Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Curious to see what this does...on the road to NC for vacation so I'm sure something decent will happen with this. Looking at mesoanalysis...overall shear drops off south of the IL/WI border and the *best* moisture is west of I-39 but with sunshine ahead of this thing and already a good reservoir of MUCAPE, it should continue for awhile. Steering winds become really weak so going to dump a lot of water with the slow movement. Hopefully at least a good shelf. I love the morning MCS setups that continue enough with late morning/afternoon sunshine and hit that instability. This one will have a harder time in IL with only 20kts of shear safe travels! decent shelf would be nice...seems plausible for now EDIT: Madison on south trying to get it's act together....but doesn't have the punch thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 So that means all the areas surrounding that lake watch aren't expected to see severe, yet that spot will? Seems legit. I was just referring to why Chicago is not in the watch, the micro watch beats me, but almost certainly a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 the evolution of this line has me feeling much better about our chances later this evening into the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 I was just referring to why Chicago is not in the watch, the micro watch beats me, but almost certainly a mistake. We weren't talking about the whole watch, just the little micro one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 the evolution of this line has me feeling much better about our chances later this evening into the overnight. yeah....really hitting a wall movement wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 yeah....really hitting a wall movement wise Still seeing a nice little theta-e/cape increase over the area and hanging onto filtered sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 micro harbor watch? Ya, they mentioned Lake Michigan in the watch but didn't extend the graphic east to Chi town. But marine says Calumet Harbor to Gary is included. Weird. Meanwhile, baseball size hail now forecast for svr warning in South Dakota where the next MCS to affect us tonight and tomorrow am is already getting its act together. Wagons south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 line in southern WI has improved somewhat after looking like it was close to death, wonder if the increase in instability out ahead has helped. wonder if LOT is working on a mesoscale update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Cedar Rapids not getting missed this time. It's quite dark at the moment with gust wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 The line is really coming on strong in southern WI and around Freeport, IL. Still plenty of sun here west of Chicago.... Adding to the instability it would appear. I looked at this line moving out of MN around 5am and thought there was no shot of it making it to LOT. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 well, it managed to pop at least 1 warning in the LOT cwa. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA THROUGH NRN IL AND EXTREME SERN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334... VALID 211512Z - 211715Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO BY 1630-17Z...AND DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES IN NERN IL MIGHT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT WW. DISCUSSION...LINEAR MCS FROM SERN WI THROUGH NWRN IL INTO ECNTRL IA CONTINUES SEWD AT AROUND 20 KT. THE LINE IS MOVING SOUTH OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...AND THIS AREA RESIDES EAST OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE LOW 80S SUPPORTING 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Getting darker up this way fast. Line doesn't look like it's weakening yet! Would be nice to see a soaker today, especially if it is going to be drier later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Wind only reached 40+ mph here followed by good rain. There is very little lightning/thunder, but overall a solid June storm, which I'll take anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Driving north on 39 in rockford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Sweet shelf cloud Sch. Stormer. Hopefully it's that picturesque when it gets here. These storms contain quite a bit of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Nice shelf cloud incoming. Full of striations. Thunder starting. Storm is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 looks super elevated monster cell in SD looks to have some life...could have a serious long life and end up in our area tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 000FXUS63 KILX 211539 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1039 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1039 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013 SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR NORTH MAIN ISSUE. THIS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BY A 40-45 KT SW 925 MB LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT ON AREA VWP/S AND A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SHIFTING THROUGH NRN WI. LATEST RAP FORECASTS INDICATE THE LLJ WEAKENING TO AROUND 20 KTS AND BACKING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY...AND CONVECTIVE MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS COMPLEX BEST /3-KM HRRR/ SHOWS LINE WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS SE INTO AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW COLD POOL HAS SURGED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LINE WITH A WEAKENING TREND ALREADY NOTED DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE SVR/NEAR SVR WIND GUSTS CONTINUE IN PARTS OF NE IA AN NORTH CENTRAL IL. ALSO BEST SHEAR REMAINS TO OUR NORTH TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE AND WITH ALL THESE FACTORS IN MIND FEEL ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE UPPED POPS TO MID-HIGH CHANCE NORTH OF A GALESBURG TO EL PASO LINE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THERE AS ACTIVITY TENDS TO FADE BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE TRENDS THOUGH AS 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPES WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL IL. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL MID/LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING HRRR AND 4KM NSSL WRF POINT TO A FAVORED AREA ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS IN SE IA/NE MO/WEST CENTRAL IL AFTER 21Z. THUS HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR WEST LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...BULK OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AND HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. 