jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 and thats @ 4am so thats 1-2 in per hour stuff that stix If there's one positive to this is that so far the heaviest of this should happen at night with no worries about solar input. I would still wait until late tonight and the 0z suite before really jumping in. This is quite the convoluted setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 By 11 am tomorrow certainty will be in the 75% range & Im beginning to think there will be smiles all around as long as expectations are realistic. Ill be VERY happy with 6-10 Hr 63 is beautiful. Man would be nice. Still a lot of time ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SV maps are 4-8 for city west. 2-4 central jersey. Nw jersey 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I like this run of the GFS and I think it's pretty close to what reality will be. It's about half of the QPF that the NAM showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 HR 42 means 1PM Wednesday? Hr 48 is 1pm Wed (18z = 1pm EST). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Still hard to believe the Euro could be this late joining the party but I assume its possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The 18z GFS is 6-12" of snow for most of northern NJ. More out towards Warren County, a bit less towards the city. Long Island gets nothing. Most now is 40-60 miles directly up the Thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Continues at hour 66. This run is colder. That's what crazy dynamics and lift does for you. If we have the light-mod stratiform stuff much of it will likely be slop. This run still has to QPF maxes over N VA and New England but this does a good job at filling in the sucker hole it had in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Mt. Holly AFD: THE GREATER CONCERN IS FOR ACCUMULATIVE WET SNOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHTAND THURSDAY MORNING IF THERE IS ANY BACKLASH. ITS EARLY TO BECONFIDENT ON BACKLASH SNOW... BUT DECENT BANDING WILL BE ON THENORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SLOW MOVING CYCLONE WITHA BENT BACK THERMAL MID LEVEL FEATURE. THIS WOULD BE A CSI BANDINGFEATURE RELATED TO MID LEVEL FGEN...USUALLY FOUND NEAR THE SOUTHEDGE OF THE COMMA SHIELD. SO IF ANY PORTION OF OUR AREA RECEIVES6 INCHES OF WET SNOW...NOT ONLY WOULD IT BE A TRAVEL AND REMOVALHAZARD BUT ALSO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES. FAR TOOEARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR BUT ITS NOT OUT OFTHE QUESTION.AS FAR THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE WAS VERY LITTLE ENERGY POURED INTO THE FCST GRIDS BEYOND THURSDAY...RELYINGALMOST SOLELY ON THE 15Z/4 HPC GRIDDED FORECAST GUIDANCE.TUESDAY NIGHT...BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE AND BLENDED THE 09Z SREFAND 12Z NCEP MOS FOR TIS FORECAST. OF NOTE...SEPARATE FROM THE PRIMARYSTORM PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS A BIT OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST FORTHE POCONOS AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AT DAWN TUESDAY.I DIDNT HAVE TIME TO IDENTIFY THE CAUSE BUT IT COULD MEAN A HALFINCH OF SNOWFALL STICKING TO EVERYTHING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN UPTHERE.WEDNESDAY...12Z NCEP MOS BLENDED WITH THE 09Z SREF POPS. THE TEMPFORECAST WAS BLENDED DOWN FROM GUIDANCE USING THE COLDER 12Z NAMMOS TEMPS. PYTPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOWEST 750 TO 1000 FEETOF TEMPERATURE PROFILE. MESSY AND DIFFICULT TO ASSIGN REALISTICNUMBERS BUT WE DID OUR BEST. I HAD TO ENHANCE THE BOS SNOW TOTALTOOL FOR OUR WATCH AREA BUT FELT THERE WAS TOO MUCH DOWNSIDE RISKTO NOT HAVING OUR FOOT IN THE DOOR WITH A WATCH THERE.GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...HIGHER ALONG THECOAST.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BANDING SIGNATURE FOR NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE....BASICALLYI95 EASTWARD. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW AND EXPECTINGHAZARDOUS TRAVEL. TIMING OF THE DETAILS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT ROADTREATMENTS OR PLOWING APPEARS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Still hard to believe the Euro could be this late joining the party but I assume its possible the op had over .5 and the ensembles had close to 1.0 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18Z Total Precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hate when people just assume that the NAM has too much precip because it's the NAM. It has the most precip because it puts the heaviest precip over our area. It also has the support of several GEFS and SREF members and to an extent the Euro ensemble and GFS op. I love when people pick which model to use because of how much snow it says we're going to get...its just funny to watch people waffle back and forth between models to make it look better, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I like this run of the GFS and I think it's pretty close