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July 2013 Pattern and Discussion

griteater

By griteater,
in Southeastern States

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
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Was talking about it a little at the end of the current long range discussion thread...all signs continue to show a very unsettled Southeast US and I would target those in the Apps and east of the Apps.

 

Just looking at the 500mb features, I could easily see a cutoff develop somewhere over the Mid-South or Upper Gulf Coast Region. And we won't even throw in any possibility of a tropical feature that could develop over the next 7-10 days.

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WxJordan

WxJordan

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Rainfall in the upcoming period is looking to be way above average. After many areas in the southeast have had at least normal rainfall with most receiving double average rainfall, the last thing we needed was a cut off low, two strong ridges to the east and west, an amazing trough, and the possibility of a tropical system.

Some areas in the southeast are going to see amazing rainfall totals stretching from this Thursday past Independence Day into Saturday July 6. This upcoming trough looks more like what you expect to happen in the winter or spring months, not in middle summer.

If the models verify, I could see some areas of the Carolinas and Georgia receiving the total average rainfall for July in the first three to four days of the month.

We will anxiously wait and see what happens over the weekend into next week.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

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Rainfall in the upcoming period is looking to be way above average. After many areas in the southeast have had at least normal rainfall with most receiving double average rainfall, the last thing we needed was a cut off low, two strong ridges to the east and west, an amazing trough, and the possibility of a tropical system.

Some areas in the southeast are going to see amazing rainfall totals stretching from this Thursday past Independence Day into Saturday July 6. This upcoming trough looks more like what you expect to happen in the winter or spring months, not in middle summer.

If the models verify, I could see some areas of the Carolinas and Georgia receiving the total average rainfall for July in the first three to four days of the month.

We will anxiously wait and see what happens over the weekend into next week.

I like this post. Interesting days ahead. My backyard is at 14.86 inches of rain this June which is double our average.

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Met1985

Met1985

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I like this post. Interesting days ahead. My backyard is at 14.86 inches of rain this June which is double our average.

Ya here in the mountains we are about 17 inches above average for the year which is Crazy! Anymore rain and we will have flooding problems without a tropical disturbance. These pop up storms have been getting us pretty hard the last few days.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Was talking about it a little at the end of the current long range discussion thread...all signs continue to show a very unsettled Southeast US and I would target those in the Apps and east of the Apps.

 

Just looking at the 500mb features, I could easily see a cutoff develop somewhere over the Mid-South or Upper Gulf Coast Region. And we won't even throw in any possibility of a tropical feature that could develop over the next 7-10 days.

Yep this upcoming pattern is very anomalous for this time of the year. Jeff had chimed in with some good discussion in the other thread earlier today and Robert has a good lengthy write up on facebook and his website. This pattern know doubt with be very interesting coming up. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s for July are unheard of in the most recent years.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

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Yep this upcoming pattern is very anomalous for this time of the year. Jeff had chimed in with some good discussion in the other thread earlier today and Robert has a good lengthy write up on facebook and his website. This pattern know doubt with be very interesting coming up. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s for July are unheard of in the most recent years.

I'm interested in this cutoff low possibility some of you guys are mentioning. Any models showing this yet?
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jburns

jburns

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Rainfall in the upcoming period is looking to be way above average. After many areas in the southeast have had at least normal rainfall with most receiving double average rainfall, the last thing we needed was a cut off low, two strong ridges to the east and west, an amazing trough, and the possibility of a tropical system.

Some areas in the southeast are going to see amazing rainfall totals stretching from this Thursday past Independence Day into Saturday July 6. This upcoming trough looks more like what you expect to happen in the winter or spring months, not in middle summer.

If the models verify, I could see some areas of the Carolinas and Georgia receiving the total average rainfall for July in the first three to four days of the month.

We will anxiously wait and see what happens over the weekend into next week.

 

No doubt about it. I'm going to be at North Myrtle Beach 7/1-7/7.

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WxJordan

WxJordan

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No doubt about it. I'm going to be at North Myrtle Beach 7/1-7/7.

I will be just to your north at Oak Island from 6/29 to 7/6. It is definitely looking like a wet period for the first of the month.

 

The models last night continued to show a cut off low providing copious amounts of moisture into the southeast United States. The 0z GFS last night showed winds becoming orthogonal at the 850 mb level to the mountains of NC. That would provide extremely heavy rainfall with PWATs near 2 inches for the period in the mountains and foothills of North Carolina. That could be one maximum of rainfall and will be interesting to watch.

Second, another maximum could be the coastal locations of North/South Carolina as the front will stall out and wash out near that area. This could provide some areas with multiple inches of rain over the period.

Regardless, MOST areas will see over 2 inches of rain from this event. Many areas will receive their average rainfall for July in the first few days.

We can start looking at specific areas by Thursday and Friday as we continue to understand the synoptics and this very rare cut off low and deep trough for July in the southeast.

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WxJordan

WxJordan

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GFS is showing some amazing rainfall totals for next week. Many areas in the southeast receive around 2 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts popping up. I believe that the rainfall amounts have the potential to be greater than this with the high PWATs with the copious moisture surging northward. Here are the graphics I posted on my website this morning:

Slide8.GIF

Slide7.GIF

Many areas in the southeast will continue to see these showers and storms, and with this feature next week, widespread showers and storms could produce flooding. Now we wait on upcoming model runs to see how strong the low is, where is the best moisture plumes located, where does the surface front settle, etc.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
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As I just posted, this morning's Euro is the first to come on board with the idea of a cutoff low developing. I've said all along that the model was being a bit extreme with the height's out west but we're now talking within 6 days and the GFS is very similar, it hasn't yet catched on to the idea of a cutoff but it could very easily in the next day or two.

