April 2013 General Discussion

[weatherbo]

About 5 for down this way!

it's a sad addiction. although i'm happy for spring and summer, I still long for the time when the days begin to shorten and cooler air spreads in and leaves begin to change. it's really sad i'm even thinking about this with snow still on the ground but I love winter and can't help it.  but this isn't winter anymore, and it hurts to see winter try to flex its muscle and hang on,  and still put down snow while the sun angle beats the **** out of its efforts. it's time to succumb to the enevitable thaw and warmer temps... bow down gracefully and let spring win.

In the blink of an eye, it will be June 22nd.

[A-L-E-K]

It's not like I don't look.

But man, accuracy really goes in the crapper past day 6 on the op Euro, GFS, etc. I just get the sense that some think the 252 hour map of the 6z GFS is gonna verify.

 

 

I think they are semi-useful to look at general patterns etc. but even that can be screwed up.

 

In all seriousness, they're totally useless unless you start seeing similar large scale signals pop up on a consistent basis.  Any single run shouldn't get much weight. We're seeing some signs of a pattern breakdown mid April but it's far from solid.  Given our recent climo, i'm skeptical of any pattern breaking too soon.

[wxman1952]

Accuweather, though I don't think is reliable, shows 65 for April 5th in Detroit, the Tigers home opener. Can they be that far off? Weather Ch.com says 49 for Detroit that day.

[Chicago WX]

 

In all seriousness, they're totally useless unless you start seeing similar large scale signals pop up on a consistent basis.  Any single run shouldn't get much weight. We're seeing some signs of a pattern breakdown mid April but it's far from solid.  Given our recent climo, i'm skeptical of any pattern breaking too soon.

 

I think the solid turn to normal or above may be in the cards somewhere around mid-April. That's assuming the blocking breaks down. Only hope I have is that it gets active. 12z GEFS have a wetter 11-15 day signal, so we'll see. Sunny, warm, and boring does nothing for me. Been awhile since I've seen/heard a thunderstorm... 

[Chicago WX]

Accuweather, though I don't think is reliable, shows 65 for April 5th in Detroit, the Tigers home opener. Can they be that far off? Weather Ch.com says 49 for Detroit that day.

 

12z GEFS take the easy under on 65º. Regardless, la la land. And accuweather and TWC blow.

 

[Jonger]

Accuweather, though I don't think is reliable, shows 65 for April 5th in Detroit, the Tigers home opener. Can they be that far off? Weather Ch.com says 49 for Detroit that day.

Accuweather forecasts are computer generated junk.

[Chicago WX]

I could really use a nice sunny 65º on April 12. Outdoor work event...kinda big, kinda important. Can anybody lock that in for me?

[IWXwx]

Back in 1999, mets from IWX prepared a study exploring severe weather history and trends for Northern IN for the period of 1950-1997:

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crh/?n=tsp-09

 

Now they are updating the study, using 1980-2010 for their baseline data. They have posted several graphs and charts with this data as a preview to this study:

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/?n=svrwxclimo

 

The graph that I find interesting is below. Increased frequency of severe weather, better spotting and reporting, or a combination? Let the debate continue:

 

[B-Rent]

Wouldn't better reporting give rise to more tornado reports too?

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2

[A-L-E-K]

Back in 1999, mets from IWX prepared a study exploring severe weather history and trends for Northern IN for the period of 1950-1997:

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crh/?n=tsp-09

 

Now they are updating the study, using 1980-2010 for their baseline data. They have posted several graphs and charts with this data as a preview to this study:

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/?n=svrwxclimo

 

The graph that I find interesting is below. Increased frequency of severe weather, better spotting and reporting, or a combination? Let the debate continue:

 

19802010IWXSevere.png

 

AGW

[IWXwx]

AGW

Increased frequency due to AGW, I wasn't going to bring that up

[Jonger]

AGW

Increased frequency due to AGW, I wasn't going to bring that up

Much of this is based on reports. The internet popped up just about the same time reports shot up 3X. 95% of this increase is due to the internet and a better reporting system.

I have actually noticed a decrease in severe weather where I live.

[Stebo]

Much of this is based on reports. The internet popped up just about the same time reports shot up 3X. 95% of this increase is due to the internet and a better reporting system. I have actually noticed a decrease in severe weather where I live.

 

It is a combination of both increased reports and AGW, your anecdotal evidence that your location has seen a slight reduction doesn't carry much weight.

[Jonger]

Much of this is based on reports. The internet popped up just about the same time reports shot up 3X. 95% of this increase is due to the internet and a better reporting system. I have actually noticed a decrease in severe weather where I live.

