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June 21-27 Severe Weather

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

If you want to hump the HRRR, keep in mind it had nothing coming remotely close to LAF until its 19z run caught a clue. But I digress...models seem to struggle with convective patterns. Buyer beware. Probably best to watch radars and mesoscale features...and then hope for the best.

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chase_stormz

chase_stormz

Posted
Posted

lol

 

What the RAP shows isn't the MN MCS. It's development in E. IA/S. WI/N. IL as the LLJ increases this evening.

 

Several models show this occuring.

Yea I noticed that too and they also have this afternoon's OFB to play with. Last time I could see it on radar it was laying from Keokuk, IA to Rushville, IL to Bloomington, IL area. Do you know where it's at now?

 

0z Mesoanalysis update has VERY favorable parameters for severe storms across central IL in the next few hours along the remnant outflow boundary if storms are able to fire as some hi res models are showing from the LLJ

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Gilbertfly

Gilbertfly

Posted
Posted

lol

What the RAP shows isn't the MN MCS. It's development in E. IA/S. WI/N. IL as the LLJ increases this evening.

Several models show this occuring.

LOT discussed this as well....tough to tell skies here right now....i thought it was clearing a bit....then clouding up....but then I pretty clearly sas a high jet with its trail...def feeling muggier then an hour or so ago

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Yea I noticed that too and they also have this afternoon's OFB to play with. Last time I could see it on radar it was laying from Keokuk, IA to Rushville, IL to Bloomington, IL area. Do you know where it's at now?

Near an ALO-IOW-SPI line.

 

I don't totally buy into the scenario, but it's possible and has support.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

really starting to follow it's cold pool as a warm wing kicks out

 

Edit:  gust front trying to outrun on it's SW flank

 

Yeah you can see the gust front clearly. This storm is b-lining it towards Stevens Point.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Might make a run at southeast South Dakota tomorrow.  Gonna have to leave early to be sure.  Looks like a decent chance for some nice sups there before the complexes begin to organize and grow upscale. 

 

Around here it looks like the severe threat is pretty low through the weekend.  Best upper support remains west and north of the area, so anything that moves in will have only marginal severe risks, much like today.  Definitely not an impressive ring of fire type severe setup for this area yet.  Maybe things will get more interesting later in the month and into July.

 

EDIT:  Woops, wrong thread.  Hopefully a mod can move this to the current severe thread. 

Anyway, also looks pretty decent in southwest Minnesota tomorrow.  May just head there since it's closer. 

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hm8

hm8

Posted
Posted

Pretty amazing afd from Dtx...even if the ultimate forecast is kinda a let down

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SUPPRESSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THERMAL FIELDS HAS OCCURRED IN

THE SUBSIDENCE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT IS NOW WELL

NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON. THIS HAS ALL OCCURRED UNDERNEATH AND

WORKING AGAINST AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH

AMERICA. IT IS FAIRLY NOISY...BUT THE MEAN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THETA

E GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA NEAR THE TRI

CITIES/SAGINAW BAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE THUMB.

UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS FOCUSED ALONG THE

EDGE OF A STOUT MIDLEVEL CAPPING INVERSION (SEE KDVN 00Z SOUNDING).

FORCING THAT INITIATED THE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SOME CYCLONIC

VORTICITY ADVECTION THAT OCCURRED AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE VORTICITY

MAX. THIS VORT MAX FRACTURED OFF OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT

DIVED THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS YESTERDAY...REVERSED COURSE...AND

LIFTED BACK NORTHWARD DUE TO ANTICYCLONIC BACKGROUND FLOW.

850-300MB MEAN FLOW IS FORECASTED TO BE LIGHT WESTERLY AT APPRX 20

KNOTS...WHILE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THIS

MORNING. IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION...TOTALLY DISCOUNTED THE

LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY ACCURATE. IT IS THERE...BUT

ONE ACTUALLY HAS TO LOOK BELOW THE 850MB LEVEL...MORE INTO THE

950-925MB LAYER. THE QUESTION IS THEN WHAT SORT OF IMPACT DOES THIS

HAVE ON ACTIVITY THAT IS LIKELY FORCED WELL ABOVE 800MB. THE BOTTOM

LINE HERE IS THAT BEST FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL

REMAIN WELL WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS DOES NOT MEAN

THE AREA IS TOTALLY IN THE CLEAR DURING THE NEAR TO EARLY SHORT TERM

PERIOD. SUPPRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA E FIELDS SUPPORTS THE

VERY MODEST MIDLEVEL CONFLUENCE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER

MICHIGAN. THE MASS CONVERGENCE SIGNAL IS NOT AS GOOD AS IT WAS

MODELED IN RUNS INITIALIZED 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...IR IMAGERY IS

SHOWING THAT MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA

BETWEEN 9-11Z. THE INTRODUCTION OF THIS SATURATION IN COMBINATION

WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER TO

POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR

WILL LIMIT ANY VIGOR. MASSAGED POPS DOWN TO THE 50 RANGE FOR THE

NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING.

VARIOUS HI RESOLUTION OUTPUT ALONG WITH THETA E PLAN VIEW PROGS

SUGGEST THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL THEN MIGRATE TO

THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY

UPSTREAM FLOW VEERING THIS MORNING AND SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN

CWA. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CAP WILL EXIST BECAUSE OF

MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE GRADIENTS. REMAINED VERY CONSERVATIVE

WITH THE FORECAST HERE...JUST INCREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

CONDITIONALLY SPEAKING...BEHAVIOR OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE

LIKE GIVEN VERY LOW 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND WILL FOCUS DOWN TOWARD THE

OH/MI BORDER. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT OF AN EYEBROW RAISER WITH

MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS TRUMP CARD...A CONDITIONAL

ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH STORM CORE COLLAPSES

(WINDGUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 60MPH). FREEZING LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH FOR

MUCH HAIL.

HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AREAWIDE. THIS

WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S.

ANOTHER BOUT OF LARGE SCALE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL SEND A

SECONDARY MIDLEVEL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD. THIS WILL

REESTABLISH CAPPING AND PUSH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH OF THE

CWA. BALMY LOWS TONIGHT...READINGS STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR

70.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THE

FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. DESPITE DAYTIME MLCAPE VALUES REACHING

1000 TO 1500 J/KG THE CAPE ITSELF IS VERY THIN AND NARROW...MEANING

UPDRAFTS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO UP IN THE COLUMN TO

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE ENERGY. BEFORE THE CAPE CAN BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE

OF A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME...SOMETHING

THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TRIVIAL GIVEN THE LAYER OF WARM AIR

BETWEEN 600 AND 800 MB. ON SITE (KDTX) AND UPSTREAM (KDVN) SOUNDINGS

VERIFY THIS STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE

SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH

OF THE CWA DURING THE VERY WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HIGH

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO OR VERY CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX

VALUES INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN EXCEPTION

TO THIS DRY FORECAST COULD BE ALONG THE EASTERN THUMB SOUTH TO THE

LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE COULD HELP OVERCOME THE

CAP. WITH SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 MPH THERE IS A

CHANCE A LAKE BREEZE COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH THE

ADDED BOOST FROM THE LAKE BREEZE...WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 TO 30

PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLE

ON THIS CAP AS THEY CONVECT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE

NAM KEEPS QPF LIMITED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKESHORE AREAS.

HODOGRAPHS SHOW A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD...THEREFOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS

THAT CAN BE GENERATED ON SUNDAY WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED.

BY MONDAY MLCAPE VALUES SOAR TO A MORE RESPECTABLE 2000 J/KG DURING

THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER THE CAP REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH A

SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF WARM AIR BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. CLOSE

INSPECTION OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP IS NOT UNIFORM OVER

THE CWA WITH THE CAP SLIGHTLY WEAKER HEADING FARTHER

NORTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR. THERE IS

ALSO A WEAK BUT NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT

LAKES DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND A

WEAKER CAP WILL KEEP CHANCY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND LEAVE AREAS TO

THE SOUTH FAIRLY DRY WITH AT MOST A 20 POP. ALTHOUGH THE HODOGRAPHS

WILL BE IMPROVED OVER SUNDAY...THEY REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LOW

THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP

FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN GET TO OR VERY CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES. A

HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOW TO MID

90S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SCALE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING

SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A

WARM HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH INSTABILITY BUILDING DURING

THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT DESPITE WHAT THE QPF FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NWP

MODELS GENERATE. AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO GO WITH ANYTHING

HIGHER THAN CHANCY POPS GIVEN THE LACK OF A LARGE SCALE FEATURE TO

OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL

ONCE AGAIN BE SOLIDLY IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS

POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S. RELIEF

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL NOT COME EASY AS LOW TEMPERATURES

HOVER AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THE PATTERN CHANGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH

THE GREAT LAKES REGION...USHERING IN COOL CANADIAN AIR BY FRIDAY.

THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS

FEATURE...HOWEVER THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THIS LARGE SCALE CHANGE IN

THE PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS

BREAKING THE CAPPING INVERSION GETS EASIER WITH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH

REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY

AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL LIMIT HIGH

TEMPERATURES TO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 4 Beta

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oldlogin

oldlogin

Posted
Posted

I think in the short term for our subforum the training flooding rains will be of greatest concern the next few days.  Maybe svr enhancement for mid week and certainly west of the Mississippi River and in WI in SPC outlined areas in the interim.

That complex in Eastern Ill ( Ford Co)  is dropping a lot of rain and not moving much----

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Indystorm

Indystorm

Posted
Posted

That complex in Eastern Ill ( Ford Co)  is dropping a lot of rain and not moving much----

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1134 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GIBSON CITY             40.47N 88.38W06/22/2013                   FORD               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER            8-12 INCHES OF WATER ON MOST ROADS IN TOWN.
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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Might make a run at southeast South Dakota tomorrow.  Gonna have to leave early to be sure.  Looks like a decent chance for some nice sups there before the complexes begin to organize and grow upscale. 

 

Around here it looks like the severe threat is pretty low through the weekend.  Best upper support remains west and north of the area, so anything that moves in will have only marginal severe risks, much like today.  Definitely not an impressive ring of fire type severe setup for this area yet.  Maybe things will get more interesting later in the month and into July.

 

EDIT:  Woops, wrong thread.  Hopefully a mod can move this to the current severe thread. 

Anyway, also looks pretty decent in southwest Minnesota tomorrow.  May just head there since it's closer. 

 

Couldn't get my lazy ass out of bed in time.  Probably gonna regret that later this evening when all the pics/vid start rolling in.

 

There's lots of instability building along and south of that outflow boundary south and southwest of the QC.  Will be interesting to see if anything fires from that later today.  Mid-levels are pretty weak down this way though by later today, so organization looks iffy. 

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