SR Airglow Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 You can see the ggem total precip on meteocentre: Total precip through hour 108: Total snow through hour 108: Wow, that's a low end warning event for some of the region, high end advisory for everyone else...(15 mm is .59 liquid or 6" snow) Has the GGEM been better since it's "upgrade"? It was pretty bad before... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Ull to our north after next weeks storm kills us for the 24th. Flow to progressive fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Euro 12z op is very blocky and cold. Ull really kills us for storm chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Wow, that's a low end warning event for some of the region, high end advisory for everyone else...(15 mm is .59 liquid or 6" snow) Has the GGEM been better since it's "upgrade"? It was pretty bad before... -skisheep It's still running behind the Euro, GFS, and UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Mid to late March overrunning events are not going to get the job done in most situations, FWIW, especially when the surface is so borderline. Anyone remember the St. Patrick's Day Parade in the late 90's (?) seemed like it snowed light to mdt during the entire event and never accumulated at all, even in the burbs. So...in short, the GGEM would likely be a snow of beauty, and not of the accumulating nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 The 12z GGEM brings the overrunning early Monday morning, with the 1032mb high still to the north. The GFS and ECMWF have the overrunning come in later in the day, with the high shifting. If the GGEM was correct, I think we could get thumping. The GFS and ECMWF solutions would most likely be just slop at best for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a front end thump for the area . It's similiar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a front end thump for the area . It's similiar to the op. temps are so borderline that whatever falls at night has a much better chance of being snow - any daytime solar influence lessens the chance of snow reaching the lower levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a front end thump for the area . It's similiar to the op. Roughly how much falls as snow on the op and ens? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Pretty dead in here tonight...but both the GFS and GGEM pick up on the wave I was speaking about in my post earlier today. I think this is the one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 hi Jon i read your post with awe. ridiculous setup for late march. you said two winters ago that you love to see the setup in order before the players are on the field because it makes the model solution believable. having said that, do you have enough faith in the gfs or ggem to keep the interest? even though the solutions make sense, its hard not to think we are being mindbended again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Euro looks flat out awesome at 162. Everything is coming together for this one it seems like with the block retrograding west and the favorable MJO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 ULL really hangs around so the storm will get suppressed this run. What a nice looking pattern though, it looks like mid winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Looking really good, just hope it doesn't melt away over the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 No snowstorm on the 23rd please. I'm going to Virginia on that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The problem is this: a jan pattern in late march often does not yield the same weather outcome. You gotta show me a sub 985 mb low at the bm to get my attention...otherwise thermally....well. ULL really hangs around so the storm will get suppressed this run. What a nice looking pattern though, it looks like mid winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The problem is this: a jan pattern in late march often does not yield the same weather outcome. You gotta show me a sub 985 mb low at the bm to get my attention...otherwise thermally....well. Maybe for the city itself but us folks out west can cash in with a closer to the coast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The problem is this: a jan pattern in late march often does not yield the same weather outcome. You gotta show me a sub 985 mb low at the bm to get my attention...otherwise thermally....well. The air mass being forcast for that time period will not need a low that strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Maybe for the city itself but us folks out west can cash in with a closer to the coast track. Coastal areas can do just fine in the right setups, both very early and late in the season-April 7, 2003 wasn't that powerful a storm and it snowed over half a foot right down to the shore. The early November storm is another example and it certainly stuck inside the city. Snow even stuck here in the late Oct storm and Central Park had 4". Granted we need some more things to happen than you guys do, but it's not a huge additional leap to have snow everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Coastal areas can do just fine in the right setups, both very early and late in the season-April 7, 2003 wasn't that powerful a storm and it snowed over half a foot right down to the shore. The early November storm is another example and it certainly stuck inside the city. Snow even stuck here in the late Oct storm and Central Park had 4". Granted we need some more things to happen than you guys do, but it's not a huge additional leap to have snow everywhere. The point of my post was that while I agree that a lot of things have to go right to go snow on the coast in mid-late March we have a bit more room to play with out in the Western burbs. This time of year we really need a nice, solid miller A with a good CCB cranking over the area. Miller A's have been a problem this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 0z NAEFS Impressive for mid to late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 0z NAEFS Impressive for mid to late March The problem is that the normal highs for this time of year are in the low to mid 50's. Slightly to moderatly below average temperatures won't be cold enough for snow. When all is said and done, I don't think anyone in this sub-forum has a right to complain about this winter. For the DC to Philly folks, well that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Blocking update... The AO has now begun to fall consistent with recent model forecasts.After peaking at -0.737 yesterday, the AO has now fallen to -1.063. The decline is forecast to continue and accelerate with the AO bottoming out over the next 6-12 days at extreme and possibly historic levels for this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Coastal areas can do just fine in the right setups, both very early and late in the season-April 7, 2003 wasn't that powerful a storm and it snowed over half a foot right down to the shore. The early November storm is another example and it certainly stuck inside the city. Snow even stuck here in the late Oct storm and Central Park had 4". Granted we need some more things to happen than you guys do, but it's not a huge additional leap to have snow everywhere. the April 7 , 2003 storm had temps well into the 40's the day before - and strong high pressure was building down from eastern canada and a perfect storm track and good timing all contributed to this rare event - thats been one of the main problems this whole winter poor positioning of systems and poor timing for the areas who have received below average snowfall this winter - and looks like the same thing is going to happen the next couple of weeks for many areas http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/07-Apr-03-SurfaceMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The problem is that the normal highs for this time of year are in the low to mid 50's. Slightly to moderatly below average temperatures won't be cold enough for snow. When all is said and done, I don't think anyone in this sub-forum has a right to complain about this winter. For the DC to Philly folks, well that's a different story. Yea I feel bad for the DC crew. They are still paying for 09-10, and this year it has been especially painful as places to their west have had a pretty good year. My town (Staunton, VA, 150mi SW of DC) has gotten about 30" this year, right around avg for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Blocking update... The AO has now begun to fall consistent with recent model forecasts.After peaking at -0.737 yesterday, the AO has now fallen to -1.063. The decline is forecast to continue and accelerate with the AO bottoming out over the next 6-12 days at extreme and possibly historic levels for this late in the season. what's the record low AO for march? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I know its the nam. I thought there would have been mention of it at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Blocking update... The AO has now begun to fall consistent with recent model forecasts.After peaking at -0.737 yesterday, the AO has now fallen to -1.063. The decline is forecast to continue and accelerate with the AO bottoming out over the next 6-12 days at extreme and possibly historic levels for this late in the season. and what type of events coincided here with the AO that low in mid to late March ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I know its the nam. I thought there would have been mention of it at least. Temps are pretty cold but the intensity is light and some of it falls during the day. Probably a 1-3 or 2-4 type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 what's the record low AO for march? -6.365 on March 5, 1970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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