Potential Winter Storm March 6-7

[Dsnowx53]

The Pac vort just comes in a little too fast for my liking. The northern stream/block timing is a little off on this run...hopefully its not a trend but it has been all year. You can see the Pac vort coming ashore at 60 hours and it just screams through the CONUS. The ridge builds out west and the Pac vort slides southeast underneath the northern stream stuff...until it phases offshore. The mean trough has been just slightly too far east for us this year and this would fit perfectly.

 

 

Certainly a concern: the shortwave just moves so quickly that the northern stream won't even have time to catch up with it until it's too late.

 

But considering how much everything else improved, this was a great run in my eyes. Hopefully it's a trend and not a blip. Perhaps the new data that NCEP ingested into the models made a difference tonight. 

[leemhoc]

Boy if it phased and went a bit more north Long Island would get creamed. Look at some of the 24 hour moisture south of LI. Biggest amount is 7.00 of qpf!

[user13]

Yea much improved run, Hopefully the GEFS will continue the trend.

[Superstorm93]

This would probably be historic if it could phase sooner. 

 

The amount of precip this has to work with is insane. 

 

[CooL]

The Pac vort just comes in a little too fast for my liking. The northern stream/block timing is a little off on this run...hopefully its not a trend but it has been all year. You can see the Pac vort coming ashore at 60 hours and it just screams through the CONUS. The ridge builds out west and the Pac vort slides southeast underneath the northern stream stuff...until it phases offshore. The mean trough has been just slightly too far east for us this year and this would fit perfectly.

 

Have we had this type of block with any of the storms this year?

[tcutter]

Have we had this type of block with any of the storms this year?

I had the same thought

[earthlight]

Have we had this type of block with any of the storms this year?

 

The block has very little impact on the speed of the flow over the Central US before it builds in. In addition, look at the orientation of the 500mb height field on the GFS at hour 84. The confluent flow over the East Coast is forcing the shortwave to track from NW to SE.

 

So regardless of the phase, the entire thing is starting off way too far south and east for my liking if the models are correct.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_0z/f84.gif

[ace0927]

A high pressure system that high vs a bombing low would yield a ridiculous pressure gradient which would probably produce winds that would rival Boxing Day.

its way to far away too have that type of affect

[CooL]

The block has very little impact on the speed of the flow over the Central US before it builds in. In addition, look at the orientation of the 500mb height field on the GFS at hour 84. The confluent flow over the East Coast is forcing the shortwave to track from NW to SE.

 

So regardless of the phase, the entire thing is starting off way too far south and east for my liking if the models are correct.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_0z/f84.gif

 

i see what you're saying. But don't you think that if the northern stream phased quicker it would have pumped heights more off the EC..I think that would have tugged this storm much closer to the mid atlantic coast if that happened

[earthlight]

i see what you're saying. But don't you think that if the northern stream phased quicker it would have pumped heights more off the EC..I think that would have tugged this storm much closer to the mid atlantic coast if that happened

 

Yes. But what mechanism is going to force the northern stream to phase quicker? The block would need to build in faster, which also would suppress the height field. The only way this works is if the Euro is correct from a night or two ago, when it broke off the Northern Stream ULL piece...but kept it farther south over the Great Lakes so the phase could occur earlier.

[SnoSki14]

Yes. But what mechanism is going to force the northern stream to phase quicker? The block would need to build in faster, which also would suppress the height field. The only way this works is if the Euro is correct from a night or two ago, when it broke off the Northern Stream ULL piece...but kept it farther south over the Great Lakes so the phase could occur earlier.

 

So you're saying we have no shot basically? 

[CooL]

Yes. But what mechanism is going to force the northern stream to phase quicker? The block would need to build in faster, which also would suppress the height field. The only way this works is if the Euro is correct from a night or two ago, when it broke off the Northern Stream ULL piece...but kept it farther south over the Great Lakes so the phase could occur earlier.

 

With the ULL over the northeast completely gone now, as opposed to 18z where it just sat there, the block would connect with the SE ridge and force an earlier phase and negative tilt. I really think if there were minor tweaks this run would have sent everyone into a frenzy..Just look how close it gets even with a sloppy late phase

[Dsnowx53]

Yes. But what mechanism is going to force the northern stream to phase quicker? The block would need to build in faster, which also would suppress the height field. The only way this works is if the Euro is correct from a night or two ago, when it broke off the Northern Stream ULL piece...but kept it farther south over the Great Lakes so the phase could occur earlier.

