forkyfork Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Did CPK break the record? cpk is the code for chesapeake, va. this has been talked about on these forums for at least 10 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 The good news is that the 12z NAM sends a pretty potent batch of rain over Long Island and New England late Saturday and early Sunday just clipping the city. Bad news is that it looks pretty potent and someone is going to get a lot more rain. Why is it bad news? Long island is not underwater, and rarely floods. The sandy soil drains very quickly, unlike areas of NJ and upstate with clay and bedrock, which get oversaturated. Over the past 11 days i have seen 0.06 of an inch, and only .50 inch on the past 2 weeks. Much of Long Island has similar numbers. Stop being so dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Why is it bad news? Long island is not underwater, and rarely floods. The sandy soil drains very quickly, unlike areas of NJ and upstate with clay and bedrock, which get oversaturated. Over the past 11 days i have seen 0.06 of an inch, and only .50 inch on the past 2 weeks. Much of Long Island has similar numbers. Stop being so dramatic. I said the good news is that the NAM sends it over Long Island and not western areas that are more water logged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 The 12z GFS is a more widespread 0.25+ for everone today. More closer to the NJ shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 12z rgem has basically nothing. Maybe a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 EMP, Zombies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Good severe params in place today. All we need is for the trigger to arrive from PA Good SBCAPE already in place Decent shear Mid-level lapse rates are a hair better than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Here we go, storm initiation out in central PA just NW of State College Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 The 12z GFS has 700-500mb lapse rates between 6.0-6.5 C/km this afternoon and evening. We should be able to advect at least some modest lapse rates into region, with the mid-level flow increasing from SW to NE today. Shear will be stronger and deeper late this afternoon as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 the 10.10" of rainfall NYC has in June is the first 10" rainfall month since August 2011...seven of the last eleven years had a month with at least 10" of rainfall... amount month year... 10.10" June 201318.95" August 201110.69" March 2010 10.06" June 200913.05" April 200716.73" October 200511.51" September 200410.27" June 200312.36" August 199010.24" May 198914.01" April 198310.54" March 198310.41" March 198010.52" January 197912.26" November 197711.77" July 197512.41" November 197210.86" August 195510.30" September 194411.96" September 193410.09" September 193312.97" October 191313.31" October 190311.89" July 188916.85" September 1882 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austinwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 June 2009 as well, uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 That may be the beginnings of an MCS trying to form up in NW PA. A line of storms has recently gone severe with a fairly large rain shield building in behind it. We'll have to see if this is the case. The 4k NAM has been hinting at this possibility. The 12z SPC WRF brings a fairly potent looking line into the area later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH...PA...MD...SERN LOWER MI...DC...WV...NRN VA...EXTREME SRN PORTIONS WRN NY. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 281702Z - 281900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...WW IS REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS SRN PA...MD...NRN VA AND WV...AND ANOTHER WW IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS BROADER DISCUSSION AREA AS TRENDS INDICATE. DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF TSTMS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM SERN LOWER MI EWD ACROSS UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. INITIALLY WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE DENSE...AND CONVECTION MORE INTENSE...WHILE MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN CONCERN IS DAMAGING WIND...WITH OCNL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN DECREASINGLY CAPPED AIR MASS...ON BOTH SIDES OF ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SWWD FROM SFC LOW OVER UPPER HUDSON RIVER REGION. SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY 60S F...BUT INCREASING TO NEAR 70 AROUND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DE VALLEY REGIONS...COMBINE WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING OF PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS TO YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS. KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE MOSTLY WLY AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...INDICATING PREDOMINANT QUASI-LINEAR EVOLUTION WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING GREATEST CONCERN. DEEP SHEAR INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PORTIONS WV AND NRN VA...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES PEAKING AROUND 50 KT OVER LATTER AREAS. MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/GROWTH APPEARS TO BE ON NRN FRINGES OF STRONGER SHEAR BELT...WHERE TSTMS HAVE COALESCED ACROSS PORTIONS SERN OH...NRN WV PANHANDLE AND SWRN PA. ANY SUCH EVOLUTION WOULD DRIVE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS EWD TO ESEWD ASTRIDE PA/MD BORDER REGION...EVENTUALLY WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT CHESAPEAKE BAY/DE RIVER REGIONS. ..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 06/28/2013 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE... ILN...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 38667940 38978194 40048400 42218382 42248288 42098312 41788341 41688333 41568306 41528274 41388259 41448235 41548205 41468170 41808129 41917972 42147871 41897680 41207579 40477525 39557611 38727708 38667940 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 387NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK210 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFDISTRICT OF COLUMBIADELAWARECENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLANDCENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEYSOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIANORTHEAST VIRGINIACOASTAL WATERS* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL900 PM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLETHE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUM TO 15 MILES NORTH OFTRENTON NEW JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEETHE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLYDO PRODUCE TORNADOES.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 385...WW 386...DISCUSSION...A FURTHER INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THISAFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WERE THE ENVIRONMENT HASBECOME UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. CURRENT VAD DATAINDICATE THAT 50 KT WLY WINDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION AT 6 KM AGLWHICH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ANDBOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFTTO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORMMOTION VECTOR 27030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 SSDD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Why do you continue to use simulated radars to predict convection? It's always wrong Its the pretty colors. 4km NAM for kicks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 12z euro has very little rain over the weekend. It has Monday as a complete washout with rain all day with 1"-1.25" totals in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 12z euro has very little rain over the weekend. It has Monday as a complete washout with rain all day with 1"-1.25" totals in the NYC area. Yeah most of the models today have trended towards a drier Saturday with rain on Sunday night into Monday. Obvious differences in timing. Starting to wonder if that mess out in PA is just going to congeal into one solid convective mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 12z euro has very little rain over the weekend. It has Monday as a complete washout with rain all day with 1"-1.25" totals in the NYC area. You can add Tuesday as a very rainy day as well on the Euro. All day rain and over 1" of rain on that day alone as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 You can add Tuesday as a very rainy day as well on the Euro. All day rain and over 1" of rain on that day alone as well. Starting to wonder if my 7:30 AM flight to St Maarten out of JFK is going to have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 You can add Tuesday as a very rainy day as well on the Euro. All day rain and over 1" of rain on that day alone as well. It looks like all the rain will fall before 8pm on the 4th so the fireworks would be able to go on if they aren't cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Dangerous heat ongoing in the west. Las Vegas and Death Valley, CA are going to be in the upper 110's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 That cell just about to go over State College looks like a good hail producer. Large area of 65+ dbz echos showing up. Either that or extremely heavy rain. Anyway it's warned for 1" hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Flood Watch dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 the HRRR has a good handle on things and sends the PA MCS into our area pretty intact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 the HRRR has a good handle on things and sends the PA MCS into our area pretty intact Those storms in PA mean business and that's a pretty expansive shield of convection. I'd be shocked if it missed us later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 the HRRR has a good handle on things and sends the PA MCS into our area pretty intact MCS params looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 The flow today is much more to the ENE today than it was yesterday. This favors more of a SW to NE storm movement so most of the activity out in PA should make it here provided it doesn't fall apart before then. That huge tongue of deep moisture advecting into New England is quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 what a beast of a WAR on the euro. this humidity isn't breaking for at least another week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Blow off from the storms is already headed our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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