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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part IV

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

The best thing about Harvey is he goes into detail even about us in CT, most TV stations are so small they only cover their neck of the woods and little else. That is why i like watching him but can not due to CT TV stations pissing and moaning about Boston stations to the FCC back in the 80s. thank God for NECN, wish they would hire Harvey

 

He's great, there's no other way of putting it.

 

 

SLP moving ESE out into the Atlantic.  All models show this.  Tonight is fringe city.  The better stuff should come tomorrow.

Yup.  Was just looking, GFS pretty woeful on the max QPF in the Delmarva...it's going to be firehose or bust kind of like it was there today where over 2" fell but not a ton on either side.

 

SIgns of differences will be evident south of us.  GFS was lame and had a huge break to our south, WV looks good as does the radar.  We should have precip knocking on the door later this evening.

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HarveyLeonardFan

HarveyLeonardFan

Posted
Posted

Harv just did more explaining in the 10 minutes he's been on air then everyone else combined in the last 2 days.  This is why he's the best and nobody around here denies that.

 

Flat out he said the heaviest snow could fall south of boston right where we all keep talking about and showed a graphic with 9.5".  He said what we already know which is it's all about dynamics.  He went through every option, every detail, etc.  We're spoiled in Boston that's what we got for years.

 

EDIT:  I should add his map is exactly what Ryan, Scott, Will, Bob, me, Jerry and a ton of others feel is the boom zone for this storm whether it's 5-9 or much more, that's where it'd happen.  Small chance closer to but west of me, small chance.

I've always been a huge fan for a lot of reasons...He's probably the best communicator in the history of the business and this is why he's the last of his generation who's still on in prime-time. His rapid rate of speech is tailor made for 2 minute weather segments.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

That looks a bit heftier than the oper. though

That's true.  But in the areas that see snow, it's a few tenths heavier at most.  So we're talking an inch or two difference.  Easily within the range of uncertainty.  And it certainly won't make or break a big storm.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

The best thing about Harvey is he goes into detail even about us in CT, most TV stations are so small they only cover their neck of the woods and little else. That is why i like watching him but can not due to CT TV stations pissing and moaning about Boston stations to the FCC back in the 80s. thank God for NECN, wish they would hire Harvey

wonder why we get both NYC and CT channels down here but you don't get RI or BOS in the eastern/NE part of the state?

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

I've always been a huge fan for a lot of reasons...He's probably the best communicator in the history of the business and this is why he's the last of his generation who's still on in prime-time. His rapid rate of speech is tailor made for 2 minute weather segments.

Agree,  between knowledge and concision,  he's a golden egg for marketers.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Yeah, it's a bump up from last nights run. It seems reasonable.

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep72084.gif

Most places increased about 10% on the mean.  I think it's reasonable too.  QPF is relatively modest, which I think is a good first guess.  It things come together, the mean QPF will prove to be too low as usual.  But I wouldn't bank on it at this point.  Easterly flow pruducing the showery precip currently will continue to enhance precip.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/12zggemp72072.gif

 

.5 - 1.5" spread over 48 hours with marginal temps and 8:1 means everyone crushed?

Sad how your standards have plummited. 

You've gone way way overboard on this marginal temp thing. it's snowing to the coast now..Tomorrow nite into Friday is when the meat of the storm roars..plenty cold right to the water

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Most places increased about 10% on the mean.  I think it's reasonable too.  QPF is relatively modest, which I think is a good first guess.  It things come together, the mean QPF will prove to be too low as usual.  But I wouldn't bank on it at this point.  Easterly flow pruducing the showery precip currently will continue to enhance precip.

Moving sE? did you check

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Could you check the meso link and tell me the surface Lp is moving SE thanks

Well currently and for the next several hours movement looks east.  Earlier it pinwheeled SE after stall and capture.  What's the difference?  All guidance clearly moves this well south of the area.

