February 25-26 Winter Storm

[Ajdos]

TUE 12Z 26-FEB  -2.1     3.4    1007      74      18    0.00     551     545    TUE 18Z 26-FEB  -0.5    -3.1    1003      91      99    0.30     543     541    WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.2    -3.8    1003      98      80    0.41     536     534    WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.0    -3.8    1002      99      98    0.11     533     531    WED 12Z 27-FEB  -0.3    -4.8    1003      95      98    0.04     533     530    WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.5    -6.2    1005      86      96    0.05     532     528    THU 00Z 28-FEB  -0.3    -8.1    1008      85      99    0.05     531     525    THU 06Z 28-FEB  -5.0    -7.9    1008      92      89    0.01     531     524    

 

0.97"

 

Thank you sir!

[Harry]

I'd argue that this is all snow, that +0.2 layer isn't going to make much difference and with the high precip rates it is probably overdone. Probably one of those low ratio deals though. 8:1-10:1

 

Cement style snow.

 

I would feel better if the surface low stayed to the south of here.

[Geos]

I'd argue that this is all snow, that +0.2 layer isn't going to make much difference and with the high precip rates it is probably overdone. Probably one of those low ratio deals though. 8:1-10:1

 

Yeah I'd say that's all snow for DTW.

 

It was 0.2° during the 7th storm and that didn't make any difference.

[Thundersnow12]

ORD

 

TUE 12Z 26-FEB  -0.6    -4.0    1001      81     100    0.17     542     541   
TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.0    -4.8     998      92      96      0.57     535     537   
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.5    -3.4    999      99      94    0.14     533     534   .

[Geos]

Stupid question but are 850's on the left or right?

 

2nd column. So -4° at the start.

[Stebo]

Cement style snow.

 

I would feel better if the surface low stayed to the south of here.

 

I am not picky, I will take any snow we can get.

[RCNYILWX]

ORD

 

TUE 12Z 26-FEB  -0.6    -4.0    1001      81     100    0.17     542     541   

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.0    -4.8     998      92      96      0.57     535     537   

WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.5    -3.4    999      99      94    0.14     533     534   .

 

Looks like all snow at ORD on this run or close to it with temps for a time just above freezing.

850 mb low track is favorable for I-80 and north and the seemingly unfavorable MSLP track is deceiving because the system is occluding by that point and all the heavier precipitation would have occurred by the time it tracks over Chicago. Those thermal profiles would definitely support mostly if not all cement snow for ORD. 

[BowMeHunter]

EURO shows 0.0-0.5°C for ORD during the main thump.

 

1.09" MKE, 1.19" for ORD.

 

Is that including this storms qpf?

[wisconsinwx]

Is that including this storms qpf?

 

No, but it includes some lighter snow showers a day or two after the main thump.  It is not all at once, but about 0.75" is from the main 12-18 hour thump.

[Geos]

Is that including this storms qpf?

 

Nope!

 

[Thunder Road]

right

 

 

2nd column. So -4° at the start.

 

Thanks!  So 9" of tree-plastering, squirrel-squashing, car-caking cement then.  Nice.

[Thundersnow12]

Euro with a 18" bullseye near DVN/cycloneville (counting tonights snow too)

[Geos]

Thanks!  So 9" of tree-plastering, squirrel-squashing, car-caking cement then.  Nice.

 

Near exactly what I had 2 weeks ago!

[BowMeHunter]

thanks much, Geos and WiWxWeenie

[Stebo]

DTX

 

 

TIMING/LOCATION DISPARITIES CONTINUE TO ABOUND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REGARDS TO THIS NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO BE JUST HOW FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS SYSTEM CAN LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BEFORE BEGINNING THE TRANSITION TO THE EAST COAST AS ITS ENERGY IS STRETCHED EASTWARD INTO LARGE PV ANOMALY EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. EVEN WITH THE VARIED MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A GOOD BET THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL. ONE OTHER FACTOR THAT WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THIS STORM WILL BE THE MARGINALLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WHILE MODELS ALL COOL OVERALL TEMPERATURES AOB H85 TO BELOW 0C WITH TIME (-3C TO -5C AT THE H85 LEVEL) THROUGH MOST LIKELY BOTH EVAPORATIVE AND DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES...THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN CERTAINLY MAY IMPACT BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE DAY TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE BREADTH OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES AT THAT POINT.

