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March 2013 General Disco

snowstormcanuck

By snowstormcanuck,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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harrisale

harrisale

Posted
Posted

IWX just issued a hydrologic outlook stating that we could get another 1-2" of precip by Tuesday in addition to snow melt of about an inch liquid equivalent this weekend which would certainly raise flooding concerns.  They give a heads up to be concerned with possible watches and warnings that may be posted later.

 

Pretty early on to be mention of flood warnings. They must have high confidence. This will be interesting to watch.

 

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
305 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013 /205 PM CST WED MAR 6 2013/

...FLOODING POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

FLOODING IS A GROWING CONCERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF RUNOFF FROM THE MELTING SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 12 INCHES OF SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS A VERY WET SNOW WITH AN AVERAGE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT RATIO OF 10 TO 1. THIS MEANS THE LIQUID CONTENT OF THE
SNOW PACK IS LIKELY BETWEEN 0.50 INCHES AND 1.20 INCHES. THIS SNOW
WILL SLOWLY MELT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RELEASING THIS WATER INTO
THE GROUND WHICH IS ALREADY MOIST AND NEARLY SATURATED.

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EACH
COULD BRING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED ONE OR EVEN TWO
INCHES BY THE END OF TUESDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH COUPLED WITH THE MELTING
SNOW WOULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WITH FLOODING
DEVELOPING IN LOW LYING AREAS. IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACH OR EXCEED
TWO INCHES...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING COULD DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

THIS IS STILL A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH UNCERTAIN DETAILS AT THIS
TIME. STAY TUNED TO UPDATED FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOW IS THE
TIME TO BEGIN THINKING ABOUT YOUR PREPARATIONS IF YOU LIVE IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

$
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daddylonglegs

daddylonglegs

Posted
Posted

La Crosse chimes in:

 

.HYDROLOGY...248 PM CST WED MAR 6 2013CONCERN INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH ANTICIPATED RAINFALL/SNOWMELTFRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATING A GOOD SLUGOF GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPIRIVER REGION. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING RAINFALL//CENTERED ON SATURDAY//OF A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THINKING THAT CURRENT SNOWPACK IN PLACE WOULDBE ABLE TO ABSORB MOST OF THIS RAINFALL AS SNOWPACK TEMPERATURESSTILL IN THE TEENS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND IN THEMIDDLE 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/NORTHEAST IA. HOWEVER...IF WE DO ENDUP WITH MORE RAINFALL GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTHE COLUMN OF ATMOSPHERE...OR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND FURTHERRIPENING OF THE SNOWPACK...RUNOFF COULD BECOME A PROBLEM. FROSTDEPTH IS QUITE DEEP /1.5 TO 3 FEET/ AND THE TOP SEVERAL INCHES AREFROZEN SOLID WITH CONCRETE FROST. ANY SNOWMELT OR RAINFALL WILL ALLRUN OFF INTO WATERWAYS. THERE IS ALSO ICE IN SOME OF OUR CREEKS ANDRIVERS...SO IF THERE IS A RISE...WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME ICE ACTION.AS SUCH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THISSITUATION.

 

Got to love that deep frost...

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Average date of last inch of snow left on the ground for N MI.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=apx&storyid=93110&source=0

 

Spring of 2008, the last inch on the ground here was like March 29th!

---

 

DLL - That's the situation here to with the frost and frozen rivers and lakes. I haven't seen open water since the last warm up over 2 weeks ago. Going to be awhile before the Robin's can find worms in the topsoil.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Well, I'm up to 25" for the year now. FWA is at 31.5", very near their normal of 32.4".

 

I continue to find it amazing that every year they end up with more total snow than MBY, many times by several inches, even though we are only 20 miles apart. I think that they have the opposite problem that Pearson has, slantsticking.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Looking more and more like some heavy rains early next week. Combined with the snowpack release, flooding concerns will be an issue for the Wabash, White, and Ohio River valleys. The GFS also forms a secondary which brings additional rains to the Ohio valley later in the week. Could become a major issue for the Ohio River.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Don't think my 4" of snowcover is going to withstand the mini-torch this weekend. Should be down to a T either on Saturday or Sunday which will make it 30 or 31 straight days with at least 1" of snowcover. Nice run, especially after the endless brown of last winter.