 

 

Good point. However, I think we can get away with just the subtle adjustment to the block that would allow the northern stream piece to drop in without compromising the height field to the point where we can't recover. 

[Dsnowx53]

With the ULL over the northeast completely gone now, as opposed to 18z where it just sat there, the block would connect with the SE ridge and force an earlier phase and negative tilt. I really think if there were minor tweaks this run would have sent everyone into a frenzy..Just look how close it gets even with a sloppy late phase

 

 

The block connecting with the SE ridge also means that we can certainly afford a later phase, as our southern stream storm would actually be able to amplify a bit, slow down, and not scoot off to the east right away. This is how the "hook back" scenario almost happened. You don't get the hook back scenario unless the block is in the position it's modeled.

[atownwxwatcher]

GGEM looks like the ECM from its prior runs..Has a mid atlantic monster!

[user13]

P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

GGEM looks like the ECM from its prior runs..Has a mid atlantic monster!

Good to see from the Canadian. Has anyone noticed any performance differences in it since the update last month?

[Storm At Sea]

I actually think the Canadian is showing the likely outcome. GFS is notorious for being terrible dealing with northern stream phasing situations. If this thing cranks like the Euro has been showing, WAA is going to going crazy and heights are going to get pumped. Honestly, it wouldn't shock me to see a situation that is similar to the Jan. 2000 event where you get a monster band move west, drop 5-10 inches of snow, and then stall over E PA and MD. I think it's ludicrous to even joke about a NC or S VA snowstorm. If I had a dollar that "someone" hyped up an event such as that and it headed way NW...well I probably could probably retire. I suspect the Euro tonight is going to be real amped.

[SnoSki14]

Would def love to see the Euro bite back with this tonight, it's accuracy starts to improve in this range. 

[user13]

I actually think the Canadian is showing the likely outcome. GFS is notorious for being terrible dealing with northern stream phasing situations. If this thing cranks like the Euro has been showing, WAA is going to going crazy and heights are going to get pumped. Honestly, it wouldn't shock me to see a situation that is similar to the Jan. 2000 event where you get a monster band move west, drop 5-10 inches of snow, and then stall over E PA and MD. I think it's ludicrous to even joke about a NC or S VA snowstorm. If I had a dollar that "someone" hyped up an event such as that and it headed way NW...well I probably could probably retire. I suspect the Euro tonight is going to be real amped.

Yes very interested in what the Euro shows. With the trend of the GFS and GGM, if the Euro shows a good event we may be in business.

[Weathergun]

So far we seeing the ULL lift out and block connecting more to the SE Ridge, models tonight. A good sign that this will be able come further north. Whether it all comes together perfectly or ideal for a big snowstorm, isn't that important right now.

[user13]

Also there are no major storms over the US until this storm comes through. In my observations this should help the models be more accurate with this storm.

[Storm At Sea]

I think we have to be careful what we wish for. Just like we can't rely on a 6 day snowstorm, we can't rely on a 6 day miss. That being said, with such an enormous block, this system could take a Sandy track.

So far we seeing the ULL lift out and block connecting more to the SE Ridge, models tonight. A good sign that this will be able come further north. Whether it all comes together perfectly or ideal for a big snowstorm, isn't that important right now.

[David-LI]

Isn't the energy still over the pacific ocean? Don't models hand storms better once they enter the continental US? 

[Chaser25973]

Who's doing the pxp?

[Storm At Sea]

Yes. The S/W won't be over Seattle until 84 hrs from this morning's 6z model run ( you do the math, I'm too tired to).

Isn't the energy still over the pacific ocean? Don't models hand storms better once they enter the continental US? 

[chademer07]

No updates from anyone? I've checked several sub forums with no luck...

[Dsnowx53]

The block is appearing to hook up with the SE ridge at 114 hours. Large closed 500mb low in the middle of the country. There wasn't really a defined northern stream that phased with this, but this has the appearances of the GGEM solution so far. 

[Dsnowx53]

Surface low in NE Tennessee at 120 hours. 

[Dsnowx53]

Because of the block's shifted orientation, the confluence is further east, and the heights are rising along the EC. This doesn't look too bad so far. 

[Dsnowx53]

This now has a miller B look. 1012 surface low in southern Ohio with another 1012 surface low in South Carolina with moderate precipitation in association with it.