The Drought Tracker

[Lava Rock]

Seriously, should I even bother watering the 1/2 acre of lawn seed we're trying to get to sprout? I've been out there every nite, but with all that lawn, no way to possibly soak the ground. I'm pretty much misting the seeds. We've got a 500' deep well, but I have concerns about running it too low. The hose is going about 4g/min and I'm watering for 1.5hr.

[Typhoon Tip]

This thread is a great idea. Let's keep all dryness and drought posts in this thread and out of the others.

 

 

 

Didn't realize it existed - D'oh!  

 

I posted a bunch of comments in the other banter thread;  if you want to clean it up and move them over --

[Typhoon Tip]

It depends on what is meant by "appreciable" rains ... 

 

If they mean a complete correction toward normalcy, perhaps not... But now we have the 00z operational Euro and the 12z GFS moving an inch of QPF through the region from Wed-Friday of next week.  This exaggerated and aggressive obsession for ringing on a drought would likely run into some hurdles if that happens.   Kevin may be the only person in this thread by next weekend. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Concur with NCEP's mid-range forecast disco

 

"...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT BOTH CUTOFF H5 CIRCULATIONS WILL PLAY A
MAJOR ROLL IN PROVIDING THE PREVAILING SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
ACROSS SRN APPALACHIA...THE PIEDMONT...UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LINE OF NEW ENGLAND AS THE
EAST COAST COASTAL LOW MIGRATES VERY SLOWLY UP THE COAST DAYS 3-7

EFFECTIVELY EXPOSING THE UNNECESSARINESS OF THE DROUGHT TRACKER

THREAD OVER AT THE RABBLE-ROUSING NEW ENGLAND WEATHER FORUM OF

AMERICAN WEATHER...."

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Concur with NCEP's mid-range forecast disco

"...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

IT REMAINS EVIDENT THAT BOTH CUTOFF H5 CIRCULATIONS WILL PLAY A

MAJOR ROLL IN PROVIDING THE PREVAILING SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS

ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE

ACROSS SRN APPALACHIA...THE PIEDMONT...UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST

AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LINE OF NEW ENGLAND AS THE

EAST COAST COASTAL LOW MIGRATES VERY SLOWLY UP THE COAST DAYS 3-7

EFFECTIVELY EXPOSING THE UNNECESSARINESS OF THE DROUGHT TRACKER

THREAD OVER AT THE RABBLE-ROUSING NEW ENGLAND WEATHER FORUM OF

AMERICAN WEATHER...."

Lol, like the ending.

[dendrite]

Not quite sure how one can love highs dews and grass, yet be a drought weenie...sort of a conflict of interests if you ask me.

[ORH_wxman]

Not quite sure how one can love highs dews and grass, yet be a drought weenie...sort of a conflict of interests if you ask me.

 

 

I think its similar to his fetish for when we get a torch in the winter over a deep snow pack, he overstates the melt by about 300-400%.

[joey2002]

I think its similar to his fetish for when we get a torch in the winter over a deep snow pack, he overstates the melt by about 300-400%.

 

Will, do you know if the high temp at BDL yesterday was 80 or 81 degrees?

[ORH_wxman]

Will, do you know if the high temp at BDL yesterday was 80 or 81 degrees?

 

 

The 6 hourly and 24 hourly have 80F as the high...even though there is a brief ob of 81F. I think the temp has to be 81F for more than 3 minutes to be official...or maybe its 2 minutes. Its possible it didn't meet those criteria and was just briefly 81F at the time of the ob...very rare, but it does happen.

 

Either that or its an error.

[grinch1989]

Seriously, should I even bother watering the 1/2 acre of lawn seed we're trying to get to sprout? I've been out there every nite, but with all that lawn, no way to possibly soak the ground. I'm pretty much misting the seeds. We've got a 500' deep well, but I have concerns about running it too low. The hose is going about 4g/min and I'm watering for 1.5hr.

I'm no expert, but if it started to germinate already and you stop watering, it will die.  You don't need much water, just keep it damp at this point.  Once you see green you'll want to water longer (deeper), but less often.  I'm on a well too and also watering a large area this spring.  I have four sprinklers set up with a four way control valve set up.  So I let each run about 25 minutes then rotate to the next valve.  I hope my well and well pump survive!

