Superstorm93 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12z GFS is a huge miss Precip doesn't even reach NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 there is basically no precip north of I-78 on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The major interactions aloft happen between 42 and 54 hours -- and this is where the higher resolution models (NAM, SREF, and now RGEM) are tucking the surface low in along the coast. Given their tendency to do this during the winter (and be wrong with the idea) my confidence remains very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Another solution by the GFS . Unbelieveable inconsistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Gfs has .1+ to NYC. Nothing north of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Another solution by the GFS . Unbelieveable inconsistency. Its the GFS...how is it unbelievable? It does this every storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Its the GFS...how is it unbelievable? It does this every storm It matches the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It matches the euro.it's drier than the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It matches the euro. Even the ensembles didn't match the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Its probably alot closer to reality than the worthless NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 not really...gfs has been pretty good inside 3/4 days. the fact that its close to euro at h5 is concerning. nam/sref have been showing bombs all winter long for the area and they have been wrong. lets keep things into perspective now...and not jump on the solutions that only show weenie snow bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The NAM and SREFS have been too far west this winter and the GFS too far east with some storms. I would probably wait for the 12z Euro and ensembles to get an idea of what we may be looking at here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 RELAX . This a typical SE BIAS thats in this model for the last 20 years . This storm is coming off Hatteras , and gets to SNJ and turns out SE of the BM . AND THATS OUR GOLDEN SOLUTION RIGHT ? Its what the Euro ensembles have , its what the JMA has seen for 5 days , but the GFS is just south of that , you should expect this 3 days out it will only correct West , its the same way you shuld expect the NAM print out 15 inches of snow within one of its next 4 runs , only to back off just before the event We go over this every time , every storm , every run . Since early Feb they hav all come , they turn out colder as we get closer , and the models have misread the confluence in each of the last 3 systems , I am not laughing at the GFS , just saying how many times does one have to see this . I will ride the EURO ensembles . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What do we do now... lol - IDK I cant take a model that is showing a different solution every run seriously. - I guess we hope the Euro matches its ensembles and the CMC comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 So 48 to 60 hrs away we have some Models showing a major Snowstorm and Others showing barely a dusting.. OK got it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The differences aloft between the NAM and GFS at 54 hours are alarming. Not only is the NAM much more amplified with the mid level vort max..pushing it underneath Long Island...but it's also hundreds of miles farther north with the ULL/gyre to the north of New England. This is what is opening the door for the more amplified solution. The GFS, interestingly, trended more favorable with that feature on this 12z run...but was farther southeast and less amplified with the main vort max over the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 it's drier than the euro Yeah. Euro had .22" for NYC. The new 12z ukmet is a closer match to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 For the little that its worth...the 48 hr RGEM is spot on with the 12z NAM. It seems to be handling that lead vort max very similarly that allows the surface low to tuck in north and west initially. This is a huge difference for us. The GFS never gets the surface low this far north and west at any point. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013032312/I_nw_r1_EST_2013032312_048.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 For the little that its worth...the 48 hr RGEM is spot on with the 12z NAM. It seems to be handling that lead vort max very similarly that allows the surface low to tuck in north and west initially. This is a huge difference for us. The GFS never gets the surface low this far north and west at any point. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013032312/I_nw_r1_EST_2013032312_048.png After that frame my loop goes kaplooey what does it show after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 For the little that its worth...the 48 hr RGEM is spot on with the 12z NAM. It seems to be handling that lead vort max very similarly that allows the surface low to tuck in north and west initially. This is a huge difference for us. The GFS never gets the surface low this far north and west at any point. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013032312/I_nw_r1_EST_2013032312_048.png It going to be a very important Euro run to confirm or deny those tucked in solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 After that frame my loop goes kaplooey what does it show after that? The RGEM only goes out to 48 hours. Assuming the GGEM doesn't have any major differences (which isn't always true) we'll get to see a lower resolution depiction of what the RGEM had showed in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It going to be a very important Euro run to conform or deny those tucked in solutions. This is another bizarre forecast when it comes to modeling. We have seen some very inconsistent model trends this year. But now, 48 hours before the event, we have some real separation between the big dogs and some of the usually more reliable QPF models even at this range. What's somewhat alarming to me is that every single SREF member shows a tucked in bomb. Not one of them shows a miss. The NAM agrees, the RGEM has the surface low in a very similar position to the NAM at 48 hr (at a position that the GFS never comes close to bringing the low pressure center) and the Euro Ens showed a significant lean to the northwest. This could all be fodder if the OP and Ens Euro come in and show nothing in 2 hours. But for now its very intriguing for our area...and I say hold on a minute before we declare the NAM and SREF weenie solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The NAM and SREF (mean) have gone bonkers two days out with two other storms in the last six weeks (Nemo and Snowquester), which have been general duds down here. You guys did ok in Nemo but not as well as the NAM had you and you all know how bad Snowquester was. Keep that in mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The NAM and SREF (mean) have gone bonkers two days out with two other storms in the last six weeks (Nemo and Snowquester), which have been general duds down here. You guys did ok in Nemo but not as well as the NAM had you and you all know how bad Snowquester was. Keep that in mind... Umm some places got 24" or more in "nemo" and most of central/northern NJ had 8 to 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The NAM and SREF (mean) have gone bonkers two days out with two other storms in the last six weeks (Nemo and Snowquester), which have been general duds down here. You guys did ok in Nemo but not as well as the NAM had you and you all know how bad Snowquester was. Keep that in mind... 30 inches here in "nemo" though i agree with your general background sentiment of "the nam sucks" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Umm some places got 24" or more in "nemo" and most of central/northern NJ had 8 to 16" Right...north and east of NYC...I'm talking city and south/west, where it modeled 20"+... It had Trenton picking up 12" and they barely got 2... Some of ya'll won't realize the NAM is a terrible model since it will spit a ton of snow at a drop of a hat...carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Right...north and east of NYC...I'm talking city and south/west, where it modeled 20"+... I'll take the 12.5" I got from Nemo in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM looks terrible.. NAM is all alone my friends.. Sub 980 low east of Cape May yet it can barely get precip into the area wow.. And whatever falls is rain smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM looks terrible.. NAM is all alone my friends.. Sub 980 low east of Cape May yet it can barely get precip into the area wow.. And whatever falls is rain smh Based on precip maps alone (which again we all now can be wrong so I dont know why you're always quoting it as fact) it is better than last nights 00z run. We'll have to see B and W maps in a bit but it looks like it upped precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GGEM has a 978 low and it still gives us rain? How? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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