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February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm Part 2


Powerball

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LOT still going with 3-5"

 

GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY SIMILAR IN THE HANDLING OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED   UPPER LOW THAT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...   WITH ONLY A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND NOTED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S   12Z RUNS. MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO A LITTLE CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH   THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST IL. THE OVERALL SCENARIO   REMAINS THE SAME...WITH THE EXPECTATION BEING A BURST OF SNOW   LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE   THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT THEN QUICKLY   SPREADING ATOP THE LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONT AND TROUGH GREATLY   REDUCING SNOW INTENSITY AND LIKELY RESULTING IN FREEZING DRIZZLE AS   SATURATION IN THE -10 C AND COLDER ICE NUCLEATION LAYER IS LOST.   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP   TO BE ALL SNOW INITIALLY...THOUGH A WEAK WARM NOSE AROUND 0 DEG C IS   INDICATED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD SUPPORT A   BRIEF MIX OF SNOW/SLEET THERE AT ONSET BEFORE COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS   AND PRODUCES ALL SNOW. COMBINATION OF MODEL QPF AMOUNTS...WHICH ARE   IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND BUFKIT/COBB SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS OF   10-12:1 SUPPORT QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE   BEFORE INTENSITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES WITH ARRIVAL OF AFOREMENTIONED   DRY SLOT INTRUSION. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED FAR WEST/NORTHWEST   WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS INITIALLY STRONGER AND FORECAST   SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID-LEVEL SATURATION LASTS LONGER...AND   THICKNESSES REMAIN A LITTLE COLDER. FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE AN   ISSUE WITH SOME GLAZING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...   THOUGH TEMPS LOOK TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY OR SO. ALL IN   ALL...GIVEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR    FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD EXPECT TO EVENTUALLY GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER   ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT AS IT DRAWS NEAR. THUS NO WINTER   STORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME
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:yikes:

 

i'll ride 1.9"...which fits nicely with the take 33% of what the RPM is showing rule

You're gonna bust barely low. I predicted 2.0" in the other thread, which was yesterday's NAM cut in half. Of course, that's for ORD. We'll have to trust you not to short-stick for YBY.

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Fun with 15z SREF mean snowfall numbers. "Close as I can figure" totals through 6z Feb 23. Pure entertainment value, use with caution.

 

BTL: 2.6"

CID: 8.1"

CMI: 2.2"

DBQ: 8.1"

DKB: 5.9"

DSM: 9.8"

DTW: 1.6"

DVN: 7.4"

FWA: 1.2"

GRR: 3.2"

IKK: 3.7"

IND: 0.7"

JOT: 5.1"

LAF: 1.4"

LSE: 7.2"

MCI: 11.6"

MKE: 5.7"

MKG: 3.5"

MLI: 7.2"

MSN: 6.4"

ORD: 5.3"

PIA: 5.4"

RFD: 6.2"

STL: 2.4"

UGN: 5.4"

UIN: 7.3"

VPZ: 2.9"

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You're gonna bust barely low. I predicted 2.0" in the other thread, which was yesterday's NAM cut in half. Of course, that's for ORD. We'll have to trust you not to short-stick for YBY.

 

 

Yeah ORD is well west of me so should do a little better.  We're on the same page.  My measurements aren't ideal because it's a super urban environment but I do pretty well.

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2.8" for ORD sounds about right. I am sure the Lakefront heater will come up with 2.0"

What are you thinking locally? The global models have been wetter (0.15-0.30") than the American models (0.05-0.10"). Freezing drizzle may complicate things too, and with temps aloft we may be seeing a relatively low ratio snowfall for the first time this month. Im gonna go global and say 2". But a few GFS runs have had next to nothing here so thats still a worry.

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What are you thinking locally? The global models have been wetter (0.15-0.30") than the American models (0.05-0.10"). Freezing drizzle may complicate things too, and with temps aloft we may be seeing a relatively low ratio snowfall for the first time this month. Im gonna go global and say 2". But a few GFS runs have had next to nothing here so thats still a worry.

1-2"

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My original call for the QC a few days back was 1-3".  That's what I've been telling everyone at work today too lol.  Recent trends point to higher amounts than that, but still a ways to go.  NAM is always over-amped in this range, so it gets tossed IMO.

 

I think You or Hawkeye are going to the winners without question.

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