to what reality will be. It's about half of the QPF that the NAM showed. Hats off to you sir. You've been saying the same thing for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I was surprised when Walt Drag said that the Euro was underperforming in the short range (0-5 days out). This would be one of its greatest busts that I can remember in recent time. Still hard to believe the Euro could be this late joining the party but I assume its possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The BL is very close for me on this run. The H925 is right as freezing and H95 is slightly above freezing at HR 60. GFS might not be picking up on the dynamical cooling and it's notorious for having a slightly warmer BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The mid/upper level centers are stacked on each other by 45 hr. If you're confident about this working out, you're being very closed minded. This entire thing can go wrong in 50 different ways. I agree with Earthlight. Even though I have been one of the only bullish people on this storm throughout the last 6 days (along with Storm at Sea, and Snow 88), there are still some details that need cementing and the variants will have to be just perfect to work out. That being said I still have my money on a mecs. - I would really like the Euro to show a similar solution to the GFS tonight to be very confident. - I do think temps will be an issue but as long as we get under the heavy precip the dynamic coiling should prevail especially with most of it falling overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Soundings off of the plymouth state website show big time rain for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Soundings off of the plymouth state website show big time rain for Long Island. Sure is... H95 above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The 18z GFS is 6-12" of snow for most of northern NJ. More out towards Warren County, a bit less towards the city. Long Island gets nothing. Most now is 40-60 miles directly up the Thruway. Really? LI nothing? It actually gets the most precip in the area, but no snow I guess. I think that will change though. A cold trend is coming, and storms this year have been colder than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Would like to see a more organized on the gfs but its getting gradually better, hopefully we have the euro on our side tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Any word on the Euro Control run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sure is... H95 above freezing I'm just to the west of that blue line on LI, does that mean snow? Qpf is great on LI just temps are marginal at best. Dynamic cooling and the gfs warm bias will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Soundings off of the plymouth state website show big time rain for Long Island. if that is going to be the case, lets go Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Any word on the Euro Control run? Ji mentioned it was a good hit for SNE....Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS verbatim is mostly rain for the island in sure... It does have a warm bias in the BL though which needs to be addressed, in addition when the CCB kicks in as long as the precip is heavy enough even LI should get into the action I'd assume... I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's a March storm...much more instability to play with; more subtle features. There will be some very intense banding with this system and probably some gnashing of teeth with a very sharp cutoff. I think the models are being overly optimistic for the western extent of precip. Notably, the 18z GFS is too close to the coast...it's done this in the past during 18z runs and significant storms. Would like to see a more organized on the gfs but its getting gradually better, hopefully we have the euro on our side tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Still hard to believe the Euro could be this late joining the party but I assume its possible Boxing Day storm...famous GFS initialization error storm...EURO didn't hope on board until the 00z run the day b4 the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I knew this was going to happen. When we get it.. then is a ptype issue. I hope im safe here in ne nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yup. 12/26/10 and 1/27/11 12/19/09 and 2/10/10...happens all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm just to the west of that blue line on LI, does that mean snow? Qpf is great on LI just temps are marginal at best. Dynamic cooling and the gfs warm bias will help The GFS doesn't have a warm bias, it has a cool bias, but from what I've seen from past storms this winter was that the GFS has a warm bias in the BL a lot of the time. Being west of the blue line will help, but doesn't mean you're 100% snow, it could rain if you're west of the blue line, it can snow if you're east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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