It's Always Sunny Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Mid-level lapse rates are modeled to be in the 6-6.5 C/KM lapse rates and actually the latest GFS run has lapse rates now up closer to 6.5-7 C/KM. When it comes to lapse rates I think people sort of have a misunderstanding about them, especially when it comes to EML's. In Ekster's EML paper, according to the research he's done, only 18% of all significant severe weather events in the Northeast had EML's...that's not really a high percentage. However, when we have EML setups with favorable lift around, they do tend to produce. As long as mid-level lapse rates are greater than 6 C/KM, they won't be a limiting factor, especially if other ingredients are in place. If we do want to worry though, it could be having previous day's convection or if we don't have any cap in place, having crap activity develop and kill lapse rates. You have the link for that paper? I don't necessarily think people are misunderstanding mid level lapse rates, I just think that some people view them as the one-all-be-all of severe weather/thunderstorm outbreaks, which as you, I, and many others know isn't always the case. I think the majority of us think northern New England is the place to watch Friday. We'll see. I'm just glad everything has held up thus far in regards to model guidance. Severe FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 There are many variables as far as severe weather goes, especially up here in the Northeast. Just because one parameter is "marginal" or "unimpressive" does not mean that severe thunderstorms cannot happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 I think we've beat this topic to death lol. Waiting is the hardest part and it's tough to find things to talk about once we all have an idea of what might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 You have the link for that paper? I don't necessarily think people are misunderstanding mid level lapse rates, I just think that some people view them as the one-all-be-all of severe weather/thunderstorm outbreaks, which as you, I, and many others know isn't always the case. I think the majority of us think northern New England is the place to watch Friday. We'll see. I'm just glad everything has held up thus far in regards to model guidance. Severe FTW. But SNE FTL. The problem with our "severe" events is that we end up having very low end events thanks to skinny CAPE profiles owed to weak mid level lapse rates. You can compensate that with strong synoptic forcing, but that isn't easy to come by at our latitude...hence why NNE has all the fun. I usually like to see MLCAPES of 1500J or greater around here. 6.5C/KM certainly can give you fun if dynamics are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 No severe but Thurs much of SNE sees a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 No severe but Thurs much of SNE sees a storm I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 But SNE FTL. The problem with our "severe" events is that we end up having very low end events thanks to skinny CAPE profiles owed to weak mid level lapse rates. You can compensate that with strong synoptic forcing, but that isn't easy to come by at our latitude...hence why NNE has all the fun. I usually like to see MLCAPES of 1500J or greater around here. 6.5C/KM certainly can give you fun if dynamics are there. Well NNE gets the synoptic forcing Friday. Our turn is Saturday as that cold front extends further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Well NNE gets the synoptic forcing Friday. Our turn is Saturday as that cold front extends further south. It looks good as long as mid level junky clouds don't mess up heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Mid-level lapse rates are modeled to be in the 6-6.5 C/KM lapse rates and actually the latest GFS run has lapse rates now up closer to 6.5-7 C/KM. When it comes to lapse rates I think people sort of have a misunderstanding about them, especially when it comes to EML's. In Ekster's EML paper, according to the research he's done, only 18% of all significant severe weather events in the Northeast had EML's...that's not really a high percentage. However, when we have EML setups with favorable lift around, they do tend to produce. As long as mid-level lapse rates are greater than 6 C/KM, they won't be a limiting factor, especially if other ingredients are in place. If we do want to worry though, it could be having previous day's convection or if we don't have any cap in place, having crap activity develop and kill lapse rates. Butttttt.... that's actually somewhat misleading. While EML days are a small percentage of sig severe days they account for a HUGE percentage of fatalities/injuries. Widespread sig severe is unlikely but it's certainly possible that we'll get a really good storm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 I don't think so. We are very warm at 700mb Thursday and especially Friday. I doubt we'll see much of anything either day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 We are very warm at 700mb Thursday and especially Friday. I doubt we'll see much of anything either day. Do you foresee any fakenados around NE CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 You have the link for that paper? I don't necessarily think people are misunderstanding mid level lapse rates, I just think that some people view them as the one-all-be-all of severe weather/thunderstorm outbreaks, which as you, I, and many others know isn't always the case. I think the majority of us think northern New England is the place to watch Friday. We'll see. I'm just glad everything has held up thus far in regards to model guidance. Severe FTW. mid-level lapse rates are certainly important, especially around here where typically we can have issues with having sufficient shear or with instability and this is where lapse rates play a bigger role. Link to the paper http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/research/BanacosEML_waf.