harrisale Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Here in Toronto that's a tighter lake shore gradient here than I've seen on those maps. I'm guessing the NAM's gotten a little warmer. Off to check soundings. Been a nailbiter for YYZ for a while with this storm. Tons of QPF and a slight tick up or down in temps will make a real difference, particularly for areas closer to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 LAF thermals are obviously scorching something fierce...but dynamic cooling, with quite the six hour slug, is fairly neat. Still all rain, but anyway... A better look here: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KLAF.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Looks like >1.00" liquid from about rt 47 on eastward in northern IL.We are about a block west of 47. We might have to hold you to that Snowpack stuck around for the most part today. A few patches of grass at the park where blowing was greater last week, and just a bit of mud around the outfield clay/pea gravel drainways during our sunset walk. But enough snow elsewhere to get the kicks clean before getting back to the car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Is it me or does the current SLP look well east of the HPC predictions? Looks like the center is around the Arkansas/Louisiana/Mississippi border region, compared to the predicted center on the other side of Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 And here's your problem. ugh. How does it look for Hamilton from there on...I'm west end so I'm a decent bit away from the lake up in the escarpment...sorry bout the IMBY question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Is it me or does the current SLP look well east of the HPC predictions? Looks like the center is around the Arkansas/Louisiana/Mississippi border region, compared to the predicted center on the other side of Arkansas Yes, however. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39496-february-25-27-winter-storm-part-2/?p=2155919 It could end up further NW so being further E isnt nec. a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 skilling 3-7 with most by the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 RPM looks like it is 'ed up! Will get a screen shot when it comes up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 How does it look for Hamilton from there on...I'm west end so I'm a decent bit away from the lake up in the escarpment...sorry bout the IMBY question. On our weather blog we've got a bunch of canadians commenting so you may get a bit more info there. I've got Hamilton getting around a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 A bit late but.. One oddity i am noticing with this system. Typically the ensemble mean is a bit drier especially in the case of the euro but not so with this system. Also they keep getting wetter which ofcourse i have expected. 12z euro ensembles actually now have a 1inch + from about Josh/far se MI on se into Ohio and a spot over alek backyard. The .75+ line has now moved from my backyard up towards Grand Rapids and runs to Bay City.00z had it cutting through the northside of Chicago while the 12z now has it up to near Racine. While the .50+ line has move up to just south of Sheboygan and gets close to Madison. Surface/UL tracks unchanged. Oh and there is now a spot of 1.25+ showing over top of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 How does it look for Hamilton from there on...I'm west end so I'm a decent bit away from the lake up in the escarpment...sorry bout the IMBY question. 6 hours of rain to start then a switch to snow around 5z with snow the rest of the way. This is by far the warmest NAM run we've seen. Even the runs where it was plowing the sfc low into Michigan weren't this warm. So I'm not conceding defeat yet by any means but it's a little disconcerting just 24 hours out to see these types of discrepancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 On our weather blog we've got a bunch of canadians commenting so you may get a bit more info there. I've got Hamilton getting around a foot Thanks, will check that out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 6 hours of rain to start then a switch to snow around 5z with snow the rest of the way. This is by far the warmest NAM run we've seen. Even the runs where it was plowing the sfc low into Michigan weren't this warm. So I'm not conceding defeat yet by any means but it's a little disconcerting just 24 hours out to see these types of discrepancies. If the GFS comes in like prior runs then i will toss the NAM in the garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 0z 4km NAM clown map. Pure entertainment only. At least a foot for MKE. Same for the near western and northern suburbs of Chicago...complete with sucker hole. Purple starts the 6" amounts...and then add 2" for each shade thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Those snowfall maps are really low resolution so I wouldn't read too much into it, but a slightly warmer solution would jibe with it being further north with the sfc low. Being in Vaughan though, I wouldn't worry. Probably close to if not in the sweet spot. Canuck, what are you thinking for my region? Close to the sweet spot as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 A bit late but.. One oddity i am noticing with this system. Typically the ensemble mean is a bit drier especially in the case of the euro but not so with this system. Also they keep getting wetter which ofcourse i have expected. 