MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Huge hit on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 WOW, absolute perfect depiction for us...almost all of the signficant snow falls in the mature CCB, where ratios can be 8:1 or a little higher, not much wasted if any... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 at 60hr, the cbb actually should be getting stronger as it really closes off the NJ coast....yet the surface reflection diminishes it, slightly. again, i wouldnt worry about the surface cuz the upper levels are really really impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wow.. Even covers CT with the .5"/6 hr qpf! Once the NAM locks into a solution at the surface, it doesnt want to move! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Finally a NYC/NJ special after being on the edge for all other storms??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Nice! The blocking slows this thing down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Sim radar says you guys are done by 66.. but nice for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Can anyone just answer if Sullivan County in the western Catskills is in the game or in the periphery? Going by NAM alone, Sullivan Cty is in the game. Whether or not you will be in the periphery or on the outer edge is still unknown because some of the models differ on this. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Finally a NYC/NJ special after being on the edge for all other storms??? QPF winners are S NJ and PHL area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Guys! Dont look at say why is it 980mb and so little qpf! There is also a -PNA keep that in mind! Frontigentic forcin and gulf moisture will give us a major storm potential but if we had a +PNA we would of had a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 i still think the nam is on the NW side of guidance so while its nice to lookout, dont get your hopes up that the cbb is right on top of your backyard just yet. if you blend a little of the nam into a euro, ggem, and gfs solution.... this looks like a PHL, SNJ, LI hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Less QPF this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 For those who cant see his site , his red line which starts in S CT includes LI NYC , the lower hudson valley , all of NJ down thru Philly is the area where he thinks 5 to 10 is possible on top of the 4 plus he has forecasted for our area are possible . Its the most aggressive forecast I have seen , so I just wanted you guys to see it . he posted the map on twitter @BigJoeBastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Based off the snow maps looks like 6-10 inches for NyC metro! More south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 FROM JB ....Here are things to remember: Snow is likely to accumulate more on areas inclined north than south. Even though it is late in the year, this will be a very cold storm for many, so high ratio snow can occur. However, it is within the red line that the greatest problems could occur, because as the storm reaches the coast, rapid feedback intensification could lead to snow amounts 5-10 inches greater than what I have. ( HE HAS US IN THE 4 PLUS ) This is still over 72 hours away in this area, and a turn more north in the storm track would lead to more in New England. As of this writing, the storm's greatest snows from the Midwest east look to be in the I-70 to I-80 area rather than working up toward I-90. This has the chance, relative to the season, to be one of the bigger storms so late in the year. It has a lot of similarities to the April 6-7, 1982 storm, which broke late season records around NYC. For those who cant see his site , his red line which starts in S CT includes LI NYC , the lower hudson valley , all of NJ down thru Philly is the area where he thinks 5 to 10 is possible on top of the 4 plus he has forecasted for our area are possible . Its the most aggressive forecast I have seen , so I just wanted you guys to see it . This belongs in the vendor blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 For the most part, the entire southern half of the area gets crushed at HR 54 on the 4km NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think we're in a good place right now. I'm feeling like our chances for at least 3" are very high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think we're in a good place right now. I'm feeling like our chances for at least 3" are very high Agreed if I lived north of a line from Monticello to Peekskill to Central CT to Boston Id very worried, but even there they have a decent chance. I think we are good for at least a moderate snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The Euro ensembles are very much in line with the idea that this is goin to be a pretty good QPF event . So even if one threw the NAM out , this is goin to be a very good late March snowstorm . This wil be focused right along I80 if anyone thought this was gona be a shunt , you`re gona be in for a rude awakening . Those solutions are gone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Beautiful banding potential on the 4km. rad54.gif WAY different than the NCEP product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Beautiful banding potential on the 4km. rad54.gif cld57.gif Only Problem is it's mid day..how much of that snow sticks?..Would be more excited if it was happening at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Really doesn't get much better than the 9z SREF Entire sub-forum gets smashed. Just pray the GFS/NAM/GGEM/SREF are all correct: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Only Problem is it's mid day..how much of that snow sticks?..Would be more excited if it was happening at night It would be 31 or 32 (according to the NAM) with 2" an hour snow falling. It will stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Watch the winds here , With minus 4 at 850 , the surface is going right to 32 with these rates . You are probably looking Blizzard conditons develop prob through CNJ with 40 mph winds closer to the coast . There mayb a few places see 6 to 12 inches of SNOW guys . Too many taking this too lightly in CNJ . Think there mayb power outages in the hardest hit areas , a ft of wet concrete and winds dont mix well on power lines This is not gona be 3 inches for some , this happened in 82 , you are probably looking at a similar event here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Very worried about the Euro Euro Control and its 0z ensembles are telling you , that you are getting a snowstorm , what are you worried about ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 FWIW 6z non-weenie maps have 12"+ for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Hr 51 gfs 992 just east of Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Ugly run. Gfs kicks it east from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The new GFS is well south and east with the precipitation shield at 54 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I can't believe how wrapped up the 00z Euro ensembles were compared to even the 12z EUro ensembles from yesterday. That really adds a significant wrinkle to the forecast. Compared to the 00z OP Euro they are only a tick north and west but the precipitation shield is much more expansive with the significant precipitation owing to the CCB kissing the NJ Shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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