10 AM TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID 80S AND WHILE INCOMING CIRRUS SHIELD MAY INHIBIT TEMP RISE SOMEWHAT...STILL THINK WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S LIKELY. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 25 && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 An interesting shot just as it was starting to rain. Looked like the sky was splitting open! Another shot of the striations. Pouring rain and lightning now. Winds under 35mph though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1152 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150 AM CDT UPDATE CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A LINE FROM NE OF MILWAUKEE BACK TO NEAR PRINCETON AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE CIN HAS ERODED AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LINE BUT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION ACROSS SOUTHERN DEKALB...LEE AND FAR NW LA SALLE COUNTIES. THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STEEPEST LAPSE RATES IS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHICH SUPPORTS LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF RENEWED AND FAIRLY STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BACK TOWARDS PRINCETON. OVERALL THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88 BACK TO INTERSTATE 80 WHERE BEST PARAMETERS LINE UP. SOUTHERN EXTENT MAY EXPAND FURTHER SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT PONTIAC AND POINTS SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE OUTFLOW SLIPS SOUTHWARD. TO THE NORTH...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE LIMITED WITH THAT PORTION OF THE LINE LOOKING OUTFLOW DOMINANT AT THE MOMENT. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SOME REGENERATION OF CELLS OVER AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL BE FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN LEE AND MAY EXPAND INTO LA SALLE COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE URBAN AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PONDING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. OVERALL HAVE SEEN RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR. MDB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Around here it's mainly heavy to moderate rain and a decent amount of thunder. Line lost some punch since it was out in the Rock River Valley. Top wind gust might have made 35 mph. Edit: Storm/outflow going to make it into NW IN? Down to LAF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 getting some pretty high quality flash action to the northwest. SD storm continues to beast mode...should be a fun long track complex to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 stuff firing along and ahead of the gust front now....gust front stabilized stuff in my immediate area....just showers and a couple rumbles here EDIT: rumbles starting to ramp up now.....man this is moving slow 2.) actually moving so slow here that it is starting to destabilize here again...getting warm and muggy as darker clouds still loom to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Raining pretty good back here in the stratiform. About 0.40" so far. Thinking the SD storms will take a similar path later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 micro harbor watch? per the latest radar scan....LOT nailed it .... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Speaking of shelf cloud, I took this picture at 9:27 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 nugget... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 211834Z - 211930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH ECNTRL SD INTO SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES EWD THROUGH ECNTRL AND NERN SD. LONG LIVED STORM CURRENTLY OVER BUFFALO COUNTY REMAINS SEVERE WITH BOWING STRUCTURES...WHILE OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG WARM ADVECTION WING EAST OF THIS FEATURE. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ENEWD FOR A WHILE AS THEY RIDE ALONG NRN FRINGE OF WARMER 700 MB TEMPERATURES BEFORE TURNING MORE EWD AND ESEWD. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS REGION RESIDES ON NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ WITH HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL MESO-CYCLONES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ORGANIZED STORMS WITH BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE EWD MOVING MCV. out of the subforum....but prolly leading into portions of the subforum as the evening progresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 As a result of the t-storms moving through N IL, N IN now. MKX SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI112 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-211915-COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN-GREENLAKE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-KENOSHA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-SAUK-SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-112 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013...STRONG WAKE LOW WINDS TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTWISCONSIN...GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE LIKELYTHROUGH ABOUT 3 PM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.THESE WINDS ARE RELATED TO THE LINE OF STORMS THAT PASSED THROUGHTHE AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS AN AREA OFLOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED. THIS SETS UP A PRESSURE GRADIENT THATINCREASES WIND SPEEDS...BUT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DIRECTIONBEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS.THIS SET UP IS REFERRED TO AS WAKE LOW WINDS. IN SOME CASES WINDGUSTS CAN REACH 60 TO 65 MPH. HOWEVER...WAKE LOW WIND SPEEDS THISAFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 50 MPH.GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSEOBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. A BROKEN SMALL BRANCH CAN SNAP A POWER LINEAND RESULT IN THE LOSS OF ELECTRICITY. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTSOUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.$$KAPELA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 nugget... out of the subforum....but prolly leading into portions of the subforum as the evening progresses probably a similar dying complex for our area tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 Had some 30-40mph gusts with that line here at work earlier. Crappy non picture worthy shelf cloud too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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