PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 bottome line, the12z euro will tell the tale...if it holds that means the gfs took a crap I just don't see the EURO making a drastic shift like that. It's just to superior to the GFS. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 700mb rh plots look good on the 12z GFS for northern IN...but then the story is told at 850mb. Dry dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM gives a good chunk of North Central Indiana foot of snow while the GFS would be a couple inches at best. This is a fun one to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 bottome line, the12z euro will tell the tale...if it holds that means the gfs took a crap If it didn't, there might be something else that does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Don't see too many extreme shifts like this in the short range...from one of the better models. I guess nothing is ever easy in the world of weather. 0z GFS 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 if it brings any comfort to those who don't want a southern trend, you have the nogaps which is holding serve at 12z bringing the low well into southern OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12z RGEM snow/weenie map. Buries Indy and locations around there. St. Louis does very well. 8-10" for LAF. I'd hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12z RGEM snow/weenie map. Buries Indy and locations around there. St. Louis does very well. 8-10" for LAF. I'd hit it. 3:23 12z RGEM snow map.gif Another reliever after that drastic shift with the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I thought traditional thinking was to use the NAM close in to the event and the GFS for longer term. Maybe that guidance is out the window. We will soon be looking at radar and nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I thought traditional thinking was to use the NAM close in to the event and the GFS for longer term. Maybe that guidance is out the window. We will soon be looking at radar and nowcasting. With the way things have been the past couple of winters, I don't know if we should any of them at any time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 9z SREF weenied out. Mean total is 13.2" for LAF. Lowest member is 7.2" and the highest...26.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 9z SREF weenied out. Mean total is 13.2" for LAF. Lowest member is 7.2" and the highest...26.9". Can you give the SREF for either ILX or KDEC, if available? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Can you give the SREF for either ILX or KDEC, if available? Thanks in advance. DEC Mean: 12.9" High: 19.1" Low: 6.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 DEC Mean: 12.9" High: 19.1" Low: 6.2" How trustworthy is the SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 DEC Mean: 12.9" High: 19.1" Low: 6.2" I wouldn't mind that. Isn't the SREF "usually" pretty "good" to use in this timeframe? I know that none of the models seem to "really good" to use with the way they have been performing lately lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It looks like snow is going to be "now casted" up this way. Possibilities for 1-3" around here, possible lake enhancement, and Skilling seems to think around 5" is possible, so we will wait and see. The good news is, with the weather toward mid week next week, any snowfall isn't going to last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This from LMK regarding the GFS: Yes, it is quite a shift. WPC's latest model diagnostic discussion points out some initialization errors in TX with the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 :weenie: Forget triple, that's like a 5 bunner. Nice to see it so high though as we have some room when it (probably inevitably) comes down. 12z GFS is ugly. I agree with you though that it's suspicious when a model makes that large of a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 HPC not using the 12z GFS at this point... .DEVELOPING UPR LOW OVER THE LWR MO VALLEY REACHING THE MID-ATLCBY 25/1800Z......STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW TRACKING ALONG THE NC/SC COAST...PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE/FCST CONFIDENCE: THRU 25/1200Z...A 12ZNAM/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN BLEND (AVG CONFIDENCE)...THEREAFTER...A 00ZECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN BLEND (AVG CONFIDENCE)A STRONG SHRTWV CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE TX/OK PANHANDLES ISFCST TO TRACK NEWRD REACHING THE OZARKS BY SUN MORNING. MODELSAGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEG-TILTED WHILE MOVING THRU THELWR OH VALLEY/MID-ATLC RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING CLOSED UPRLOW. THIS INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS FCST TO ALLOW A SFC CYCLONETO DEEPEN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPR LOW CENTER BEFORE ITBEGINS TO WEAKEN GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. MUCHVARIABILITY EXISTS IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WHILEMIGRATING ALONG THE OUTER BANKS BY 25/0000Z. LOOKING AT THE 12ZNAM...IT COMPARES QUITE FAVORABLY TO THE 00Z RUN THRU 48 HRS WHILETHE 06Z NAM WAS DECIDEDLY SLOWER. INTERESTINGLY...AT25/1800Z...THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE NAM ARE IN THE SAME LOCATIONNEAR THE MOUTH OF THE DE BAY. THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES IN THE NAMBEFORE MORE PREVALENT WITH THE 12Z NAM BEGIN THE FASTEST INEJECTING THE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 12Z GFSHAS SHIFTED SLOWER AS THE ENERGY DIVES THRU THE OZARKS ON SUNMORNING. THEREAFTER...THIS RUN OF THE GFS IS WEAKER AND A BIT TOTHE S OF THE 06Z/00Z RUNS. THIS SHIFT ACTUALLY MAKES A SRN OUTLIERBY LATE SUN. