SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This was a massive shift of 500 miles at least....one has to be a bit nervous as I noted hours ago...the NYC metro might get too much of what it asked for....north shift I don't think so, I think it has a better chance of being too far SE, the block is very strong. I really think the models ingested some new information rather than just made a sudden massive shift. Just how different the 0z gfs looked from the 12z gfs early on is a good example of possibly new data added in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This was a massive shift of 500 miles at least....one has to be a bit nervous as I noted hours ago...the NYC metro might get too much of what it asked for....north shift If the block weakens move as time moves on, this has a chance of coming even further north. It will all depend on how strong the blocking is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 If the block weakens move as time moves on, this has a chance of coming even further north. It will all depend on how strong the blocking is. My concern is P-Type issues. The reality of this is that the Block may be a bit too weak to keep the storm offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I don't think so, I think it has a better chance of being too far SE, the block is very strong. I really think the models ingested some new information rather than just made a sudden massive shift. Just how different the 0z gfs looked from the 12z gfs early on is a good example of possibly new data added in. I agree that that is still the main concern. But I could see how too far north could become an issue. That being said, the block isn't really weaker per-se...it's just oriented further east. That allows the block to connect with the SE ridge, and forced the confluence further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 last nights euro run had an early phase yet the block was so strong and positioned poorly it could never gain latitude. tonights run is ideal obv. but if the block continues to change its orientation with 12z fri we will need a later phase. pattern is awesome but we are pulling strings here to get the right combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 My concern is P-Type issues. The reality of this is that the Block may be a bit too weak to keep the storm offshore. I wouldn't go nearly that far. This block is not just going to disappear. Suppression is still the main issue, IMO. But theoretically, this could climb further north, yes. The block is still very much prevalent. The main change is the position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's like rolling the dice right now, maybe we'll hit big or maybe we'll have to wait until next winter, it's not in our control. I will not be disappointed if we miss out probably because to me March is more of a spring month and that's what I'm looking toward rather than winter. We had two good storms this winter or shall we say fall/winter so at least I'm not too disappointed like in 2011-2012. We'll see what happens I guess but I urge everyone to not get too angry or too invested in this right now. Let things play out, if we see a consensus of a major hit within 2-3 days or so then I don't blame anyone from becoming invested but not right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Remember, the GFS made the exact same change in position with the block, and it was still too far SE with the storm. But of course, that helped the storm climb much further north than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro ensemble mean look great. The entire area is in the 0.1" to 0.25" precip contour at 138, 144, and 150 hours, and is grazed by the 0.1" contour at 132 and 156 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro ensemble mean look great. The entire area is in the 0.1" to 0.25" precip contour at 138, 144, and 150 hours, and is grazed by the 0.1" contour at 132 and 156 hours. Nice, Hows the control run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Nice, Hows the control run? Browse up a handful of posts a take a look or I could just tell you it's a weather porn bomb ! Now have to deal with the Rollercoaster and the Ups and Downs of Model Tracking the next 5 or 6 days. I think one thing is becoming clear this will be a big if Not a huge storm all depends on blocking, track and temps to see who gets what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Browse up a handful of posts a take a look or I could just tell you it's a weather porn bomb ! Now have to deal with the Rollercoaster and the Ups and Downs of Model Tracking the next 5 or 6 days. I think one thing is becoming clear this will be a big if Not a huge storm all depends on blocking, track and temps to see who gets what. No one has talked about the control run in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Nice, Hows the control run? I actually don't have access to it. Or if I do, I don't know that I do. I think it's only an Accuweather Pro thing, but I get my Euro info via different sources that don't have the Euro control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I actually don't have access to it. Or if I do, I don't know that I do. I think it's only an Accuweather Pro thing, but I get my Euro info via different sources that don't have the Euro control run. Yea same here, only a few people have access to it that post on here. I feel it is usually the best sign as to what it will do in its next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I actually don't have access to it. Or if I do, I don't know that I do. I think it's only an Accuweather Pro thing, but I get my Euro info via different sources that don't have the Euro control run. Yea I think only accuweather pro has it, i think it is much lower resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Much further north and west. It hooks up into the coast this run. 0z - 06z comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 6z GFS is jumping in too. Close to smoking us but still plenty of precip back in the area at 144 and 147 and still going. Will be a fun few days of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Edit. It hooks in and smokes us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Wow Crazy run, it just sits there then. - 850s are off shore but too close for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Must further north and west. It hooks up into the coast this run. Retrograding bomb on the 6z GFS, the trends of this coming north can't be denied. We need to be extremely careful here, a 500 mile jump by the 0z Euro is quite alarming. One thing that looks certain is there will be quite a storm along the eastern seaboard next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Snowfall totals seem low off of instantweathermaps versus the frame by frame look. I'm assuming BL issues and lower ratios but too soon for that. Lots of consensus forming. What a block that showed. It gets to the VA shore and just can't go anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Snowfall totals seem low off of instantweathermaps versus the frame by frame look. I'm assuming BL issues and lower ratios but too soon for that. Lots of consensus forming. What a block that showed. It gets to the VA shore and just can't go anywhere. Yea way too soon but the fact that the 850s are so far from the center has me worried. If it does track closer and closer we might have problems. - But right now all the main models are on board for a big storm on the coast next week. At least we have 5 fun days of forecasting. - I also think this storm will be easier to forecast by the models due to the lack of a prior storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Snowfall totals seem low off of instantweathermaps versus the frame by frame look. I'm assuming BL issues and lower ratios but too soon for that. Lots of consensus forming. What a block that showed. It gets to the VA shore and just can't go anywhere. The airmass being depicted for the storm is marginal and that's why the snow maps look like they do. Blocking is superb, but I think many of us are going to need to rely on the system bombing (also being progged) and the dynamic cooling process associated with that, to really cash in with snow. Just sayin'.....It's an exciting looking storm with tons of potential, but I don't think all of us should be expecting feet of snow right now. Good news is that it appears a major storm is coming.....keep those fingers, toes and any other body parts you can think of crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The temperatures could certainly be a concern, I mean it is March after all, that's just reality but the block looks very pronounced and I don't think it will come to close to the coast or too far north for us to have any major issues, at least as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The temperatures could certainly be a concern, I mean it is March after all, that's just reality but the block looks very pronounced and I don't think it will come to close to the coast or too far north for us to have any major issues, at least as of now. Yea maybe at 850s, but surface might be a problem as depicted now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Control run of the European model is just southeast of operational run with the storm and precip shield. It would be a nice hit throughout our area. .75-2.00 from northwest to southeast. NAVGEM has gone southeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Snowfall totals seem low off of instantweathermaps versus the frame by frame look. I'm assuming BL issues and lower ratios but too soon for that. Lots of consensus forming. What a block that showed. It gets to the VA shore and just can't go anywhere. Per soundings, the storm starts as rain then ends as wet snow. Things can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 KEWR soundings Don? Per soundings, the storm starts as rain then ends as wet snow. Things can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Anyone notice that NYC slp stays near normal at 1012mb but surface winds average 25mph and 925-850mb are a whopping 70mph. Isobars are really bunched in nw quadrant of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Anyone notice that NYC slp stays near normal at 1012mb but surface winds average 25mph and 925-850mb are a whopping 70mph. Isobars are really bunched in nw quadrant of storm. Pretty hefty pressure gradient as per Euro.....very impressive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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