[Stebo]

LOT

 

 

THIS MORNING...THERE IS A BUCKLE IN THE JET STREAM NOTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW. CURRENTLY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES OF A DEEPENING LOW LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...THOUGH STILL IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS HAVE A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHILE THE FASTER GFS TRACKS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR AREA. THE GFS THERMAL PROFILE MAY BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW IT IS DEPICTING...AND COULD SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW MONDAY. WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GEFS SOLUTION SPREAD...AND THE GEFS MEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TRACK...ALBEIT FASTER...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AS WELL AS FAVOR THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF/GEM. REGARDING MODEL PERFORMANCE OF LATE HOWEVER...THERE MAY YET BE SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE STORM AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE COMES ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND IS SAMPLED BY OUR UPPER AIR NETWORK.

[Stebo]

Btw what worked for me RE: Bolding text, is that I pasted what I wanted quoted, then highlighted it. Then clicked the quote button, then you can bold the text inside the quote bubble via the bold button. That should work for those who were having issues.

[Stebo]

Also the 6z GFS hard trended toward the Euro with respect to the 500mb vorticity, the surface low however is still way to the North compared to the 500mb low position. I'd expect further adjustments by the GFS going forward.

[snowstormcanuck]

Also the 6z GFS hard trended toward the Euro with respect to the 500mb vorticity, the surface low however is still way to the North compared to the 500mb low position. I'd expect further adjustments by the GFS going forward.

 

Personally, I'd lock in the 6z GFS and throw away the key.

[toronto blizzard]

Personally, I'd lock in the 6z GFS and throw away the key.

Also lock in the 0z EURO. Solid 10-12''

[snowstormcanuck]

I know climo here (and for a lot of folks outside of the upper parts of this subforum) becomes increasingly hostile to bigger snowstorms after the first week of March. With few exceptions, mid March-April is just top up slush in Toronto. So here's hoping we can all make the most of what could be the last serious threat of the season.

[michsnowfreak]

I know climo here (and for a lot of folks outside of the upper parts of this subforum) becomes increasingly hostile to bigger snowstorms after the first week of March. With few exceptions, mid March-April is just top up slush in Toronto. So here's hoping we can all make the most of what could be the last serious threat of the season.

I would say its more the first 2 weeks of March. And we have had some classic late season storms before. Havent had one since 2008 so Im feeling it this year Of course, I said the same thing last year

 

Detroit top 10 snowstorm on after March 15th

01.) 24.5" - Apr 6, 1886

02.) 9.9" - Mar 16/17, 1973

03.) 9.5" - Mar 21/22, 1916

04.) 9.5" - Mar 19/20, 1883

05.) 9.2" - Mar 26/27, 1934

06.) 9.0" - Mar 14/15, 1912

07.) 8.3" - Mar 17/18, 1973

08.) 8.2" - Mar 21, 1888

09.) 7.7" - Mar 30/31, 1881

10.) 7.7" - Mar 22/23, 1968

11.) 7.5" - Mar 21/22, 1932

12.) 7.4" - Apr 5/6, 1982

13.) 7.3" - Mar 20/21, 1983

14.) 7.3" - Mar 21/22, 2008

15.) 7.2" - Apr 5/6, 2009

16.) 7.1" - Mar 21/22, 1992

17.) 6.5" - Mar 26/27, 1913

18.) 6.0" - Apr 7, 1894

19.) 6.0" - May 9, 1923

20.) 6.0" - Mar 25, 1930

21.) 6.0" - Mar 25, 1933

 

Also...since 1881....ON or AFTER March 20th...

58 storms have dropped 3"+

41 storms have dropped 4"+

26 storms have dropped 5"+

 

The region has had some massive spring storms before. 2013 the year to see another?

[snowstormcanuck]

I would say its more the first 2 weeks of March. And we have had some classic late season storms before. Havent had one since 2008 so Im feeling it this year Of course, I said the same thing last year

 

Detroit top 10 snowstorm on after March 15th

01.) 24.5" - Apr 6, 1886

02.) 9.9" - Mar 16/17, 1973

03.) 9.5" - Mar 21/22, 1916

04.) 9.5" - Mar 19/20, 1883

05.) 9.2" - Mar 26/27, 1934

06.) 9.0" - Mar 14/15, 1912

07.) 8.3" - Mar 17/18, 1973

08.) 8.2" - Mar 21, 1888

09.) 7.7" - Mar 30/31, 1881

10.) 7.7" - Mar 22/23, 1968

11.) 7.5" - Mar 21/22, 1932

12.) 7.4" - Apr 5/6, 1982

13.) 7.3" - Mar 20/21, 1983

14.) 7.3" - Mar 21/22, 2008

15.) 7.2" - Apr 5/6, 2009

16.) 7.1" - Mar 21/22, 1992

17.) 6.5" - Mar 26/27, 1913

18.) 6.0" - Apr 7, 1894

19.) 6.0" - May 9, 1923

20.) 6.0" - Mar 25, 1930

21.) 6.0" - Mar 25, 1933

 

Also...since 1881....ON or AFTER March 20th...