 

I know Robert had a big update on his site this morning and I'm starting to believe we could have something significant occurring for parts of the Southeast next week. Being 4th of July week this will be horrible timing for any outdoor activities.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

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As I just posted, this morning's Euro is the first to come on board with the idea of a cutoff low developing. I've said all along that the model was being a bit extreme with the height's out west but we're now talking within 6 days and the GFS is very similar, it hasn't yet catched on to the idea of a cutoff but it could very easily in the next day or two.

I know Robert had a big update on his site this morning and I'm starting to believe we could have something significant occurring for parts of the Southeast next week. Being 4th of July week this will be horrible timing for any outdoor activities.

The Euro also just got upgraded yesterday.
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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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I'm very gung-ho on a major wet period coming up, and it starts in the Southeast Coast and works north , then west, with time, starting late Sunday.  By Monday and onward, there will be two big high pressure ridges, one in the northern Rockies (linking with the Alaskan ridge) and the other developing just north of Bermuda.  In tandem, this is quite a bit stronger than climo, reaching 595+ dm on both atleast on GFS (Euro has fluctuated a lot each run) and this will leave no choice but for an East Coast Trough.  Exactly where the trough axis lines up means everything, but all models do work it westward (retrograde) with time, thanks to how the Rockies ridge begins to tip on it's northern edge by the middle of next week. This tipping ridge will also act to help pull more southern Canada vorts due south, and further back an already really backed flow in the Gulf States...so, hence the repeating rounds of rainfall.  It's been a long time since we've seen this long lived of a repeating wet pattern in Summer.  The last time I can recall is late June 2006, and also we had a wet June 2005, when I literally couldn't cut grass any afternoon because the low cumulus base clouds would open wide by around noon, and dropped 10" of rain that month here.  This time, the pattern synoptically is actually even more pronounced and more vast, opening up the chances that widespread 5" plus rains are coming to a HUGE region by the July 4th holiday..but what makes this situation pretty serious is the fact that almost all interior Southeast cities are now 5" to 18" above normal as of today, and any big rains next week will go straight into flood-making.  Recall the big southern Apps rains earlier this Spring?  GFS is strongly showing that Atlantic and Gulf linkage again, and repeats it for northern Georgia , western NC and western VA to eastern West Virginia especially, but they won't be the only ones to get too much rain.  This time, I think its more broad-based looking, and will affect more folks, again though, starting from Florida and GA coasts to eastern Carolinas first, then working west as the week wears on.  I have zero doubt (almost ) that Appalachian rivers will once again flood by the holiday, and probably before then....and since so many vacationers are heading to mountains and beaches, this event will make headlines and affect many millions of people. Some areas will get 10" of rain next week, and many will get 4".   Atleast we're not roasting and baking like most of the last 2 Summers.

Here's a look at what happened in late June 2006.....very similar at 5H..but this time the Bermuda ridge may push closer to the Northeast Coast with time, and since backing flows are super-wet on the west side of ridges like that, I'd place the axis of heaviest rains probably just a little southwest of that time period.

post-38-0-88946600-1372277521_thumb.gif

Latest 12z run of European really retrogrades. and if thats the case, the Gulf is still very wide open but would mean more hit and miss showers by the day 10 period for the East coast, but would still hit the Apps hard with daily rains.  GFS is a little more consistent, all in all they are close though.  With such a wide open gulf, high PW's and saturated airmass, it won't take much heating to bring down showers, the biggest question is if any tropical system like GGEM can get involved. I'm doubting it right now, atleast until after the fourth of July.  Stay safe and enjoy the active weather...this pattern is so much more interesting than the previous 2 Summers.

post-38-0-93329400-1372278088_thumb.gif

GFS

post-38-0-48951600-1372278142_thumb.gif

post-38-0-01915400-1372278165_thumb.gif

 

 

 

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jburns

jburns

Posted
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Haha!  There are other reasons to teach than just for the great pay we all get!  He might just enjoy imparting wisdom to the masses so that they can better appreciate the wonders of weather.

 

Yeah, well.  I'm jaded.  Too many days feeling like Aaron Hernandez's high school coach feels today.

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calculus1

calculus1

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Yeah, well.  I'm jaded.  Too many days feeling like Aaron Hernandez's high school coach feels today.

 

Ouch!  Too soon!

 

I know you must be somewhat jaded, but despite that I've grown to like you and your quick wit, sir.  I too have given in to cynicism from time to time in this our chosen field of work.  I try to think of the bright spots in the students that make it, rather than dwell too much on the failures.  But, I'll admit it is difficult, at times.  I don't think I'll ever forget your fairly recent story of the young female student with her feet up on the desk who didn't know what kind of substitute teacher she was getting.  (I think it's all in the way you tell the story.)  There was humor in that story, but I think you probably also made a brief, but hopefully lasting, impact in her life.

 

Now, before we get booted to the banter thread...I think July is going to be...wet.  Anyone else?

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