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The_Global_Warmer

2014 ENSO Mega Thread

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Uncle W, i have a question or anyone else can try to answer it. I read earlier today on the cpc discussion that the easterlies will start to slow down allowing more easterly propigating kelvin waves. If that happened, would that help at least a weak elnino to form if it can stay sustained? I was just wondering.

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Uncle W, i have a question or anyone else can try to answer it. I read earlier today on the cpc discussion that the easterlies will start to slow down allowing more easterly propigating kelvin waves. If that happened, would that help at least a weak elnino to form if it can stay sustained? I was just wondering.

 

 August Nino 3.4 SST anomaly pattern history says the chances of a weak El Nino by this winter (5 trimonths in a row of +0.5+ in Nino 3.4) are extremely slim. An El Nino by next spring or summer? Well, that's a somewhat better possibility but way too far out to predict.

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Just throwing this around. Fooling around with different EOF interpretations of ENSO:

 

Maybe some method to differentiate between east- and west-based events.

 

post-128-0-65154000-1379107395_thumb.png

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Whats up wirth ENSO?

PLj2BjW.gif?1

I'm still maintaining that the chances for even a weak El Nino to have been established by this winter are extremely slim....well under 5%. Dynamic models showing a good bit of warming by now have been dead wrong. The earliest I can see El Nino getting established would be spring of 2014. I'm saying that only because spring of 2014 is still too far out to eliminate that chance and sometimes solid turnarounds do occur by spring. The warmest I could realistically see this winter would be neutral positive although I'm not even forecasting that as of now. It could easily remain in its current neutral negative state. There's even a small chance it could cool down into weak La Nina since it isn't all that far from it. Right now, my assessment of the odds of neutral for the winter are easily the highest followed by a small chance for La Nina. El niño is only a very remote possibility. As I've said, I've studied 38 El Ninos (I.e., a sizable sample).

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Full NINO or not.  ENSO is at least more favorable for a good Southern Stream of energy this winter. 

 

NUloK7W.gif?1

more favorable compared to what? Not last year, at least for SSTAs alone

10OCT2012     20.2-0.6     24.7-0.2     26.8 0.1     29.1 0.4
17OCT2012     20.5-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 09OCT2013     20.1-0.7     24.6-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.6 0.0

navy-anom-b-20121017.gif

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more favorable compared to what? Not last year, at least for SSTAs alone

10OCT2012     20.2-0.6     24.7-0.2     26.8 0.1     29.1 0.4
17OCT2012     20.5-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 09OCT2013     20.1-0.7     24.6-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.6 0.0

navy-anom-b-20121017.gif

 

 I don't know if you remember, but the OISST maps showed sudden false warming around early Nov. It was one of the biggest fake-outs I've ever seen with maps of SST data!

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more favorable compared to what? Not last year, at least for SSTAs alone

10OCT2012     20.2-0.6     24.7-0.2     26.8 0.1     29.1 0.4
17OCT2012     20.5-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 09OCT2013     20.1-0.7     24.6-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.6 0.0

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah last year got pretty close to a weak El Nino at one point. This year isn't even close.

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more favorable compared to what? Not last year, at least for SSTAs alone

10OCT2012     20.2-0.6     24.7-0.2     26.8 0.1     29.1 0.4
17OCT2012     20.5-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 09OCT2013     20.1-0.7     24.6-0.3     26.3-0.3     28.6 0.0

 

Compared to earlier this year ENSO has warmed overall.  I wasn't referring to last year at this time.

 

 

ssta_c.gif

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Compared to earlier this year ENSO has warmed overall.  I wasn't referring to last year at this time.

 

 

 

I don't follow your logic. Same thing happened last year...early 2012 was colder than early 2013 , then it warmed to a point which was warmer than it is at this point of the year. What makes you think this year will be different with that data?...if any, with that limited amount of data, I would think that there's less of a chance of a Niño, with a weaker subtropical jet stream. Obviously there are other factors in play, and it might be that the STJ gets stronger this winter compared to  the last one, but not because of the evolution of the ENSO so far this year.

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I never said there would be a nino or could be a nino.

 

All I said was that the ENSO region has warmed up from earlier this year.  Which is better than if it went closer to a NINA.

I never said you did. You did say that the STJ was going to be better this winter because of the current SSTAs trends. Data don't support your saying.

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...it might be that the STJ gets stronger this winter compared to  the last one, but not because of the evolution of the ENSO so far this year.

What else would strengthen the STJ?

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What else would strengthen the STJ?

 

The MJO can and does at times impact the subtropical jet.  Neutral ENSO winters are more likely to have MJO activity but the subtropical jet is only enhanced across the CONUS during certain MJO phases. 

