weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 Impossible. CAp too strong. We won't even have clouds It is going to be tough to generate much though unless the forcing is much stronger than modeled. Even the storms that develop could struggle to grow very tall...though steeper lapse rates could help and if we can get MLcapes above 1500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 NWS Boston @NWSBoston2m Heat Advisory expanded into tomorrow for all of SNE. Heads up on heat & t-storms by end of the week: http://ow.ly/i/2CXPj #heatwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 There are many variables as far as severe weather goes, especially up here in the Northeast. Just because one parameter is "marginal" or "unimpressive" does not mean that severe thunderstorms cannot happen. True but it tends to diminish the chances in what is an already relatively poor area of the country for big-time severe. We have less margin for error up in New England than they do in the Midwest where one ingredient missing can be overcome by like 4000kj of CAPE or something. Here we want as many favorable variables as possible lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 True but it tends to diminish the chances in what is an already relatively poor area of the country for big-time severe. We have less margin for error up in New England than they do in the Midwest where one ingredient missing can be overcome by like 4000kj of CAPE or something. Here we want as many favorable variables as possible lol. an EML is probably the best ingredient to have for svr. it's difficult for one to make it this far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Impossible. CAp too strong. We won't even have clouds You did say pulsing storms "for many." We can just see how many of us are enjoying storms on Thursday, rather than over-reacting to caution flags by the red taggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 You did say pulsing storms "for many." We can just see how many of us are enjoying storms on Thursday, rather than over-reacting to caution flags by the red taggers. How long have you been auditioning for a mod role? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 How long have you been auditioning for a mod role? lol... how long have you been trolling, spinning, and hyping? Don't get upset when folks try to compare your thoughts with what really happens. It's usually good for some entertainment (for many) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 It's too bad we're so capped on Friday. Wind fields look great - but 700mb temps are like +13 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 It's too bad we're so capped on Friday. Wind fields look great - but 700mb temps are like +13 lol. Euro has virtually no QPF and I can't find anything aloft to really help out. Thursday is a long shot, but the nrn areas of SNE like nrn MA could clipped on the SW flank of any storms that move through NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Euro has virtually no QPF and I can't find anything aloft to really help out. Thursday is a long shot, but the nrn areas of SNE like nrn MA could clipped on the SW flank of any storms that move through NNE.It seems we should be looking for stuff to pop overhead rather than storms moving south I to area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Euro has virtually no QPF and I can't find anything aloft to really help out. Thursday is a long shot, but the nrn areas of SNE like nrn MA could clipped on the SW flank of any storms that move through NNE. Yeah Thursday has more potential than Friday... but meh. Wind fields on Thursday suck though the cap is weaker. Wind fields on Friday are pretty robust but the cap is even more robust. We'll have to wait for Saturday for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Yeah Thursday has more potential than Friday... but meh. Wind fields on Thursday suck though the cap is weaker. Wind fields on Friday are pretty robust but the cap is even more robust. We'll have to wait for Saturday for fun. I'm up at Lake Winni starting Friday so I'm hoping for something Friday or Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 It seems we should be looking for stuff to pop overhead rather than storms moving south I to area. Friday looks awful outside of cells straggling in from NY or something. Maybe it gets better as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 I'm up at Lake Winni starting Friday so I'm hoping for something Friday or Saturday. Nice. I'm solo at the station Saturday - should be an active day. Friday should be a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 I'm up at Lake Winni starting Friday so I'm hoping for something Friday or Saturday. You'll have a much better chance of seeing something roll off the mountains up there than you would at home at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Nice. I'm solo at the station Saturday - should be an active day. Friday should be a furnace. You'll have a much better chance of seeing something roll off the mountains up there than you would at home at least. They do well in the severe dept, at least compared to down here. It's always nice getting a good storm on the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 Interesting but each run of the GFS has trended a bit steeper with the 750-500 lapse rates...at least looking by bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Interesting but each run of the GFS has trended a bit steeper with the 750-500 lapse rates...at least looking by bufkit What are the values looking like for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 What are the values looking like for SNE?I just looked at 12z sounding extractions from the GFS, only looks like 6.2. meh. then again those are 6 hourly...(18z SAT and 00z SUN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 What are the values looking like for SNE? Seeing anywhere from around 6.5-7 C/KM with values mainly up around 6.7 to 6.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Seeing anywhere from around 6.5-7 C/KM with values mainly up around 6.7 to 6.8 18Z? Quincy says ~6.2 from the 12Z. I hope you're referring to the 18Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 18Z? Quincy says ~6.2 from the 12Z. I hope you're referring to the 18Z!I'm only looking on my phone. My data is 850-500, but I think Wiz is looking at 750-500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 18Z? Quincy says ~6.2 from the 12Z. I hope you're referring to the 18Z! Both 12z and 18z values on bufkit were that high...also, the 18 run keeps those higher lapse rates here much longer. Even looks like a very weak remnant EML that moves through overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 I'm only looking on my phone. My data is 850-500, but I think Wiz is looking at 750-500. correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I'm only looking on my phone. My data is 850-500, but I think Wiz is looking at 750-500. Both 12z and 18z values on bufkit were that high...also, the 18 run keeps those higher lapse rates here much longer. Even looks like a very weak remnant EML that moves through overnight Ah, thanks guys. Hope those mid-level values hold, if not increase some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Interesting but each run of the GFS has trended a bit steeper with the 750-500 lapse rates...at least looking by bufkit The 250 mb winds forecast for 18z Saturday have been increasing with each run. The stronger winds should result in greater divergence and lift beneath the right entrance region of the 250 mb jet. That increased lift may be the reason for the steeper the mid-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 The 250 mb winds forecast for 18z Saturday have been increasing with each run. The stronger winds should result in greater divergence and lift beneath the right entrance region of the 250 mb jet. That increased lift may be the reason for the steeper the mid-level lapse rates. That ULJ is pretty impressive! 18z GFS has 135 knot ULJ streak which is pretty decent for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 most of the high heat spells I can remember end with a great thunderstorm Certainly was the case in the 60s and 70s but seemingly missing recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 That ULJ is pretty impressive! 18z GFS has 135 knot ULJ streak which is pretty decent for July. Definitely. You can see how low the tropopause is for this time of year north of the jet max with some 3-4 standard deviation anomalies of 250 mb temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 Definitely. You can see how low the tropopause is for this time of year north of the jet max with some 3-4 standard deviation anomalies of 250 mb temperature. 250temp_stdanom_namer_73.gif That's insane! I've always wondered about this with jet quadrants... This is the 18z GFS run for 0z Sunday and you can see the ULJ streak and with us in the right entrance region enhancing lift...obviously the closer you are to the jet max the stronger the forcing but how far away do you really have to be before you technically aren't in the quadrant or to where it doesn't play a factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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