Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 .92" liquid at DPA...sfc temps iffy but an impressive run and will have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS, Euro and GEM all in agreement showing a low moving up from OK, to Northern IL then eventually transferring to the coast. All sub 1000mb before the transfer begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS, Euro and GEM all in agreement showing a low moving up from OK, to Northern IL then eventually transferring to the coast. All sub 1000mb before the transfer begins. thermals and dryslot are still a big question for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12z Euro looks good for a number of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12z Euro looks good for a number of people. I thought this one might be a candidate for a south trend, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Im liking the fact that we are in the 120 hour range....which is not "fantasy range" I guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 12z Euro looks good for a number of people. Yep, the trend with this storm has been SE, which is a tad surprising, though not really with blocking and the like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12z Euro looks good for a number of people. Is it good for here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Taken at face value the Euro is nice for next week in SW MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GGEM was similar to the Euro as well, the GFS looks like a hot mess though right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 GGEM was similar to the Euro as well, the GFS looks like a hot mess though right now. Its ensembles are all over, as to be expected with a situation like this. I can't tell if surface temps on the GFS and GEM would favor a heavy wet snow or a mix for the likes of Chicago and Milwaukee in this scenario. What do you think? Not a ton of arctic air associated with this, but could be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Its ensembles are all over, as to be expected with a situation like this. I can't tell if surface temps on the GFS and GEM would favor a heavy wet snow or a mix for the likes of Chicago and Milwaukee in this scenario. What do you think? Not a ton of arctic air associated with this, but could be cold enough. I think follow the Euro/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Is it good for here? Looks like a good shot of pcpn, but temps again are marginal. If it's all/mostly snow it'd be a spring time wet snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks like a good shot of pcpn, but temps again are marginal. If it's all/mostly snow it'd be a spring time wet snow event. From what I heard its 6-10" for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 From what I heard its 6-10" for us Is that your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Is that your call? No no its what the euro says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 No no its what the euro says Yeah, I know. I'm trying to extract your thoughts. Do you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 UKIE/GFS: Compared to GGEM/Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah, I know. I'm trying to extract your thoughts. Do you agree? I would want to agree but not sure if I should lol. Do you know what the 12z GEM showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I would want to agree but not sure if I should lol. Do you know what the 12z GEM showed? Synoptically it looked similar to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro is a solid hit for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Synoptically it looked similar to the EURO. What are your thoughts on this potential besides the it's still early part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What are your thoughts on this potential besides the it's still early part? Why are you so quick to deem that part as irrelevant? It's an interesting setup, but like I said earlier, temps will be borderline and we're going to want to keep the mid level low from getting too deep into the Lakes, otherwise we'r going to slot fairly early. Good news is I think the EURO/GGEM with their further south solutions are probably closer to reality given the weak -NAO and s/w kicker right on this storm's tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 EURO ensemble mean seems to back up the EURO/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 EURO ensemble mean seems to back up the EURO/GGEM. Def a fair amount of GFS ENS members south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro looks too far south for here for much of anything... storm cancel? I guess i'll keep watching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro is a big hit for sure fixed. At least the 12z run is. Over an inch of liquid for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro ensemble mean images, this just spells fun. Love patterns like this when we're about to get with another one inside 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro ensemble mean images, this just spells fun. Love patterns like this when we're about to get with another one inside 5 days. 12zecmwfens500mbHGHTNA120.gif 12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS120.gif Who on this board doesn't? Maybe Tropical, although even he's lying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 DVN.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 320 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013 .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY... GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH MORE SNOW LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION GOOD WITH NON-AMERICAN MODELS VERIFYING SLIGHTLY BETTER ON PRECIPITATION AND UPSTREAM PACIFIC ENERGY THAT WILL PRODUCE THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM MONDAY/TUESDAY. PREFERRED BLEND IS A 50/50 MIX OF GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF THROUGH DAY 7 AS GFS HAS FEEDBACK AND PHASING ISSUES WITH MOISTURE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AND ALSO AGAIN DAYS 4-5 WITH NEXT SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK USING PAST EVENTS AND THRESHOLDS OF SFC TRACK...INTENSITY AND JET AXIS WITH PW/S SUGGEST A SYSTEM THAT WILL INTENSIFY AND BE AS SIGNIFICANT OR TRENDING MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN TODAY/S EVENT WITH LOTS OF WIND.MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS NOT USABLE DUE TO PHASING ISSUES. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE CHANGES AS ALL SNOW EVENT IS SUPPORTED WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND PROBABLY WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MUCH BETTER DETERMINED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND PHASING SUGGEST THIS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED ARE ALSO AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH HIGHER POPS PROBABLY NEEDED. A HIGHER END WINTER EVENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.NICHOLS. EDIT: dunno why it's all hyperlink...sorry bouts that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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