powderfreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Coincided with the micro spiral on the west side of the ULL, check it out ran right down the bridge! http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130306&endTime=-1&duration=4 That is pretty freakin cool. Going to be fun watching this play out further north. Interior SE MA about to get a blue bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You can see the precipitation expanding NW around NYC area and the shield is trying to open up to the NE....looks like it should IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 When I look at the radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BOX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes I cannot help but think that the reason the mesos are so wet is that the stuff that comes later works in conjunction/seeds/feeds what's here. This could really help to explain why some of the models aren't doing so hot. Also, note the spin coming south off the Delmarva, Euro pretty much FTW there dragging precip down. Notice also on Wunder that nice little speedmax that just ran east of the bridge, very obvious on WV. Stormtracker dropped by earlier to point out how badly things went but that the Euro was best, and looking at this I'd say it's compromise definitely towards the Euro, but maybe not as far south more like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why is it that 3 hours ago everyone was talking big numbers liking the European model and other models agreed with the big snow storm head and now just 3 hours later the National Weather Service drop me too 4 to 6 inches and people are talking 5 to 10 inches. WHAT the POOP happened in 3 hours!? Muuuuust be something to do with Nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why is it that 3 hours ago everyone was talking big numbers liking the European model and other models agreed with the big snow storm head and now just 3 hours later the National Weather Service drop me too 4 to 6 inches and people are talking 5 to 10 inches. WHAT the POOP happened in 3 hours!? Muuuuust be something to do with Nowcasting. I think most are just being cautious...I think you will do quite well (like >8") with your 325 feet of elevation in N RI. There's high bust potential in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That is pretty freakin cool. Going to be fun watching this play out further north. Interior SE MA about to get a blue bomb. As Will said this is all pretty much per the Euro script. Check this out, 500mb at 7pm on the Euro. Like I said not perfect but darn good. Also time sensitive, you can see the rotation working down, makes me think the Euro did okay with the mini circulations it was forming later (one north one south). Timing isn't perfect but pretty reasonable http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=DOX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 My HPC Percentiles Continue to Rise. 70% Chance of 12", 35% Chance of 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 LOL classic stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 at what point did the euro abandon the ULL getting a good swing North.....last nite's run? i thought as trough went neggy, the ull had been model'd to swing north and bring our fire hose, forgive me if i'm mistaken so now the firehose is push'd back to thurs eve....and it's the second sw interacting with the storm that reinvigorates and pushes it north (?) and gets it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 LOL I hope I can make the same video but with Channel 7 News here in Boston. LoL. Just in my video there will be snow everywhere and not Rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 HPC seems fairly bullish, 70% of 4" for my area and 40% of 8". 80% of 2" -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's slow right now, so I'll post one more. I think it was originally put up by Ian. Very funny, and sad. "wait, what're they doing, shoveling water?" LOL http://www.buzzfeed.com/danoshinsky/washington-dc-is-the-worst-during-a-snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 My HPC Percentiles Continue to Rise. 70% Chance of 12", 35% Chance of 18". HPC seems fairly bullish, 70% of 4" for my area and 40% of 8". 80% of 2" -skisheep Guys. The HPC stuff is really bullish. TBH I totally agree with their probabilities as it pertains to the area around Bob. Couple that with the HPC QPF figures....and you have a head scratcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Moderate snow and 34 in Grafton,MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Upton has it snowing all day tomorrow here, where does that come from? I thought the coastal was gone by the morning, and the trough didn't show up until the late afternoon? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The firehose has formed. Will take quite some time to get close, but it's out there http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130306&endTime=-1&duration=4 I put up a 0z rough verification of the NAM/GFS. Euro/NAM were okay, GFS horrible. It's no wonder it's so dry up here later. You can see in the water vapor last frame or two the energy digging down is tugging everything north. It's beginning, for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 those HPC numba's did bust horribly in Dc area. I do like that they are bullish. I'm interested in their QPF trends going forward if we can keep those 1.5-2.5 numbers i'd be excited. although the 1.75 plus area is all lower than 200' elevation but the gradient there is sick and shows u the potential. i mean the gradient from bos to messenger is 1.5 to 2.5 could very well happen but man it's tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 As Will said this is all pretty much per the Euro script. Check this out, 500mb at 7pm on the Euro. Like I said not perfect but darn good. Also time sensitive, you can see the rotation working down, makes me think the Euro did okay with the mini circulations it was forming later (one north one south). Timing isn't perfect but pretty reasonable http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=DOX&loop=yes The Euro and most other guidance appear to have a pretty decent handle on the synoptic evolution (with typical propagating error plus a bit added due to the anomalous nature). What is most uncertain is temps and QPF. I don't think we can deduce too much about that based on upper levels right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So disappointed for the DC folks. We've been there and may again in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The firehose has formed. Will take quite some time to get close, but it's out there http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130306&endTime=-1&duration=4 I put up a 0z rough verification of the NAM/GFS. Euro/NAM were okay, GFS