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July 2013 Pattern and Discussion

griteater

By griteater,
in Southeastern States

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

 

Thursday sure looks wet and stormy across GA and the Carolinas with the noteworthy cold front digging southeast into the super moist environment

 

This is from the aftn SPC convective outlook for Thursday / Thurs night...

AS MB TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD...AN ASSOCIATED WEAKNESS/TROUGH IN THEMID/UP FLOW WILL DEVELOP SE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE TN VLY/GULF CSTSTATES. WITH SUCH AN UPR FEATURE IN PLACE...AND A PLUME OFRELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ALSO IN PLACE EXTENDING EWDFROM THE SRN PLNS...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ASIZABLE..ORGANIZED MCS OR TWO COULD MOVE S OR SE ACROSS PARTS OF THEMID-SOUTH AND/OVER THE VA/NC AREA. CONFIDENCE IN SUCH ASCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. BUTPARTS OF THE CURRENT 5% PROBABILISTIC FCST AREA NOW DEPICTED MAYREQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OTLKS AS STORM/MCS-SCALEDETAILS OF THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BECOME MORE CLEARLY DEFINEDTNGT/EARLY THU.

 

Here's the latest outlook (very similar to before):

 

RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DECAYING/WEAKENING COLD

   FRONT...AS WELL AS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AMIDST BACKGROUND

   CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR MID/UPPER TROUGH...WILL ALL PLAY INTO SCATTERED

   STORMS AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS LOCALLY STRENGTHENING AS DIURNAL

   DESTABILIZATION INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS STATED IN

   PREVIOUS DAY 2 OUTLOOK...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN MCS

   OR TWO COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND/OR

   VA/NC AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS

   DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF STORM-SCALE

   INTERACTIONS AND LOCALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION YET TO OCCUR.

   THUS...CONFIDENCE IN A MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER AREA DOES

   NOT CURRENTLY EXIST. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE

   SUPPORT...MARGINAL SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES...ONLY A LARGE LOW

   PROBABILITY SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS

   OUTLOOK.

We certainly don't need strong winds with the saturated ground.  As far as rainfall goes, the Canadian still looks extreme with it's depicted amounts over the next several days.  It restrengthens Chantal and moves it inland and up through CLT, with tons of rain on top of the tons of rain it shows for the previous days.  The 6Z NAM and 6Z GFS also show lots of rain for the central and eastern Carolinas.  NO FF watches in effect yet for central portions of the state.  We'll see if they start to pop up soon....

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CLTwx

CLTwx

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A snippet from the above Masters article: Soils over large areas of the Southeast U.S. are near the wettest levels ever observed for this time of year--above the 99th percentile in recorded history. It's remarkable that most of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina were in moderate or greater drought at the beginning of the year

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griteater

griteater

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Is there a good free model site that show accumulated QPF maps over various time periods, like RaleighWX's maps do?

 

I believe you are talking about the ones that show the actual numerical QPF along with the contours...if so, I don't know of a free site that provides those.  Allan had some good 'stuff' that you really can't find for free elsewhere

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GaWx

GaWx

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It looks like we are going to heat up early next week after the retrograding upper low departs into the southern plains.  Closed ridge builds in, then downsloping 850mb flow later in the week...high surface dewpoints likely too with all this ground moisture.

I'm thinking this near record high ground moisture for this time of year will prevent really hot temp.'s for the forseeable future and quite possibly for the rest of the summer.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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I believe you are talking about the ones that show the actual numerical QPF along with the contours...if so, I don't know of a free site that provides those. Allan had some good 'stuff' that you really can't find for free elsewhere

Yeah, thanks man. That's what I was talking about. You can see the 6/12 hour increments on ewall, but you can't see total qpf over 24/72/120 hour increments like you could with Allan's stuff. Hard to believe he had the only free maps that showed that, but I'm not aware of any others.

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griteater

griteater

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Yeah, thanks man. That's what I was talking about. You can see the 6/12 hour increments on ewall, but you can't see total qpf over 24/72/120 hour increments like you could with Allan's stuff. Hard to believe he had the only free maps that showed that, but I'm not aware of any others.