How many 1"+ snowcover days have you had this winter?

 

Ive had 49 this winter, 20 last winter, and 81 the winter before. Normal is upper 40s.

 

My 8am snowdepth this winter. Not impressive depth-wise, nor did I string together a full month of 1"+ cover like you, but extended bare periods were not in the cards this year like last, thankfully.

 

Nov 25- T

 

Dec 21- T

Dec 22- 1

Dec 23- T

Dec 24- T

Dec 25- 1

Dec 26- 1

Dec 27- 6

Dec 28- 5

Dec 29- 7

Dec 30- 7

Dec 31- 6

Jan 01- 5

Jan 02- 5

Jan 03- 5

Jan 04- 4

Jan 05- 4

Jan 06- 4

Jan 07- 4

Jan 08- 3

Jan 09- 3

Jan 10- 1

Jan 11- T

 

Jan 21- T

Jan 22- 1

Jan 23- 1

Jan 24- 1

Jan 25- 1

Jan 26- 4

Jan 27- 3

Jan 28- 4

 

Jan 31- 2

Feb 01- 3

Feb 02- 2

Feb 03- 4

Feb 04- 3

Feb 05- 6

Feb 06- 4

Feb 07- 3

Feb 08- 4

Feb 09- 4

Feb 10- 3

Feb 11- T

Feb 12- T

Feb 13- T

Feb 14- T

 

Feb 17- 2

Feb 18- 1

 

Feb 20- T

Feb 21- T

Feb 22- 1

Feb 23- 3

Feb 24- 2

Feb 25- 2

Feb 26- 1

Feb 27- 2

Feb 28- 3

Mar 01- 1

Mar 02- 1

Mar 03- 1

Mar 04- 1

Mar 05- T

Mar 06- T

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Nice snow depth recording SnowFreak!

 

I'm up to 45 days of 1"+ snow cover this winter. A lot of those days of course were last month.

 

Not looking forward to the ice cold rain and fog this weekend.

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DAFF

DAFF

Posted
Posted

The last system was like salt in the wounds. Watching the evolution of the storm from beginning to end and getting nothing but brilliant sunshine and dark clouds to our south.  Many are on the spring is just around the corner band wagon.  We might be in the transition state but the chance for getting another snow event is greater than not. Snow is fair game till April 15th so don't put the shovels and blowers away just yet.

 

Another nice day today. The ground is still very stiff from frost. Hopefully any rain is greated with some sustained warmth before the system ....

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

Don't think my 4" of snowcover is going to withstand the mini-torch this weekend. Should be down to a T either on Saturday or Sunday which will make it 30 or 31 straight days with at least 1" of snowcover. Nice run, especially after the endless brown of last winter.

I estimate I've got at least 8" still on the ground, so my snowpack might survive. Regardless, I'm looking forward to the sunny weekend!

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Nice snow depth recording SnowFreak!

 

I'm up to 45 days of 1"+ snow cover this winter. A lot of those days of course were last month.

 

Not looking forward to the ice cold rain and fog this weekend.

Thanks. Thats one hell of a comeback you made. I was saying all along that it was ridiculous for all the futility talk back in Jan because of how long the winter is...but didnt think youd do this good!

 

This may go OT a bit...but what the heck its weather and Im bored. Looking at my 8am snowdepth the previous 2 winters really puts the extremes into perspective. 2010-11 felt more like northern MI than southern MI, then 2011-12 humbled me BIG time as it felt more like a southern OH winter than a southern MI one. Allowed me to appreciate a more normal winter like this one after being spoiled from 2007-2011.

 

Anyway...snow depth obs arent talked about often, but for me its a great gauge on what the winter landscape was like. Its an average depth rounded to the nearest inch, so it does not take into account the precise tenth-of-an-inch measurments or the mounds of snow from shoveling. Looking at the last 3 years really shows one extreme to the other and the middle ground (which is this year). Warning...scroll-like post lol.