horrible. It's no wonder it's so dry up here later. You can see in the water vapor last frame or two the energy digging down is tugging everything north. It's beginning, for better or worse. i cant upload that file on my computer i've been wondering are the metrics to look at....for instance ...where does fire hose form under.....i think scoter mentioned it. i also got check out that link ginxy sent me twice (who knows what it is...ginxy!) to see where the nose of that max 850 model inflow is forecast to travel over next 24 hours...that is where some say to look for highest qpf. those 850 inflow anoamlies were 4-5 STandar deviations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The firehose has formed. Will take quite some time to get close, but it's out there http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130306&endTime=-1&duration=4 I put up a 0z rough verification of the NAM/GFS. Euro/NAM were okay, GFS horrible. It's no wonder it's so dry up here later. You can see in the water vapor last frame or two the energy digging down is tugging everything north. It's beginning, for better or worse. nice link and post-is it that little piece of energy above Lake Huron the energy you are referencing? Where is the firehose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Upton just cut to less than an inch overnight. That band sitting off LI is evil, a constant reminder of what could have been... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Upton just cut to less than an inch overnight. That band sitting off LI is evil, a constant reminder of what could have been... -skisheep they are getting closer to my prediction of zero for tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 The Euro and most other guidance appear to have a pretty decent handle on the synoptic evolution (with typical propagating error plus a bit added due to the anomalous nature). What is most uncertain is temps and QPF. I don't think we can deduce too much about that based on upper levels right now. I'm probably as concerned about temps as anything else right now. Everything else as you said FTMP is just error due to the nature of the event. The GFS though does seem to be suffering from having had too much precip too far west (two blobs) and mainly missing the intensity of the band. Randy and others noted that it verified probably the worst down south, Euro the best. i cant upload that file on my computer i've been wondering are the metrics to look at....for instance ...where does fire hose form under.....i think scoter mentioned it. i also got check out that link ginxy sent me twice (who knows what it is...ginxy!) to see where the nose of that max 850 model inflow is forecast to travel over next 24 hours...that is where some say to look for highest qpf. those 850 inflow anoamlies were 4-5 STandar deviations It's already forming. The water vapor is starting to really blossom south of us, this just obscured it in the last frame but it's developing to our south. Notice the two vortmaxlets that formed and spun around the west side of the upper low. Very evident. The GFS had not a clue. It doesn't make it wrong, it just doesn't seem to have the resolution to handle that type of detail. And in this case, it probably is hurting it badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 they are getting closer to my prediction of zero for tonight... They basically pushed everything back, said that every single model busted, and that they expect snow to start after midnight. On the bright side, their new map is little changed from the old map, maybe a few tenths less in some spots, but still a nice snow. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 So disappointed for the DC folks. We've been there and may again in 24 hours. Yup. I def thought it would do better. We might be singing the same song in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Here's the Euro for 0z. Pretty excellent really. My theory on why the GFS blows inside of gametime and why the Euro struggles in the pregame is related to the degree of detail the two models seem to be capable of. In complex situations like this the Euro struggles long term trying to put all of these pieces together. the GFS is able to better resolve a storm on kind of a broader scale. As the days tick away the Euro better refines all the little features that it had previously struggled with while the GFS just doesn't ever see them at all. The result is a likely poor forecast like the GFS had this storm, JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Here they are together. Note the Euro handled the speedmax lobbing around the NE side slinging towards us, the two little lobes on the west side (maybe a little slow but also keep in mind because of the angle the drying you see is still "ahead" of the features just south of them on the WV).....everything pretty darn great. Probably a little slow in the rotation of the ULL...lol but that's pretty nitpicky and not in the realm of concern. The GFS isn't even capable of this type of detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 messenger WRT fire hose . http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/NAM/ you can see the nose of the 850 inlow is 6 S.D (WOW) just off E NJ coast right now (7pm 0z thurs) on sref guidance if you click fwd in time after selecting 850 inflow and the model of your choice.....for sref's for example you can see the nose of that anomalous 850 inflow moving NNE to just off MVY/ACK/CC from 7am to like 4pm when its at it's northern most spot... at 5 standard deviations and it keeps that nose of anomalous 850 inflow bombing mvy/ack areas from tomm am to fri am at 5 stanard deviations! now i'm not 100 %sure the firehose is / and it's movement....is correlated (METS?) with the 850 inflow nose. it appears to be! the NAM gets this nose of the 5 SD anomaly further north faster by like 1-3 am over the islands/CC and pivots this up to CC and SE mass by 7am ....it develops another little nose over boston and west around 10pm tommorrow into the overnite.. so like 8pm to 4 am or so over boston west general area n/s 20 miles or so. the GFS however go back to the 850 inflow ...the nose of the 5 SD area is well east of new england and doesn't really hit us the 18z run was closest but not that close lol i think that needs to be watch'd nam/sref's show nose of maximum 850 inflow crushing SE mass up to boston area (at times) i think this represents potential fire hose placement best it correlates to what you point out on WV GFS shows this where it is ....and going ENE and well SE of us. also the firehose will allign itself with mid level winds (will mention'd this to me) which will be east going to ene i think i'm glued to this graphic later tonite and it's updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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