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Feb 22/23 - Discussion and Obs for a mixed bag event


MN Transplant

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Despite the believe that everybody overreacts to ice, I hated it when I lived in HGR.   There is a legitimate concern over it, especially when your job requires you to drive in it, so I hear you.   And what fun is it to be in an ice storm with zero power to track it anyway?   Now that I don't drive and my lines are underground, I'm not nearly as concerned about being in one.  At this point, I wouldn't mind one.

I hope I never see 1" of ice, ever.  The only time I like ice is when we get a thin coating after we have snow on the ground

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Yeah, I know.  Sorry if my post came across as too serious.

 

I'm not arguing with anyone that the NAM should be trusted.  I just can't understand why changes wouldn't be made to it if it can't be trusted under 24 hours.

 

it's a mesoscale model. it should generally be close within 24 hours but its strength is not winter storms.

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Agreed. The good thing is the euphoria only lasts 90 minutes or so until the gfs comes out. I will say this. The NAM got wetter. Wrong on amounts sure but I won't discount the trend. I expect the gfs to follow in the nam footsteps with the trend at least. .2+/- doesn't seem unreachable at all. 

 

If you extrapolate the midwest radar loop it looks like were gonna get buried though. 

 

 

Here's a better look at the nam precip. .40 line through dca. Cut it in half and we're still ok for some fun at least. 

 

attachicon.giftwisternamprecip.JPG

I would think the NAM's cold temps in the lower parts of the column would be due, at least in part, to the high precip rates

take them out of the equation and it's not so cold

hence, if Wes' stats are correct with this system, it should be warmer than what NAM is depicting

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I would think the NAM's cold temps in the lower parts of the column would be due, at least in part, to the high precip rates

take them out of the equation and it's not so cold

hence, if Wes' stats are correct with this system, it should be warmer than what NAM is depicting

In response to the post above, I don't see why it matters what our pressure is. The pressures to our northeast are rising rapidly. We want the wind flow to be from the ne, east as a second choice.

As for your post, I don't agree with it because I don't see where this warmth is going to come from. Maybe you can convince me.

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Thanks for the info Wes.  What I don't understand is why that can't be dealt with as part of the program if it is a high bias.  

 

You certainly could post process the output to somewhat correct the precipitation amounts.  I suspect that is done locally a some offices but have been a way long enough that I could be wrong.  The trouble is that it's bias is high but not consistant which makes using a bias corrected product difficult. 

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In response to the post above, I don't see why it matters what our pressure is. The pressures to our northeast are rising rapidly. We want the wind flow to be from the ne, east as a second choice.

As for your post, I don't agree with it because I don't see where this warmth is going to come from. Maybe you can convince me.

SE winds at the surface with the need for cooling to fight winds upstairs from SW

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_024_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

take away the heavier rates and it won't be as cold

otoh, if the NAM is right, then it is that cold

I'm thinking NAM is doing its usual precip max 24 hrs+ before the system arrives

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In response to the post above, I don't see why it matters what our pressure is. The pressures to our northeast are rising rapidly. We want the wind flow to be from the ne, east as a second choice.

As for your post, I don't agree with it because I don't see where this warmth is going to come from. Maybe you can convince me.

 

East is a bad direction for most of use,  You can survive a little better than we can but ocean temps in winter are above freezing so an east wind brings warming.

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lol,  you don't want to get too much into its wheelhouse.  Its much more fun to look at in the 15-18 hour time ranges when it jumps around but still has some funky qpf. 

 

After the RAP watching last weekend that was totally fruitless I'd be tempted to not even look at it. :P

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After the RAP watching last weekend that was totally fruitless I'd be tempted to not even look at it. :P

 

i actually don't think it has much of a wheelhouse but it gets even funkier in its longer ranges.  What is so fitting about the GFS is that while we are cold, we don't get squat.  At 48hrs when we get over .10 in 6 hours and aren't far from .25, we are way too warm for snow. 

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I sure hope you guys are right about the RAP. After looking fairly promising heading into late tomorrow, it's now heading toward bone dry (at least by the NCEP maps)

Well it being dry doesn't mean it's wrong. The NAM is on its own.. Don't really care about the RGEM.

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