 

It is a combination of both increased reports and AGW, your anecdotal evidence that your location has seen a slight reduction doesn't carry much weight.

Absolutely nothing in those reports insinuate AGW. This is all because of the internet.

[Stebo]

Absolutely nothing in those reports insinuate AGW. This is all because of the internet.

 

No it is not just about the internet.

[Jonger]

Absolutely nothing in those reports insinuate AGW. This is all because of the internet.

 

No it is not just about the internet.

Please tell me how great the methods of reporting were in 1990.

[Stebo]

Please tell me how great the methods of reporting were in 1990.

You are having reading comprehension problems? I said it isn't JUST about the internet, which means the internet HAS contributed as well but it is not the ONLY factor. Read more and post less for the sake of everyone here.

[Jonger]

Please tell me how great the methods of reporting were in 1990.

You are having reading comprehension problems? I said it isn't JUST about the internet, which means the internet HAS contributed as well but it is not the ONLY factor. Read more and post less for the sake of everyone here.

"The likely reason for this is an increase in population coupled with improved communications with time."

[hm8]

AGW

 

trolling with truth

[michsnowfreak]

Back in 1999, mets from IWX prepared a study exploring severe weather history and trends for Northern IN for the period of 1950-1997:

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crh/?n=tsp-09

 

Now they are updating the study, using 1980-2010 for their baseline data. They have posted several graphs and charts with this data as a preview to this study:

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/?n=svrwxclimo

 

The graph that I find interesting is below. Increased frequency of severe weather, better spotting and reporting, or a combination? Let the debate continue:

 

19802010IWXSevere.png

Interesting, I already knew snowfall was increasing, but had no idea about severe. Both snowfall AND severe weather increasing would be most wx weenies dream.

[Jonger]

Interesting, I already knew snowfall was increasing, but had no idea about severe. Both snowfall AND severe weather increasing would be most wx weenies dream.

Reports are increasing.... Good luck extrapolating a rise in occurrence out of that mess.

That's the problem with "Records" and "Extreme Events" now days, they are being compared to an era with poor records compared to post-internet era. Now, this doesn't apply to every type of record, but in this case its obvious. The NWS report makes mention of this being the result in event records.

 

1996 was the year that most of America got online in the biggest surge... "You've got Mail". In our case "You've got Hail".

[The_Global_Warmer]

Of course the internet matter but it doesn't match-up the way Jonger describes.

 

 

 

[Jonger]

Of course the internet matter but it doesn't match-up the way Jonger describes.

 

 

 

The first adopters are the highest likely to be weather reporters as well... I have a degree in this field and I started reporting weather observations in 1994. Unless you think severe weather rocketed up 300% in a 5 year period....

[The_Global_Warmer]

lol ok right.

 

But assuming you have some data somewhere compiled that you can back that up with.

 

These Weather reporters were new?  They didn't report weather before the internet but the internet was they key?

[Jonger]

lol ok right.

 

But assuming you have some data somewhere compiled that you can back that up with.

 

These Weather reporters were new?  They didn't report weather before the internet but the internet was they key?

I discovered weather reporting on the net... CompuServe.

[Jonger]

lol ok right.

 

But assuming you have some data somewhere compiled that you can back that up with.

 

These Weather reporters were new?  They didn't report weather before the internet but the internet was they key?

300% increase in a 5 year period is all I need for verification. It's in the NWS report... They list this as he main reason for the rise.

[on_wx]

I went through and tallied up April tornado statistics for Ontario. 

 

Between 1950-2012...

• 11 tornado years out of 62 years
• 2009 highest with 5 tornadoes
• 1967 second highest with 4 tornadoes

 

[weatherbo]

300% increase in a 5 year period is all I need for verification. It's in the NWS report... They list this as he main reason for the rise.

watch it Jonger, you're gonna be accused of having insufficient reading comp skills.

[Geos]

Interesting chart Friv. I joined the internet fairly early - early to mid 1997. First I just saw the internet while I was in HS, but then I got it at home a little later. 

 

After seeing Hal's tornado stats, I remember that one of the most damaging local tornadoes occurred around April 20th, 1996. F2 hit Zion & Gurnee. Worst damage was a few roofs ripped off, some garages were really messed up as well from falling trees.

[Hoosier]

Anyone who has read anything about global warming and severe thunderstorms would know that, as of now, the connection is tenuous at best. Actually, an argument can be made that extreme warming could lead to some decrease in tornadoes due to less temperature contrasts/weaker jet stream/weaker shear. Whether that would apply to hail and wind, I don't know. The drastic increase in spotters/reporting seems like an obvious reason for the increase.