Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM is giving us the room we need when the rates are there before the obvious snow as it departs. That window was looking much scarier with 0-6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hour 30 is much better for DMV this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 my thoughts too...good rates when things start to flirt with the 950mb freezing line Good rates equal more quickly cooling of the column which might kick thoughts of rain out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the NAM's right, basically yes. Maybe a little sprinkle (and virga) to moisten up the boundary layer to start, but snow for all intents and purposes. But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 this might be the best run since 2009-10. This should outdo the Commutergedden storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 After 18z the 950mb 0C line starts retreating/expanding S/Eward and the little bubble of 975mb sub-freezing grows a bit. Tomorrow afternoon will be VERY fun if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SIM radar through 30 is just sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 i mean, this is great and all, but NAM usually has a cold bias if I remember correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure the NAM can be trusted as much as, or more than the GFS and Euro at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? if the NAM cant be trusted 12 hours before the storm starts......whats the purpose of it? I know its wheel house is 3 hours after the storm is over but maybe this one time we can trust it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? Yes, this would be when the nam is best. Mesoscale features defined better than globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We're not going to know for sure until it starts coming down. I'd hate to be the guys having to make a forecast or deciding on a warning for DC and NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? i think you have to weigh the fact a model like the NAM has higher resolution (spatially and vertically) vs. some of its known biases....maybe don't trust its QPF but i'd definitely consider its thermal profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? NAM and GFS were within 1C or so anyway below 850mb. We're almost at the "noise" level as it is. I'd certainly like to see the GFS move a little colder as well, but the Euro was cold (at 850mb at least) and when you're within ~18-24 hours of precip start I wouldn't be discounting the NAM "because it's the NAM". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We're not going to know for sure until it starts coming down. I'd hate to be the guys having to make a forecast or deciding on a warning for DC and NOVA. lol..are you kidding? A warning for NOVA is a guarantee....NOVA includes Fairfax and Loudoun Counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i mean, this is great and all, but NAM usually has a cold bias if I remember correctly? it seems to run a little cold...but it's still at this point a warm outlier compared to all the other globals other than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 But it's the NAM, can we actually trust it? Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 if the NAM cant be trusted 12 hours before the storm starts......whats the purpose of it? I know its wheel house is 3 hours after the storm is over but maybe this one time we can trust it Conversation has poisoned people. Nothing is nearly as black an white as portrayed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i mean, this is great and all, but NAM usually has a cold bias if I remember correctly? I think it overdoes it more in CAD situations, this one is more stratiform air mass. It's a model though and none should be taken as ground truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol..are you kidding? A warning for NOVA is a guarantee....NOVA includes Fairfax and Loudoun Counties Yeah and they're also sitting on the edge of a few runs showing a lot of rain and some showing a lot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sigh It's a legitimate question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i think you have to weigh the fact a model like the NAM has higher resolution (spatially and vertically) vs. some of its known biases....maybe don't trust its QPF but i'd definitely consider its thermal profiles Yes but hasn't the NAM and the GFS basically been the same with the QPF outputs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's a legitimate question. I dunno. People have gone off the dumb end with bashin the nam lately. Kinda silly really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 between 1 and 7 tomorrow, we get more snow than we have seen combined 25 months:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still dumping at midnight Thursday. 30 hour event on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's a legitimate question. It is but the nam has some history (including recent) here. We're very close in now. If it was the gfs cold and the nam warm I would be more concerned. I think everybody would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah and they're also sitting on the edge of a few runs showing a lot of rain and some showing a lot of snow I think it's unlikely that DC gets less than a 3-6" event (or any range that averages <5" which is warning criteria), so yeah I'd go with a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Conversation has poisoned people. Nothing is nearly as black an white as portrayed here. She asked a legitimate question...I knew what she meant. NAM had some known biases and people piss on it so much, we've forgetten what range it could actually be useful in. I think most know you can't take a model verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol..are you kidding? A warning for NOVA is a guarantee....NOVA includes Fairfax and Loudoun Counties and Loudoun already has a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I dunno. People have gone off the dumb end with bashin the nam lately. Kinda silly really. Oh, ok. See my other reply to you. That's why I'm confused...people piss on the NAM so much, I honestly forgotten the range, if any, it's supposed to be good with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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