12z euro ensembles actually now have a 1inch + from about Josh/far se MI on se into Ohio and a spot over alek backyard. The .75+ line has now moved from my backyard up towards Grand Rapids and runs to Bay City.00z had it cutting through the northside of Chicago while the 12z now has it up to near Racine. While the .50+ line has move up to just south of Sheboygan and gets close to Madison. Surface/UL tracks unchanged. Oh and there is now a spot of 1.25+ showing over top of Toronto. That is a crazy juicy ensemble mean, not sure if I buy it, but it has to be at least taking into account lake enhancement, because it is hard to fathom that much moisture making it this far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If the GFS comes in like prior runs then i will toss the NAM in the garbage Right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yes, however. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39496-february-25-27-winter-storm-part-2/?p=2155919 It could end up further NW so being further E isnt nec. a good thing. Eh we'll see. It will weaken a bit as it moves north, as it weakens obviously this will go a little farther easterly so it may very well be east of even current predictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Have been watching these models for 7-8 yrs or so. Even when in now casting mode have seen the low pressure center be 100 km north or south. This system is very interesting as we could get good dumping but more than likely just a few inches of slop. Very tough to make a call on this system more than any. Hope my call this morning for Toronto to get 3 inches slush even verifies..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Hope my call this morning for Toronto to get 3 inches slush even verifies..... Don't be so pessimistic you pessimist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Right on. No stopping tossing the GFS here. Make a run for generators, MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 850 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013 UPDATE QUICK NOTE THAT SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM IS DEEPER WITH STRONGER LOW AND FASTER LOW LEVEL JET (GREATER FORCING INTO COLD CONVEYOR BELT OR WARP AROUND MOISTURE THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS) WHICH THE 00Z NAM IS CORRECTLY TRENDING TOWARD. GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PROBABLY BE UPPED BY A INCH OR TWO MOST LOCATIONS. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL MAKE FINAL DECISIONS. SO..NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED BUT THIS IS AN INFORMATIONAL HEADS UP ON WHAT THE DATA IS CLEARLY SHOWING ATTM AS THE MO/AR PRECIPITATION AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM AND MOVE NORTH THE REST OF THE NIGHT ARRIVING INTO FAR SOUTH SECTIONS OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR AND GUSTY 20 TO 35+ MPH NE WINDS. THE WETNESS OF THE SNOW MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING OF SNOW WITH 8-10 TO 1 RATIOS SUGGESTED. NICHOLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Is it me or does the current SLP look well east of the HPC predictions? Looks like the center is around the Arkansas/Louisiana/Mississippi border region, compared to the predicted center on the other side of Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 850 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013 UPDATE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PROBABLY BE UPPED BY A INCH OR TWO MOST LOCATIONS. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL MAKE FINAL DECISIONS. SO..NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED BUT THIS IS AN INFORMATIONAL HEADS UP ON WHAT THE DATA IS CLEARLY SHOWING ATTM AS THE MO/AR PRECIPITATION AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM AND MOVE NORTH THE REST OF THE NIGHT ARRIVING INTO FAR SOUTH SECTIONS OF OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR AND GUSTY 20 TO 35+ MPH NE WINDS. THE WETNESS OF THE SNOW MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING OF SNOW WITH 8-10 TO 1 RATIOS SUGGESTED. NICHOLS Nice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 RGEM north, a bit stronger. Gonna go over top LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Toronto folks: safely toss the NAM. I found the culprit running BUFKIT. After starting as snow the model inexplicably shoots temps at 900mb to +2c around 6z. This is during the heaviest pcpn when dynamic cooling should be occurring and has been shown on absolutely no other model. The column above the surface should be completely AOB freezing at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Pretty reasonable run for SEMI at least, really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 That is a crazy juicy ensemble mean, not sure if I buy it, but it has to be at least taking into account lake enhancement, because it is hard to fathom that much moisture making it this far NW.Buh bye buddy.. We'll miss you!! RGEM north, a bit stronger. Gonna go over top LAF. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 No stopping tossing the GFS here. Make a run for generators, MKE. If only the MEE rule (Marquette-NAM-Euro) was a realistic one to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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