 

2010-11

Dec 02- T

Dec 03- T

 

Dec 07- T

 

Dec 09- T

Dec 10- 1

Dec 11- T

Dec 12- 1

Dec 13- 6

Dec 14- 6

Dec 15- 6

Dec 16- 5

Dec 17- 5

Dec 18- 5

Dec 19- 5

Dec 20- 5

Dec 21- 5

Dec 22- 6

Dec 23- 5

Dec 24- 5

Dec 25- 5

Dec 26- 5

Dec 27- 5

Dec 28- 5

Dec 29- 5

Dec 30- 5

Dec 31- 2

 

Jan 05- T

Jan 06- 1

Jan 07- 1

Jan 08- 3

Jan 09- 2

Jan 10- 2

Jan 11- 2

Jan 12- 5

Jan 13- 5

Jan 14- 5

Jan 15- 6

Jan 16- 6

Jan 17- 5

Jan 18- 5

Jan 19- 3

Jan 20- 3

Jan 21- 4

Jan 22- 4

Jan 23- 4

Jan 24- 4

Jan 25- 5

Jan 26- 5

Jan 27- 4

Jan 28- 6

Jan 29- 7

Jan 30- 7

Jan 31- 6

Feb 01- 7

Feb 02- 12

Feb 03- 13

Feb 04- 12

Feb 05- 11

Feb 06- 15

Feb 07- 15

Feb 08- 14

Feb 09- 13

Feb 10- 13

Feb 11- 12

Feb 12- 12

Feb 13- 12

Feb 14- 9

Feb 15- 7

Feb 16- 7

Feb 17- 5

Feb 18- T

 

Feb 21- 10

Feb 22- 9

Feb 23- 8

Feb 24- 8

Feb 25- 10

Feb 26- 10

Feb 27- 9

Feb 28- 5

Mar 01- 5

Mar 02- 4

Mar 03- 4

Mar 04- 4

Mar 05- T

Mar 06- 5

Mar 07- 2

Mar 08- 2

Mar 09- T

Mar 10- T

Mar 11- 4

Mar 12- 2

Mar 13- T

Mar 14- T

 

Apr 18- T

 

Total: 94 days with T+, 81 days with 1"+

*******************

 

2011-12

Nov 30- 1

Dec 01- T

Dec 02- T

 

Dec 06- 2

Dec 07- T

Dec 08- T

Dec 09- 1

Dec 10- 1

Dec 11- T

Dec 12- T

Dec 13- T

 

Dec 18- T

Dec 24- T

 

Dec 28- T

Dec 29- T

 

Jan 02- T

Jan 03- T

Jan 04- T

 

Jan 13- T

Jan 14- 2

Jan 15- 3

Jan 16- 2

 

Jan 20- 1

Jan 21- 3

Jan 22- 3

Jan 23- 1

 

Jan 27- 1

Jan 28- T

Jan 29- T

Jan 30- 1

Jan 31- 1

 

Feb 11- 5

Feb 12- 4

Feb 13- 4

Feb 14- 3

Feb 15- 3

Feb 16- T

Feb 17- T

Feb 18- T

 

Feb 24- 2

Feb 25- T

 

Mar 05- T

Mar 09- T

 

Total: 43 days with T+, 20 days with 1"+

***********

 

2012-13

Nov 25- T

 

Dec 21- T

Dec 22- 1

Dec 23- T

Dec 24- T

Dec 25- 1

Dec 26- 1

Dec 27- 6

Dec 28- 5

Dec 29- 7

Dec 30- 7

Dec 31- 6

Jan 01- 5

Jan 02- 5

Jan 03- 5

Jan 04- 4

Jan 05- 4

Jan 06- 4

Jan 07- 4

Jan 08- 3

Jan 09- 3

Jan 10- 1

Jan 11- T

 

Jan 21- T

Jan 22- 1

Jan 23- 1

Jan 24- 1

Jan 25- 1

Jan 26- 4

Jan 27- 3

Jan 28- 4

 

Jan 31- 2

Feb 01- 3

Feb 02- 2

Feb 03- 4

Feb 04- 3

Feb 05- 6

Feb 06- 4

Feb 07- 3

Feb 08- 4

Feb 09- 4

Feb 10- 3

Feb 11- T

Feb 12- T

Feb 13- T

Feb 14- T

 

Feb 17- 2

Feb 18- 1

 

Feb 20- T

Feb 21- T

Feb 22- 1

Feb 23- 3

Feb 24- 2

Feb 25- 2

Feb 26- 1

Feb 27- 2

Feb 28- 3

Mar 01- 1

Mar 02- 1

Mar 03- 1

Mar 04- 1

Mar 05- T

Mar 06- T

 

63 days with T+, 49 days with 1"+ thru Mar 6th

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

DGEX not giving up on the winter lol

 

GFS has a storm threat 132hrs out now....