58 storms have dropped 3"+

41 storms have dropped 4"+

26 storms have dropped 5"+

 

The region has had some massive spring storms before. 2013 the year to see another?

 

Notice only a couple of those storms are recent though. Off the top of my head, the only siggy snowfalls (let's say >4") that occurred after March 15th here in the last 15 years or so were March 23, 2011 (5.9"), and March 21, 1998 (~6-10" Pearson/downtown). There was also the April 2003 ice storm.   

[A-L-E-K]

We have the closest thing to a widespread snowpack (including areas south of the current projected model track) in the central region we've seen in a longtime...we might see some minor shifts south with the baroclinic zone going forward but an early guess is this looks good for RFD and MKE.

[wisconsinwx]

Maybe a stretch, but like Alek's Illini win= snowstorm the next day or two, could this be a Marquette win over Syracuse= snowstorm shortly after?  Bowme and I could dream of that combo anyway.

[michsnowfreak]

Notice only a couple of those storms are recent though. Off the top of my head, the only siggy snowfalls (let's say >4") that occurred after March 15th here in the last 15 years or so were March 23, 2011 (5.9"), and March 21, 1998 (~6-10" Pearson/downtown). There was also the April 2003 ice storm.   

Then we are due!!! Even for storms that dont show on that list, its actually comical seeing how often...ESPECIALLY in the paltry 1930s-1950s, winters best storms were in Mar or even Apr.

 

Here the 4"+ snows after March 15th since Ive been measuring (1996).

 

Apr 5/6, 2009: 7.2" DTW, 4.6" MBY

Mar 27/28, 2008: 4.0" DTW, 5.0" MBY

Mar 21/22, 2008: 7.3" DTW, 6.8" MBY

Apr 23/24, 2005: 4.3" DTW, 6.7" MBY

Mar 16/17, 2004: 3.9" DTW, 5.9" MBY

Apr 7, 2003: 4.9" DTW, 5.0" MBY

Mar 25/26, 2002: 4.7" DTW, 8.0" MBY

Mar 19/20, 1996: 5.8" DTW, 7.0" IMBY

[dmc76]

Then we are due!!! Even for storms that dont show on that list, its actually comical seeing how often...ESPECIALLY in the paltry 1930s-1950s, winters best storms were in Mar or even Apr.

 

Here the 4"+ snows after March 15th since Ive been measuring (1996).

 

Apr 5/6, 2009: 7.2" DTW, 4.6" MBY

Mar 27/28, 2008: 4.0" DTW, 5.0" MBY

Mar 21/22, 2008: 7.3" DTW, 6.8" MBY

Apr 23/24, 2005: 4.3" DTW, 6.7" MBY

Mar 16/17, 2004: 3.9" DTW, 5.9" MBY

Apr 7, 2003: 4.9" DTW, 5.0" MBY

Mar 19/20, 1996: 5.8" DTW, 7.0" IMBY

 

16.5" here over a 3 day period, only if it was 3-4 wks earlier could have been 30"+

 

11.0" in less then 6 hrs Probably the best storm I ever witnessed around here

[michsnowfreak]

16.5" here over a 3 day period, only if it was 3-4 wks earlier could have been 30"+

 

11.0" in less then 6 hrs Probably the best storm I ever witnessed around here

Notice I edited to add the 2002 storm. Was a favorite storm of mine for many years and I forget to add it that was a ridiculous cutoff where you probably didnt see a flake. I went to U of M Dearborn and I remember the morning of Mar 27, 2002....I had 8" on the ground and they had 1". Reports of 12" near Dundee in Monroe co. ARB had 0.2" and DTX a T.

[daddylonglegs]

Storm looks like a pig...  Lots of precip.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Maybe a stretch, but like Alek's Illini win= snowstorm the next day or two, could this be a Marquette win over Syracuse= snowstorm shortly after?  Bowme and I could dream of that combo anyway.

Don't forget me