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latest mei number was -.190...Up from -.614 from last month...latest oni weekly was -0.4...Down from 0.3 last week...The mei is a surprise to me...I thought it would be lower...

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As one advances closer toward winter, I have little changes from the thought that an El Niño was very unlikely this coming winter (#42 in this thread).

 

As had been noted then, I believed that the statistical models would have a better grasp of where things would head than the dynamical ones. That is how things have played out so far and the dynamical models have moved toward the statistical ones since that time. It now appears very likely that the winter will feature Neutral to perhaps borderline La Niña conditions (neutral ENSO with cool anomalies that fall short of full-fledged La Niña conditions).

 

The current dynamical model average now shows no anomaly for ENSO Region 3.4 for the December-February period. The statistical model average has a -0.2°C anomaly for December-February. The ECMWF still appears to be somewhat out to lunch with a warm +0.3°C anomaly for December-February.

 

In fact, that model shows a +0.1°C anomaly for the October-December period. It appears very likely that October will finish with an anomaly close to -0.3°C. If so, the November-December anomaly would have to average +0.3°C for the Euro scenario to verify. In contrast, the statistical model mean for the October-December period is -0.2°C. For that anomaly to verify, the November-December anomaly would have to average -0.15°C. That idea seems far more plausible than a +0.3°C figure.

 

Although it's a little soon to forecast the predominant state of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the odds of a positive AO average for the winter months continue to increase. Persistent strong blocking in October has often been one precursor to a negative or strongly negative wintertime AO. While some blockiness has occurred this month, it has not been notable. Moreover, the ensembles are pointing to the development of a positive to perhaps strongly positive AO toward the end of the month. Second, the Cohen Snow Advance Index (SAI) also seems to lean toward a positive AO at this point in time. Eurasian snow cover has been advancing at a slow rate. One would typically see a fast advance during winters with strong and/or persistent blocking. That both those factors seem to be leaning against a predominantly negative winter AO suggests that prospects for a blocky winter are continuing to decrease. Some periods of blockiness may occur, but one very likely won't see the kind of severe or prolonged blocking that occurred last winter.

 

I'll have some additional thoughts about the upcoming winter in late November. For now, if I had to venture an early guess from all of the data I've seen (beyond ENSO and AO), it appears more likely than not that Winter 2013-14 will wind up on the warm side of normal in the Mid-Atlantic and New England and possibly Great Lakes regions (more uncertainty with respect to the Great Lakes area). Things could still change.

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 I agree 100% with Don. This thinking also agrees with my previous posts that addressed the Nino 3.4 SST patterns that preceded the prior 38 El Ninos. I think El Nino chances in time for winter are now only ~1%. Spring would be somewhat higher since it is further out in time. I also agree about the relatively low SAI as of now and related increased chances for a +AO averaged out over this winter. This is at least partially being caused by the late September well above normal snowcover below 60N in Eurasia.

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O course if we get a good pacific which some have already said will be better than the atlantic this year then we shoulld throw in 1993-94 as a good analog which would at least give NYC a good winter but from philly south we are talking ice of perhaps even just plain rain.

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latest weekly oni was up to 0.0...mei was +0.094...A neutral positive winter could happen now...is el nino not far behind or is this another peak before it drops again?...no el nino ever developed so late in the year so it would be a first...

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After having been stuck in neutral (literally) for so long, I'm ready for the tropical Pacific to do something. I'd prefer El Nino because it tends to bring rain to my area, but I'm not picky at this point.

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ENSO 3 has plummeted.  ENSO 1-2 has dropped substantially as well.

 

 

At the same time the subsurface over a large part of the ENSO region has dramatically warmed.

 

What is the prognosis?

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

20140217.gif

 

 

navy-anom-bb.gif

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Based on the current subsurface anomolies in the ENSO and kelvin wave a quick uptick to El Nino is very likely and may I even venture a guess that we may have something similar to the 2009 El Nino, 1982\1983 El Nino, or the 1997\1998 Super El Nino for the hurricane season if Dr. Ventrice is anywhere near right

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Based on the current subsurface anomolies in the ENSO and kelvin wave a quick uptick to El Nino is very likely and may I even venture a guess that we may have something similar to the 2009 El Nino, 1982\1983 El Nino, or the 1997\1998 Super El Nino for the hurricane season if Dr. Ventrice is anywhere near right

I don't think you get a supr El Niño during cold-phase PDO cycle. At most you get a repeat of 2009-10 or 1972-3; short duration but fairly strong Niño, with suer-fast plunges into Niña territory.  Both 1972-3 and 2009-10 ended that way.

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