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE 12Z GFS BECOMES FASTER ANDSTILL WEAKER ALOFT WHILE CROSSING THE MID-ATLC AND CONTINUINGOFFSHORE. THIS FASTER NATURE MAKES IT FASTER THAN ANY OTHERAVAILABLE GUIDANCE. AT THE SFC...THE LATEST GFS TRENDED DEEPER ASTHE LOW CROSSES THE OUTER BANKS ON MON MORNING. COMPARED TO OTHERMODELS...THE 12Z NAM IS THE DEEPEST ALOFT AT 24/1200Z WITH A534-DM HGT CONTOUR ACRS SERN KS WITH THIS STRENGTH DIFFERENCECONTINUING ONWARD. FURTHER...THERE ARE ACTUALLY SOME TIMINGDIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN BEING AHEAD OFTHE CLUSTER. BY 25/0000Z...THE 12Z NAM BECOME A BIT SLOWERALTHOUGH IT DOES GAIN SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEANWHICH IS SLOWER THAN ITS PARENT DETERMINISTIC RUN. WHILE THE 12ZNAM HAD BEEN CONSIDERED TOO DEEP...IT BECOMES JOINED BY THE 00ZECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN AND 09Z SREF MEAN WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPRLOW ACRS THE OH VALLEY. WITH REGARD TO THE DEVELOPING COASTALLOW...THE ENS CLUSTERING IS MUCH BETTER THAN IN THE PAST FEW MODELCYCLES. THE CURRENT OUTLIERS ARE THE 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN/00ZUKMET WHICH ARE DEFINITELY S AND E OF THIS CLUSTER WHICH IS LIKELYDUE TO THEIR SLOWER AND FURTHER S 500-MB TROF PROGRESSION AT THISTIME. AS THE LOW CENTER PUSHES OFFSHORE...THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TOOCLOSE TO THE COASTLINE AS ENS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOMETHING FURTHEROFFSHORE. THE CURRENT PREFERENCE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THECLUSTERING OF THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN THRU 25/12000Z. THETRACK OF THE 12Z NAM HUGGING THE COAST LATER ON REMOVES IT FROMCONSIDERATION AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN SOLNTHEREAFTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It will be interesting to see what the updated HPC prob maps look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Severe dry air issues with the GFS for LAF and northern Indiana. Of course, seen this move by the models before, only to correct back northwest. No idea if that'll happen with this one, but late huge moves by a model is kinda questionable to me. Saw that with the last 2 storms and it turned out to be bogus. The only time dry air issues were really realized was that dying/occluding storm the 3rd week of February. Sometimes the models "go nuts" within 24 hours of the event. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The good news is, with the weather toward mid week next week, any snowfall isn't going to last long. Such an abnormal trip for us - I hope this has staying power myself. We won't get anything up here tomorrow but our wooded areas are still holding solid with a base of ice beneath. A lot better than muddy trails. We had a gorgeous late afternoon walk on the pack Thursday evening. Even some ice fishing still going. Lovin' it. Loved last year in the 80's too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I guess the snow would kind of cool... This is a bit reminiscent of 1993, where we got 2" of snow on April 1st of that year. And that was year of the floods along the Mississippi... Not saying there is a correlation.... Nonetheless, I am thinking, at least around here, we are going to be "nowcasting" tomorrow.... I would gather at least 1" and as much as 4" for my slice of the area here. It all depends on whether or not it comes north more, or south....The heavy snow is mighty close, and wouldn't take much of shift to bring it up this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Love the GFS! Hope it's actually correct. We will see what happens. It may end up being a situation where the temps never cool quickly enough to support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 New Quad Cities update: .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013MORNING 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN THE DEEPSOUTH...TIGHT BAROCLINICITY OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH TENNESSEE...ANDA POTENT UPPER SHORT WAVE EXITING COLORADO INTO THIS ZONE. IT ISCERTAIN AN INTERESTING IS GOING TO DEVELOP TODAY INTO TONIGHT.HOWEVER...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR OUR CWA IS FAR FROM CERTAIN.THE DATA MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE OVERMONTANA...AND THERE IS MINIMAL OR NOW UPPER RIDGING FARTHER EASTOVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...THUS THE IMPRESSIVEENERGY TO THE WEST WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF IOWA. UNFORTUNATELY FORTHOSE WHO WOULD LIKE TO SEE HEAVY QPF...THIS MEANS MOISTURETRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLY WILL BE LIMITED...ANDCOULD BE ONLY COHERENT IN THE SHOT OF SNOW LATER THIS EVENING ANDOVERNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE MAY BE FULLY DISCONNECTED FROM A MOISTFEED. THIS MEAN THAT A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED...AND AMOUNTSSHOULD NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 How trustworthy is the SREF? Decent with track....habitually overdoes QPF. I usually take 30-40% off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12Z EURO update anyone??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12Z EURO update anyone??? Marion gets ~0.75" qpf this run. Lafayette: ~0.83" St Louis: ~1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 LSX updates again. They rode the 00z and 06z NAM and have finally caved to the Euro, well kinda, but are still North of all of the models but the NAM. The NAM is junk. The RAP shows the NAM and it's bogus phased in and out solution is junk. Either way this would be a pretty huge storm for STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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