Thunder Road Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 since no one else made it yet go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THELARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HASFOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THELARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMEDVERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN.THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLEBIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATASUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ANDSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECASTSHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEMBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THENACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVELTROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBALMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGHTHEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THECENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THEFLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED.AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARDALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SOMEBAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREAWILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAININGA TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO APOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER.THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORMWARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ATROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THEPRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALLACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONGPORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATETONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 05/2200Z 25.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH24H 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND48H 07/1800Z 34.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND72H 08/1800Z 43.0N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP96H 09/1800Z 45.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 10/1800Z 47.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$FORECASTER BROWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 nhc track more towards the eastern edge of the model guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 There is a KML file for Google Earth that shows the Hurricane Hunters....anybody have that by chance? Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Recon now heading back home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 There is a KML file for Google Earth that shows the Hurricane Hunters....anybody have that by chance? Thanks in advance! Tropical Atlantic has the KML, although Tropical Tidbits has some good cross sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 625 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013...TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO....NEW INFORMATION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED..AREAS AFFECTED...THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION ANDRECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECTLOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS..WATCHES/WARNINGS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...INLAND PENDER...COASTAL PENDER...INLAND NEW HANOVER...COASTAL NEWHANOVER...INLAND BRUNSWICK...COASTAL BRUNSWICK...INLAND HORRY...COASTAL HORRY...INLAND GEORGETOWN AND COASTAL GEORGETOWN.FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FORPORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIEDAREAS.ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESSPLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FORTHEIR AREA.IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTANDTHE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONEEVENTS..STORM INFORMATION...AT 6 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 810MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NC...OR ABOUT 740 MILES SOUTHWEST OFMYRTLE BEACH SC. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH.STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Already starting to see small waterspout spin-ups on radar out in the main convective band about 50 miles off shore of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Latest rap shows further organization over the next 12-18 hrs with some convection wrapping around to the west side of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 From a facebook friend... Maybe it should be named AND or REA since it's half of a storm. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Latest rap shows further organization over the next 12-18 hrs with some convection wrapping around to the west side of the circulation.Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Really? Not anything significant but yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Not anything significant but yes NAM/RAP/HRRR are mainly for sh*ts and giggles when its comes to tropical systems. The "big three" and HFIP models are the way to go. Pretty...chilly in the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 NAM/RAP/HRRR are mainly for sh*ts and giggles when its comes to tropical systems. Ah, ok good to know thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 SW of KTBW Decent rotation signature (over water obviously) Should be some decent weak tornado/water spout reports over the next 24-72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Where? What radar? Edit to add: never mind, I see. Mods, feel free to delete. either TBW (Tampa) or EYW/BYX (Key West). the current warnings are off-shore of EYW and PGD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 This is destined to be like every other early June slopgyre. It isn't going to be a windstorm unless you get in one of the EF0s near Tampa. Rain flooding and EF0s are the only threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Tropical Atlantic has the KML, although Tropical Tidbits has some good cross sections Great, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 SW of KTBW Decent rotation signature (over water obviously) Should be some decent weak tornado/water spout reports over the next 24-72 hours This one should be moving onshore in about an hour. Sent from my HTCEVOV4G using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Wicked (super?) cells over the Keys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Low level center is completely detached from convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF...EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE... MARATHON... * UNTIL 1145 PM EDT * AT 1058 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MARATHON...BOOT KEY AND EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE KNIGHT KEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Pretty sure I've never seen that wording before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF...EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE... MARATHON... * UNTIL 1145 PM EDT * AT 1058 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MARATHON...BOOT KEY AND EAST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE KNIGHT KEY That feeder band means business, looks like besides the 2 main circulations in the keys the ones to the NW are developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 here's the 4-panel shot off of the Key West Radar at 0320z, focused on the Marathon area. 3-4 tornadic/waterspout cells on it. including a strong cell with maybe small hail headed towards marathon.top left 0.5 reflectivity, top right SRV, KDP 0.5 bottom left, cc 0.5 bottom right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Wow, I am scared of this wind. This is a minor breeze in Wyoming. MINOR DAMAGEMAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE LOOSE ITEMSINDOORS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Looks like it is rolling right over Marathon as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Yeah, the center looks completely disjointed from the convection. The graveyard shift recon will be quite painful to watch... Exactly why I'm not sticking around for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Did this storm really need to be named? It closed off for a few hours after ingesting a lot of dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Did this storm really need to be named? It closed off for a few hours after ingesting a lot of dry air. It met the criteria for being named. It's a typical June storm, so I don't know why everyone's standards are so high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.