SACRUS Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 what a beast of a WAR on the euro. this humidity isn't breaking for at least another week Its been a consistently stronger feature since tuedays' guidance and some prior runs. This is an above normal pattern the opening of July and suspect once the flow flattens a bit towards the 6th we see a blast of heat from the west before next WAR builds in by mid month again. Also think the stregnth of this ridge will be more conducive for scattered storms/showers (down pours) rather than widespread all day rain outs next week. Some scattered hefty daily totals but not complete washouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Those storms down in the DC area proved quite severe. Plenty reports of hail including at DCA which gusted to 53kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Northern part of the MCS in PA is really blowing up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 The 18z NAM is still insisting on under 0.25" areawide tonight. Tough to agree looking at the current radar. PWT's are 1.7 so any storms that do move over the area will be capable of dumping boat loads of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 The 18z NAM is still insisting on under 0.25" areawide tonight. Tough to agree looking at the current radar. PWT's are 1.7 so any storms that do move over the area will be capable of dumping boat loads of rain. Hi res sim seems out to lunch too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 This HRRR run seems to have found the Blow off and chokes the storms as they approach us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Hi res sim seems out to lunch too Indeed The rain shield is expanding behind the northern PA line. Shear doing its job. Hopefully that is the beginning of better organization into more of a classic MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 This HRRR run seems to have found the Blow off and chokes the storms as they approach us The cells southeast of Wiliamsport need to be watched and so do the ones east of State College. They might get in the way. We're probably close to nearing peak instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 The cells southeast of Wiliamsport need to be watched and so do the ones east of State College. They might get in the way. We're probably close to nearing peak instability Yea were about 30 min from clouding over here in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 New tornado warning in DE TORNADO WARNINGDEC003-MDC015-282100-/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0003.130628T2027Z-130628T2100Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ427 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE... NORTHEASTERN CECIL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...* UNTIL 500 PM EDT* AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM CONTAINING THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS NEAR CHERRY HILL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BRANTWOOD AROUND 430 PM EDT... GLASGOW AND NEWARK AROUND 435 PM EDT... BEAR AND MOUNT PLEASANT AROUND 445 PM EDT... SAINT GEORGES AND NEWPORT AROUND 450 PM EDT... DELAWARE CITY AND NEW CASTLE AROUND 455 PM EDT... PORT PENN AROUND 500 PM EDT...WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANSTHAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAYALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER INSIDE NOW. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. MOVETO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. PUT ASMANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS YOU CAN. AVOID WINDOWS.PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAYEVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEWJERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 You can add Tuesday as a very rainy day as well on the Euro. All day rain and over 1" of rain on that day alone as well. just as what was proven late this week and for the weekend, no complete washouts, just late day convective stuff. Too much gloom and doom hugging the models, its not April or May, things tend to work themselves out as we get closer to each day and can pinpoint exactly whats going to happen but saying its going to be an all day soaker on Tuesday is sort of odd at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Yea were about 30 min from clouding over here in NYC The jet streak is going right overhead blowing the tops off the storms passing to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Everything severe will once again stay to our south (and possibly even north) Once those anvils start to elongate and overspread the region, its ova! I'm shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 The jet streak is going right overhead blowing the tops off the storms passing to our south. GFS_3_2013062812_F09_WSPD_300_MB.png Shear really increasing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Everything severe will once again stay to our south (and possibly even north) Once those anvils start to elongate and overspread the region, its ova! I'm shocked. JFK_VIS_Sat-77667.gif Starting to become fairly obvious that the greatest risk today is going to be heavy rain. Just having a hard time grasping how little rain most of the models are outputting for tonight. Didn't hear the numbers for the Euro but the NAM is almost dry. Unless everything is going to just die once it crosses the DE river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 We seem destined to get the glob west of Wilkes Barre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Radar over EPA & WNJ looks alot like what the SPC WRF and HRRR, showed around this time. Maybe running an hour or two, too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 We have modest instability and shear incrasing, i dont see how this cloudcover will prevent strong storms in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 We have modest instability and shear incrasing, i dont see how this cloudcover will prevent strong storms in the area Nothing severe will fire underneath those decaying anvils. Best we get are some garden variety storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Lol looks like a 0 for 5 for severe storms this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 What a difference a year makes. All the real heat is out west and getting pushed north into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 What a difference a year makes. All the real heat is out west and getting pushed north into Canada. M7D9.jpg 500.gif For June in our area many places will be warmer this year (monthly departures) than last. INterestnig pattern one that looks to persist above normal/humid and wet with limited torching (95+). I do think we get into the heat on/arounf the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 For June in our area many places will be warmer this year (monthly departures) than last. INterestnig pattern one that looks to persist above normal/humid and wet with limited torching (95+). I do think we get into the heat on/arounf the 6th. If the latest Euro weeklies are correct, then there won't be any 95 degree or higher days in Central Park this July. It would break the streak of 3-100 degree reading Julys in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 If the latest Euro weeklies are correct, then there won't be any 95 degree or higher days in Central Park this July. It would break the streak of 3-100 degree reading Julys in a row. I havent seen the weeklies and am not sure how well they perform with heat, I did read in the New England forum that they were warm through the run Perhaps a different run. Either way, I doubt that the park hits 100 but do think July is warmer than normal and warmer than initially assumptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 what are the departures for June thus far for the area? I guess many will be surprised to see everyone at least +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Nothing severe will fire underneath those decaying anvils. Best we get are some garden variety storms. I'm thinking I'm going to see more from that batch coming up from the South than what's in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 what are the departures for June thus far for the area? I guess many will be surprised to see everyone at least +1 yep..but not surprised. we've had very mild overnight lows even with very few 90 degree days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Radar says it is raining. The dry ground outside says otherwise. Frustrating past few days. Just give me one good t-storm and I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 It appears the severe t-storm watch has been cancelled early for NJ and SE PA. Storms are moving slower and weaker. Instability diminishing with sunset now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 what are the departures for June thus far for the area? I guess many will be surprised to see everyone at least +1 Last check the NYC stations were all about +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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