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Late March snow blitz! March 24-25th


cyclone77

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Just catching up and saw this post. Mike Ryan pointed out in his disco yesterday that it will be REALLY rare for IND:

 

THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN TWO DAYS AFTER MARCH 24 IN HISTORY WHERE INDY HAS RECEIVED 4 INCHES OR GREATER. THOSE TWO DAYS ARE 4/9/1897 AND 3/24/1912. STEPPING BACK TO 3 INCHES OR GREATER...THE NUMBER OF DAYS INCREASE ONLY TO 4. POTENTIALLY A REMARKABLE CONCLUSION TO A WINTER THAT DOES NOT YET WANT TO LEAVE.

Wow. I apologize for doubting. Indy is not THAT far south from Detroit, didnt realize itd be THAT rare. Since 1881, Detroit has had 38 snowstorms drop 3"+ after March 24th.

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NAM keeps on going back and forth. HIstoric hit, then no historic hit, historic hit, no historic hit.......

 

it seems the nceps are having issue handling the whole transfer deal.  The globals have much cleaner solutions.    Even the big breaks and jackpots in the precip shield that the nam and gfs keep screwing with aren't as evident with the globals.

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To bad its likely to wet on qpf thus cut the snow amounts by a third or so.

My guess is the other models hold serve. The interaction between the energy and the seasonal change will give the models fits on this.

 

My hunch is the whole QPF field is off. RARE is the day snow does not make it up to atleast I94 in southern MI with the surface low and a closed off UL tracking north of the river across Indiana to Dayton/Columbus/Near Cleveland.

 

Being it is Spring ( more dynamics to work with ) i wont doubt higher QPF just the placement.

 

Ofcourse this is the NAM we are discussing. :P

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My hunch is the whole QPF field is off. RARE is the day snow does not make it up to atleast I94 in southern MI with the surface low and a closed off UL tracking north of the river across Indiana to Dayton/Columbus/Near Cleveland.

 

Being it is Spring ( more dynamics to work with ) i wont doubt higher QPF just the placement.

 

Ofcourse this is the NAM we are discussing. :P

 

the whole thing is strange....even the rgem  looks like the low pulls northwest between 36 and 48 hrs and becomes stacked under the ULL.   Looking at the surface maps you'd expect that a lot of places in IN and OH would be warming enough for mixing problems but the 850s crash as the low moves north....     If nothing else this will be interesting to watch unfold.

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the whole thing is strange....even the rgem  looks like the low pulls northwest between 36 and 48 hrs and becomes stacked under the ULL.   Looking at the surface maps you'd expect that a lot of places in IN and OH would be warming enough for mixing problems but the 850s crash as the low moves north....     If nothing else this will be interesting to watch unfold.

 

 

It closes off at 500mb and that is one way to pull the surface low towards the nnw/nw or heck even west ( will only go so far west/nw etc though because it becomes basically attached to the 500mb low) and one of the best examples of this would be Jan 78. Has been others in recent times as well but not nearly as strong and thus a bit more forgotten. Usually after closing off the warmer air gets shoved to the south/east and or in some cases it ends up wrapping to the north/nw of the storm ( near/south of storm is colder )  and thus see Nov 1950 if i recall right?

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I take it you missed the part where I said that it should say March 26th. :P

 

Oh.. :axe:

 

Well 6.5 on April 18th is pretty impressive as well. Have only had one such event here that late/later which was that freak May 9th snowstorm back in the 1920s which dumped 6-12+ from here on up to Lansing/Thumb etc. Came close in late April 1967 with 6 but that is it.

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Oh.. :axe:

Well 6.5 on April 18th is pretty impressive as well. Have only had one such event here that late/later which was that freak May 9th snowstorm back in the 1920s which dumped 6-12+ from here on up to Lansing/Thumb etc. Came close in late April 1967 with 6 but that is it.

Yes it is. Highs were well into the 40s for that 1926 event so I'm guessing it was mostly an overnight thing. It must've melted pretty quickly as snow depth at measurement time was only a T.

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ECMWF with a 994mb low in North Central KY just south of Cincy... hard to tell the exact track at this second. Will edit it some more details in a sec. 

 

Yeah pretty decent shift north, and ~ 2 mb deeper than last night's run too.  Not totally unexpected though given the UKMET did roughly the same tonight.

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