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bboughton

bboughton

Posted
Posted

From Noyes:

 

 

  Amazing - the current "predictability" of the jet stream pattern over New England tomorrow (the governing Westerly wind pattern at about 25,000 feet in altitude) is 20-30%. That's amazingly low for 24 hours out, and means the most agreed upon solution for the jet stream pattern above us Thursday finds only 20-30% agreement. It always amazes me the amount of time we struggle with nailing down rain/snow line, elevation differences, and exact amount variances, only to step back and realize the most likely solution of the pattern aloft, let along nuances on the ground, is only 20-30% certain! No complaints, it's what we meteorologists signed up for...but still astounding and humbling to consider how many unknowns are inherent in the process. In fact, it's inherent unknowns that keep my profession humbling. Even when you nail the forecast, you (should) walk away & ask: "Did I? Or did I just get really lucky?" Either works.
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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

You've gone way way overboard on this marginal temp thing. it's snowing to the coast now..Tomorrow nite into Friday is when the meat of the storm roars..plenty cold right to the water

It's in the mid and upper 30s along the coast.  We have strong surface winds with an easterly component.  There is minimal cold or dry air drainage.  Everything about this storms suggests warm surface temps.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Kind of a general response to all.

 

No model was close to perfect as we approach 0z.  Unless the low and precip dive S off the Delmarva the Euro was to far south.  The NAM at 18z looks decent through 3-6 hours.  Both in terms of where the precip is and the low.  Meaningless though because the NAM could be perfect inside of 12 hours and totally fall apart and always does.

 

GFS wasn't terrible but it was far too wet to the west, and not nearly wet enough in the Delmarva.

 

Net result is I think we see precip arriving earlier than the Euro predicted.  Difficult forecast.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Gravity wave!

 

 

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSPECIAL MARINE WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA550 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...  CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA...  CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK VA TO CAPE HENRY VA INCLUDING THE  CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL...* UNTIL 715 PM EST* AT 542 PM EST...MARINE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATED DANGEROUSWINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS FROM CHESAPEAKE LIGHT TOWER TO JAMESRIVER BRIDGE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 90 MINUTESAS A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE IS EXPERIENCED ON THE BAY.* THESE STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR...  CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK VA TO CAPE HENRY VA  INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...MARINERS CAN EXPECT DANGEROUS WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...HIGHWAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEKSAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS.
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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

can't speak for the slp on this loop, thou doesn't appear ESE that's for sure

 

but that ull is not heading N of E at all for now.  looks like ESE last few frames  (now off nc/va border)

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Gravity wave!

 

 

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSPECIAL MARINE WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA550 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...  CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA...  CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK VA TO CAPE HENRY VA INCLUDING THE  CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL...* UNTIL 715 PM EST* AT 542 PM EST...MARINE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATED DANGEROUSWINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS FROM CHESAPEAKE LIGHT TOWER TO JAMESRIVER BRIDGE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 90 MINUTESAS A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE IS EXPERIENCED ON THE BAY.* THESE STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR...  CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK VA TO CAPE HENRY VA  INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...MARINERS CAN EXPECT DANGEROUS WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...HIGHWAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEKSAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS.

 

Coincided with the micro spiral on the west side of the ULL, check it out ran right down the bridge!

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130306&endTime=-1&duration=4

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

I'm totally confused, 1/2 the NYC forum is calling bust, the other 1/2 is saying it's just not time yet and everything is on schedule, and models have anywhere from nothing to 6" tonight, and tomorrow 2" to 8" or so, I'm just so confused... It's fun to track, that's for sure! Still think we see 1-3" here tonight, that's what Upton has, and I have no reason to think that they're wrong, everything seems to support that right now... Looks like it really dosen't stop snowing until friday afternoon, gets lighter tomorrow, but dosen't shut off entirely until the trough comes in tomorrow afternoon when it gets heavier again.

 

-skisheep

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

You've gone way way overboard on this marginal temp thing. it's snowing to the coast now..Tomorrow nite into Friday is when the meat of the storm roars..plenty cold right to the water

rev temps are marginal

 

along the CP it's snowing.....and 850's and 925's moderate from here on out on models .  

 

it's one thing to snow and it's another to accumulate. if we get rates tonite or tommorrow nite it accumulates thou, i don't see that shield S of long island moving up.

 

look at WV it's a spinning top off of VA coast....i'm not sure what process is gonna drive the mod-hvy bands that harv speaks of....but i have faith in him.

 

the stuff over e ma appears showery in nature but  a bit steadier looking over SE mass perhaps this area becomes enhanced as nite goes on and lifts n and Nw a bit

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