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MN Transplant

Feb 22/23 - Discussion and Obs for a mixed bag event

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lol no one needs to speak for anyone. there was never a rule about starting threads.. the problem was when people started them 6 days out. the rest is silly superstition. 

 

tho we're probably being nam'ed... plus the time of day is going to be a problem around me at least.

 

NAM'd

 

post-1746-0-72731600-1361457237_thumb.gi

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it's a cold sfc run even into dc. it prob starts as snow but from 30-36 there's a warm layer in there.

 

nam.

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Hey, at least it's frozen.  But it's the NAM.   Prep for heartbreak. 

 

You'd have to be emotionally invested for heartbreak.  This is the person at the bar that flirts with you for a little while, but then leaves with someone else (Worcester).  Bummer, but not soul-crushing. 

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this run does delay that warm nose quite a bit compared to last night at least. if you're in the winterwxluvr school that's a trend that could keep on giving.

 

nam.

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sleet might be better than snow. light snow at 33 at 1pm is going to be ugly.

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Nam jokes aside, the hp nosing down in canada has been there for runs of all models. It's cold outside now. Antecedent airmass is cold going in along with a 1030+hp flexing it's muscles as precip arrives. GL low isn't that strong either. It's not going to be a waa machine pushing the hp out of the way. It's a pretty standard battle of airmasses and in this case I would hedge on the colder aim mass winning for a time at least. I'm more concerned about precip but we did just get nam'd so...

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Heh, I just actually looked at the NAM.   Wedge is in there longer than I thought.  We just need some good precip.  I wish that great lakes low would just collapse and die quicker. 

 

Considering the beast it once was on the models it's become a kitten already (all things considered). 

 

700 looks "ok" for a period of "ok" rates. I love a good nam'ing in the morning. 

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Nam jokes aside, the hp nosing down in canada has been there for runs of all models. It's cold outside now. Antecedent airmass is cold going in along with a 1030+hp flexing it's muscles as precip arrives. GL low isn't that strong either. It's not going to be a waa machine pushing the hp out of the way. It's a pretty standard battle of airmasses and in this case I would hedge on the colder aim mass winning for a time at least. I'm more concerned about precip but we did just get nam'd so...

Dusting to 1"... The forecast of a winner.

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Dusting to 1"... The forecast of a winner.

On a more realistic note, hard to argue with that.  I could see 1-2" for folks farther north like Hoffman, our York county neighbors and maybe Phin.  

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On a more realistic note, hard to argue with that. I could see 1-2" for folks farther north like Hoffman, our York county neighbors and maybe Phin.

Probably 1-2" as usual somehow at TU.

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This looks like an inch of snow.. then maybe up to a tenth inch of ice on top... then it all gets blown away Saturday morning by the rain

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My thinking (cue Ian) is that the cold will still overperform.  It's cold.  The ground is cold.  The low is 1000 miles away.  Where's all this warming supposed to come from.  The NAM trend (cue Ian) is wetter.  

 

However, Ian is right, it's the NAM.  Randy is right, it's the NAM and probably just lining us up for kick number 100 on the season.  But, it IS possible.

 

AND ...........last Wed when the soundings were flying around like crazy saying it couldn't snow because it was too warm........what was the result..........that's right.............an all snow event everywhere except sea level.

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This looks like an inch of snow.. then maybe up to a tenth inch of ice on top... then it all gets blown away Saturday morning by the rain

If I get an inch with some ice on top, I'll be happy given how this winter has gone. it's nearing the point where I start to tire of the cold if its not useful.

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My thinking (cue Ian) is that the cold will still overperform.  It's cold.  The ground is cold.  The low is 1000 miles away.  Where's all this warming supposed to come from.  The NAM trend (cue Ian) is wetter.  

 

However, Ian is right, it's the NAM.  Randy is right, it's the NAM and probably just lining us up for kick number 100 on the season.  But, it IS possible.

 

AND ...........last Wed when the soundings were flying around like crazy saying it couldn't snow because it was too warm........what was the result..........that's right.............an all snow event everywhere except sea level.

ive kinda silently liked this one for a few days at least tempwise..tho it's still gonna be lame imo. 

 

just don't be upset when we get .07=-.11" liquid

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4km NAM suggests 2m temps are well below freezing and we get a good little slug of moisture down towards C and SWVA. Doesn't look like nearly as much makes it up into the DC area in the later frames.

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If I get an inch with some ice on top, I'll be happy given how this winter has gone. it's nearing the point where I started to tire of the cold if its not useful.

 

It will be a very shortlived ice/snow "event"... and I am assuming ice from 36-42 because the 2m temps are 30-32 around the area and 850s go slightly above 0... with no heavy rates, i would expect light freezing rain

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My thinking (cue Ian) is that the cold will still overperform.  It's cold.  The ground is cold.  The low is 1000 miles away.  Where's all this warming supposed to come from.  The NAM trend (cue Ian) is wetter.  

 

However, Ian is right, it's the NAM.  Randy is right, it's the NAM and probably just lining us up for kick number 100 on the season.  But, it IS possible.

 

AND ...........last Wed when the soundings were flying around like crazy saying it couldn't snow because it was too warm........what was the result..........that's right.............an all snow event everywhere except sea level.

 

 

I think you're in a good spot.  Us, naso much.

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I think you're in a good spot.  Us, naso much.

He's going to have ice much longer than we will, but I don't think he's going to get much more in the way of snow.  Warm nose is around 700-800mb and CAD can't help that much.  

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ive kinda silently liked this one for a few days at least tempwise..tho it's still gonna be lame imo. 

 

just don't be upset when we get .07=-.11" liquid

 

I wish I could say that I won't, but I will.  That ticks me off more than any other aspect of this crap winter.

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It will be a very shortlived ice/snow "event"... and I am assuming ice from 36-42 because the 2m temps are 30-32 around the area and 850s go slightly above 0... with no heavy rates, i would expect light freezing rain

 

 

The soundings say sleet not freezing rain.  The question is whether the NAM rates and amounts are right or not. I haven't seen the Euro, how much qpf did it and last night's 06Z GFS have on us?   Back to the west, they'll probably see snow for much of the event. 

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I haven't seen the Euro, how much qpf did it and last night's 06Z GFS have on us?   

Not sure about the Euro, but 0z and 6z GFS were both very dry (<=0.1" or so) and warm.  

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Not sure about the Euro, but 0z and 6z GFS were both very dry (<=0.1" or so) and warm.  

 

You're right about Winchester,  they look like sleet more than snow.  The warm layer gets them.  It will be interesting to see if the sounding trend colder there. 

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