[Sugarloaf1989]

Thanks for the link. It revealed that CT has the same number of reporting locations, 76, as does Maine - less acreage but more people.

FYI: Substituting one's own state's 2-letter abbrev in place of "ct" allows wider browsing.  Maine reports currently have the Sandy at/below 25th percentile, and the Carrabasset not showing the snowmelt bump.  Must mean that remaining snow on C-bass drainage is down to scattered patches plus 'Loaf snowmaking area.  Since snowmaking probably covers about 500 acres tops and the river's drainage area at the North Anson gauge is 353 sq.mi., those snowpiles won't make much difference.

Could be worse, it could be pouring rain and 50 degrees each day...with widespread flooding which is actually dangerous and has some real impacts on people's lives and property.

 

 

Perhaps worse, or at least more frustrating, are days of endless cold dz, where after 4-5 days total precip is about 0.28", so the garden dies from both mildew and drought.

 

 

 

No problem, happy to post the link. We have fewer gauges now than before due to budget cuts. I use this information to judge what I can run with whitewater paddling.

[joey2002]

The 6 hourly and 24 hourly have 80F as the high...even though there is a brief ob of 81F. I think the temp has to be 81F for more than 3 minutes to be official...or maybe its 2 minutes. Its possible it didn't meet those criteria and was just briefly 81F at the time of the ob...very rare, but it does happen.

 

Either that or its an error.

 

Okay, thanks!

[dendrite]

Will, do you know if the high temp at BDL yesterday was 80 or 81 degrees?

I don't see an 81F ob. Like Will said, go with the 6hr and 24hr max in the METAR remarks. The CLI has 80F as well.

[Lava Rock]

I'm no expert, but if it started to germinate already and you stop watering, it will die.  You don't need much water, just keep it damp at this point.  Once you see green you'll want to water longer (deeper), but less often.  I'm on a well too and also watering a large area this spring.  I have four sprinklers set up with a four way control valve set up.  So I let each run about 25 minutes then rotate to the next valve.  I hope my well and well pump survive!

I can't even achieve that with my work schedule. Pretty much watering after work, but with the low humidity, it's dried out by mid-morning the next day. Maybe it's better not to water and provoke germination and have mother nature take over when she's ready.

[joey2002]

I don't see an 81F ob. Like Will said, go with the 6hr and 24hr max in the METAR remarks. The CLI has 80F as well.

 

It looks like there was an 81 degree ob at 5pm, but like Will said, it was probably an error or something.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KBDL.html

 

02 16:51 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy FEW095 SCT250 81 34  

[dendrite]

It looks like there was an 81 degree ob at 5pm, but like Will said, it was probably an error or something.

http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KBDL.html

02 16:51 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy FEW095 SCT250 81 34

It wasn't really 81F though. BDL had a stretch of corrected obs yesterday and the only temp data reported during that time was via the body of the METAR. Temps in the body of the METARs are rounded to whole degrees C. So the real max of 26.7C (80F) showed up as 81F in the METAR converters because it took it as 27.0C. 27C yields two possible values in deg F in the T group in the remarks section...26.7C/80F and 27.2C/81F. In this case it was the 26.7C, but we didn't know it until the 6/24hr maxes came out.

[joey2002]

It wasn't really 81F though. BDL had a stretch of corrected obs yesterday and the only temp data reported during that time was via the body of the METAR. Temps in the body of the METARs are rounded to whole degrees C. So the real max of 26.7C (80F) showed up as 81F in the METAR converters because it took it as 27.0C. 27C yields two possible values in deg F in the T group in the remarks section...26.7C/80F and 27.2C/81F. In this case it was the 26.7C, but we didn't know it until the 6/24hr maxes came out.

 

Ah, that makes sense, I got it now... thanks for the explanation.

