like my golf game, ugly at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Stick a fork in it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Enter 50th post to declare death of a system that was supposed to die anyway early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Should see it declared an open wave soon. Ah well...it was a nice MDR storm for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 DORIAN APPEARS TO STILL HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW- TO MID-LEVELCIRCULATION IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTSMEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...BUT IT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEPCONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE DORIAN AREMNANT LOW IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THECIRCULATION IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TOLESSEN...NEW CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP. THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEPTHE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ADVISORY CYCLES AND MONITOR THEEVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. SHIPS AND LGEM RE-INTENSIFY THECYCLONE A LITTLE BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THEECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH GRADUALLY WEAKEN DORIAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Stick a fork in it! This is making quite a comeback tonight. The strongest convection yet is refiring directly over the LLC just a mere hours after being written off by the NHC and many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 This is making quite a comeback tonight. The strongest convection yet is refiring directly over the LLC just a mere hours after being written off by the NHC and many others. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/avn-animated.gif Intensity forecasting is a b****, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2013 Author Share Posted July 27, 2013 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/avn-animated.gif Intensity forecasting is a b****, no doubt. Still little to no banding features. Odds are this falls apart again tomorrow given all the dry air that surrounds the circulation. This is more likely a last hurrah rather than a comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 NHC discussion throws Dorian under the bus and concludes "WILL PROBABLY DIE OUT IN FOUR DAYS ... OR HOPEFULLY SOONER." You'd want to be very confident of that outcome given the sort of publicity that would follow if the thing decides to blow up into a hurricane near Florida. All of which is just a preamble to this friendly reminder to tropical contest entrants to post an August forecast and update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 This is making quite a comeback tonight. The strongest convection yet is refiring directly over the LLC just a mere hours after being written off by the NHC and many others. True, I was more referring to sticking a fork in it while it's dying so that it doesn't come back. I'd rather it die within half a day than over 4 days. Even the NHC noted they have similar feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Except for no evidence of West winds, Dorian looks like a healthy wave on the first few visible frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2013 Author Share Posted July 27, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Looking at water vapor and CIMMS, Dorian has moved underneath a small upper-level ridge. But I'm not sure if it will be able to take advantage of it. With all the dry.air still south and west. It just may survive another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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