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 mid-level lapse rates are certainly important, especially around here where typically we can have issues with having sufficient shear or with instability and this is where lapse rates play a bigger role. Link to the paper http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/research/BanacosEML_waf.pdf I agree. Thanks for the link btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 The premise of the paper wasn't necessarily to say you can only have severe with an EML, it was more or less that if an EML is present....look out baby. You should have a heightened sense of awareness if you are a forecaster around here when an EML is present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 Butttttt.... that's actually somewhat misleading. While EML days are a small percentage of sig severe days they account for a HUGE percentage of fatalities/injuries. Widespread sig severe is unlikely but it's certainly possible that we'll get a really good storm out of this. They certainly do account for a huge percentage of the fatalities/injuries and that's also partly do to the fact that they are an important ingredient for stronger tornadoes and more long tracked tornadoes (though the later is a combination of several other factors) which are more likely to cause more in the way of significant damage. This far out, widespread significant severe is not likely, but I think we could see a cluster of widespread severe with damaging winds/hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 has there ever been a significant progressive northeast derecho without an EML? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 The premise of the paper wasn't necessarily to say you can only have severe with an EML, it was more or less that if an EML is present....look out baby. You should have a heightened sense of awareness if you are a forecaster around here when an EML is present. Oh absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 I don't think so. Nice lee side trough..enough to spark some pulsers for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 has there ever been a significant northeast derecho without an EML? Nobody is thinking significant derecho are they? I don't know if we can completely rule out a "low end one" but I would probably like to at least see wind speeds in the mid levels another 10-15 knots stronger and low level winds another 10-15 knots stronger too. Although inverted-v look on soundings could enahnce downdraft potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 has there ever been a significant progressive northeast derecho without an EML?A perfect example would be last years "almost derecho" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 has there ever been a significant progressive northeast derecho without an EML? Not that I'm aware of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Nice lee side trough..enough to spark some pulsers for many Yes with an obese cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Yes with an obese cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Yes with an obese cap We're not talking about your stomach in that pic of you pushing beer in the cart. Joe D agrees THURSDAY... MODELS KEY ON LEE TROUGH BECOMING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SURFACE-BASED CAPES REACH 1500 J/KG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM... KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 well FWIW the 12z GFS actually shows a bit more of an EML look with possibly a piece of steeper lapse rates breaking off and sliding into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 We're not talking about your stomach in that pic of you pushing beer in the cart. Joe D agrees THURSDAY... MODELS KEY ON LEE TROUGH BECOMING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SURFACE-BASED CAPES REACH 1500 J/KG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM... KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. Failed to include this portion of the AFD: "STILL NEED TO OVERCOME RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES... SO NOT CONFIDENT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT GREAT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 I don't see widespread storms on Thursday, however, given the thermodynamic and decent shear aloft, any storm that does pop could be quite strong. I think we will see some isolated cells but they will have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Failed to include this portion of the AFD: "STILL NEED TO OVERCOME RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES... SO NOT CONFIDENT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT GREAT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 I don't see widespread storms on Thursday, however, given the thermodynamic and decent shear aloft, any storm that does pop could be quite strong. I think we will see some isolated cells but they will have to be watched. Impossible. CAp too strong. We won't even have clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Failed to include this portion of the AFD: "STILL NEED TO OVERCOME RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES... SO NOT CONFIDENT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT GREAT." Impossible. CAp too strong. We won't even have clouds Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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