[CapturedNature]

The 6 hourly and 24 hourly have 80F as the high...even though there is a brief ob of 81F. I think the temp has to be 81F for more than 3 minutes to be official...or maybe its 2 minutes. Its possible it didn't meet those criteria and was just briefly 81F at the time of the ob...very rare, but it does happen.

 

Either that or its an error.

 

I know this isn't the threads topic but that's interesting.  I have a mercury thermometer on a townsend support that stops where ever the maximum is, even if it's only for a moment.  Isn't it kind of misleading to have a temperature of 81° during the day but it's not actually the maximum temp?

 

Maybe it was a rounding error.  The temp could have hit 80.5° for a moment and it registered as 81° but an old style ob might have registered it as just 80°.  Who knows?

[dendrite]

I know this isn't the threads topic but that's interesting. I have a mercury thermometer on a townsend support that stops where ever the maximum is, even if it's only for a moment. Isn't it kind of misleading to have a temperature of 81° during the day but it's not actually the maximum temp?

Maybe it was a rounding error. The temp could have hit 80.5° for a moment and it registered as 81° but an old style ob might have registered it as just 80°. Who knows?

I explained it in my previous post.

METAR reports temp with a 5 minute running average. If you scavenge through NCDC you can find the raw 1 minute readings. You'll find that the raw minute by minute readings are fairly "jumpy" because of the quick response time of the ASOS sensors. The 5min means smooth this out. I believe this is a WMO definition too...not just the US.

We do it for wind too. Not just the 2 min sustained, but the wind gust is actually a 3s average.

[CapturedNature]

I explained it in my previous post.

METAR reports temp with a 5 minute running average. If you scavenge through NCDC you can find the raw 1 minute readings. You'll find that the raw minute by minute readings are fairly "jumpy" because of the quick response time of the ASOS sensors. The 5min means smooth this out. I believe this is a WMO definition too...not just the US.

We do it for wind too. Not just the 2 min sustained, but the wind gust is actually a 3s average.

 

Yeah, I missed that sorry.  Still interesting though.

[tamarack]

Seriously, should I even bother watering the 1/2 acre of lawn seed we're trying to get to sprout? I've been out there every nite, but with all that lawn, no way to possibly soak the ground. I'm pretty much misting the seeds. We've got a 500' deep well, but I have concerns about running it too low. The hose is going about 4g/min and I'm watering for 1.5hr.

 

Misting is a good description.  Doing the math, 4g/min for 90 min is 360 gallons.  Spread over 1/2 acre, that's about one-fortieth of an inch.  To get the recommended 1" per week (for veggie gardens, anyway) would take nearly 60 hours at 4g/min. 

 

12z gfs looks helpful - around 0.4" next Thurs-Fri then a full inch in la-la land - D9-10.  That's much different than recent runs offering 0.05" or less thru D8; we'll see if it continues.

[Quincy]

"...expect many hours of dry weather."

[Quincy]

Brad Field ‏@BradNBCCT27s

if anyone is counting today is the 13th consecutive day of no measurable rainfall at Bradley International Airport... #weneedsomerain

[Brian5671]

 

Brad Field ‏@BradNBCCT27s

if anyone is counting today is the 13th consecutive day of no measurable rainfall at Bradley International Airport... #weneedsomerain

 

likely to get to 16 or 17 at least...wow.

[Mr Torchey]

likely to get to 16 or 17 at least...wow.

typical normal sne spring weather

[Quincy]

Precipitation last 30 days:

[Brian5671]

typical normal sne spring weather

next year we'll set a record-29 out of 30 days with overcast or something like that...there's always a price to be paid...let's hope it's not this year...

[dendrite]

Precipitation last 30 days:

30day.png

Dry for much of SNE, but NBD unless we see months of this.

[ORH_wxman]

Dry for much of SNE, but NBD unless we see months of this.

 

Pattern looks to be changing to wetter by later next week and beyond. Won't erase the deficits right away, but it will inhibit the chances of this becoming any sort of an issue into summer.

[OceanStWx]

Dry for much of SNE, but NBD unless we see months of this.

 

Dry bullseye right over GYX. The drought is getting bad here.

 

No really, my golf balls are bouncing in the fairway instead of the usual 6 inches deep in the turf.