 

The long range GFS looks mega warm, until you realize it goes through to a period where our average high will be over 50.

 

Temps warm almost 1 degree every other day on average now.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

GFS has a storm threat 132hrs out now....

 

The long range GFS looks mega warm, until you realize it goes through to a period where our average high will be over 50.

 

Temps warm almost 1 degree every other day on average now.

Yep, Its march.But DTW average high doesnt hit 50 til Mar 25th. Nevertheless, people need to get out of the habit of referring to temps within a few degrees of normal as a torch :lmao:

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ukrocks

ukrocks

Posted
Posted

GFS has a storm threat 132hrs out now....

 

The long range GFS looks mega warm, until you realize it goes through to a period where our average high will be over 50.

 

Temps warm almost 1 degree every other day on average now.

 

Yep, Its march.But DTW average high doesnt hit 50 til Mar 25th. Nevertheless, people need to get out of the habit of referring to temps within a few degrees of normal as a torch :lmao:

 

Every single year I laugh because I see people freaking out about their average high hitting 50. And michsnowfreak is always right behind them to prove them wrong.

 

Here in Louisville our average high hits 50 by February 20th, but we've had some of our biggest snowstorms hit in March. Our average high hits 60 in less than two weeks and there has still been 10 six plus inch snowstorms in March.Two of them were over ten inches.

 

In fact we've seen a daily two plus inch snowfall at least once everyday from March 1st to 24th with the exception of one day. Our daily snowfall record is at least one inch everyday in March but two. You're way north of me so I don't want to hear about how your snow chances are dwindling because I know they aren't. I typically start tracking for severe weather after March 15th because if we do get a decent snow it won't stay for more than 12 hours.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
  • Author
Posted

How many 1"+ snowcover days have you had this winter?

 

Ive had 49 this winter, 20 last winter, and 81 the winter before. Normal is upper 40s.

 

My 8am snowdepth this winter. Not impressive depth-wise, nor did I string together a full month of 1"+ cover like you, but extended bare periods were not in the cards this year like last, thankfully.

 

Nov 25- T

 

Dec 21- T

Dec 22- 1

Dec 23- T

Dec 24- T

Dec 25- 1

Dec 26- 1

Dec 27- 6

Dec 28- 5

Dec 29- 7

Dec 30- 7

Dec 31- 6

Jan 01- 5

Jan 02- 5

Jan 03- 5

Jan 04- 4

Jan 05- 4

Jan 06- 4

Jan 07- 4

Jan 08- 3

Jan 09- 3

Jan 10- 1

Jan 11- T

 

Jan 21- T

Jan 22- 1

Jan 23- 1

Jan 24- 1

Jan 25- 1

Jan 26- 4

Jan 27- 3

Jan 28- 4

 

Jan 31- 2

Feb 01- 3

Feb 02- 2

Feb 03- 4

Feb 04- 3

Feb 05- 6

Feb 06- 4

Feb 07- 3

Feb 08- 4

Feb 09- 4

Feb 10- 3

Feb 11- T

Feb 12- T

Feb 13- T

Feb 14- T

 

Feb 17- 2

Feb 18- 1

 

Feb 20- T

Feb 21- T

Feb 22- 1

Feb 23- 3

Feb 24- 2

Feb 25- 2

Feb 26- 1

Feb 27- 2

Feb 28- 3

Mar 01- 1

Mar 02- 1

Mar 03- 1

Mar 04- 1

Mar 05- T

Mar 06- T

 

52. My list looks almost the same as yours except there were no gaps in February. Last year I had 11 days with 1"+ :lol:

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I estimate I've got at least 8" still on the ground, so my snowpack might survive. Regardless, I'm looking forward to the sunny weekend!

 

Where'd you get the extra 2" from? Two days ago when I had 6" of pack you said you had the same.

 

In any case, unless that storm early next week delivers you'll just be delaying the inevitable.

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