 

OK, you may already be aware of these, but on EWall you can get total qpf in contours over a time period...you just don't get the actual numerical qpf value for given cities displayed on the map like Allan had, which was cool.  You have to go into "Select Regional Loops" on the main page (on same line as NAM) - then select your model and the total accumulated qpf is on the bottom right, like here - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_12z/avneastloop.html

 

Also, NCEP has accumulated precip contour maps.  Ex - http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs_area_param.php?model=gfs&cycle=20130711+00+UTC&area=namer (precip_p60)

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Posted

OK, you may already be aware of these, but on EWall you can get total qpf in contours over a time period...you just don't get the actual numerical qpf value for given cities displayed on the map like Allan had, which was cool. You have to go into "Select Regional Loops" on the main page (on same line as NAM) - then select your model and the total accumulated qpf is on the bottom right, like here - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_12z/avneastloop.html

Also, NCEP has accumulated precip contour maps. Ex - http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs_area_param.php?model=gfs&cycle=20130711+00+UTC&area=namer (precip_p60)

Thanks! Why didn't I know about the ewall thing? I need training! I guess I have primarily relied on Allan's stuff (and some of the ewall products) so much that I haven't explored other products. You get kind of comfortable with the same products and tend to use those over and over. And I haven't looked at model data too much outside of winter until recently. Anyway, thanks for the help!

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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If Chantal gets her act back together and does close to what the latest GFS shows it could be pretty brutal. The river here just got below flood stage and even though it only barely got into very minor flood stage the next few days should provide enough rain to the basin to keep it right on the edge of flood stage, then bring in Chantal or her rems early next week and well it will have folks around here talking 1999 all over again,

 

Then when you combine that with what looks like  no real break in the overall wet pattern for several weeks and a possibly active tropical year we really see the stage set for some epic flooding potential across a huge hunk of the SE and all up the east coast for that matter.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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If Chantal gets her act back together and does close to what the latest GFS shows it could be pretty brutal. The river here just got below flood stage and even though it only barely got into very minor flood stage the next few days should provide enough rain to the basin to keep it right on the edge of flood stage, then bring in Chantal or her rems early next week and well it will have folks around here talking 1999 all over again,

 

Then when you combine that with what looks like  no real break in the overall wet pattern for several weeks and a possibly active tropical year we really see the stage set for some epic flooding potential across a huge hunk of the SE and all up the east coast for that matter.

Agree. And early as tomorrow eastern Carolinas get hit hard from the duo of strong convergence and onshore flow with the ridge offshore fighting the cyclonic ever increasing flow just to the west. All arrows point to southeast VA through eastern NC down to GA as being hit hard, possibly sustained tomorrow and Friday night.   And thats not considering any offshore organized moisture, but in general I like the idea of continued convergence for a while there, then transforming into onshore flow, as the upper trough in GA takes over on Sunday, combines with strong ridging to the north to funnel onshore flow again for eastern NC. By Sunday evening, some areas of easter NC will be flooded severely, IMO.  Guidance is way too low, IMO.   Same goes for the Apps later on.

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DCMetroWinston

DCMetroWinston

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Most or much of the East Coast will experience the year's most prolonged heat this week, with DC and Richmond possibly reaching 97 or so on two days.  Heat advisories have already been issued in parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania.  Weather Works and Accu Weather are saying it will be a significant East Coast heatwave that will last until Saturday:  WeatherWorks ‏@WeatherWorks 

It will be quite the #heatwave next week along the East Coast! Heat indices will be well over 100 degrees for many locations

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

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Most or much of the East Coast will experience the year's most prolonged heat this week, with DC and Richmond possibly reaching 97 or so on two days. Heat advisories have already been issued in parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Weather Works and Accu Weather are saying it will be a significant East Coast heatwave that will last until Saturday: WeatherWorks ‏@WeatherWorks

It will be quite the #heatwave next week along the East Coast! Heat indices will be well over 100 degrees for many locations

That's not a significant heatwave. Accu Weather is aggrandizing the "heatwave". Not being a backyard person, but the heat index gets above 100 almost every day down here. Well they probably aren't as use to it up there.

Eastern NC and up apparently are game on for excessive heat.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

Record cold highs potentially in Texas and Oklahoma if anyone is interested.

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Met1985

Met1985

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US Generated CFSV2 for upcoming winter continues to show cold

http://t.co/sqX7dTgqxI

xeqhMlc.png

Meh all those long range models can take a hike. I think the thing to look at this upcoming winter is how the pac is going to behave. Anyway the Euro continues to show a strong trough coming in after this short heat up. Looks stronger and stronger with each run.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

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I don't know what all this talk of hot and dry is all about. NWS shows my highest temp this week will be 90 with a 40-50% chance of rain each day.

 

 

Giving the ridge axis, a good portion of the Southeast (esp South of I-20) is going to be on the perimeter of this ridge. Deep easterly flow, high dewpoints are gonna keep things from getting out of hand for areas like Central/South GA, Alabama...etc

 

However areas like North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia...the flow is weaker, more cap in the atmosphere and more sinking air. Actual temps for North Carolina are gonna range in the 94-97 range but dewpoints east of the Apps are going to be insane...75, 77, and maybe an isolated 80 degree dewpoint...

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