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February 13-14th Potential Winter Storm Threat Discussion


Zir0b

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thats true...and this s/w is initially held back over the southwest so if it holds it a bit too long, that plays a part too. I looked at the GFS and it is indeed slightly faster with ejecting the s/w

yeah it actually might not be so straightforward...has a lot to do with the interaction of that northern s/w...last night's 0z GGEM actually tried to phase the northern stream supposed kicker but was a few hours late. There' a few directions this storm could go in 

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the key is the orientation and speed of that kicker. If its modeled too fast and too far south, then the result is more like the GFS. Not sure which model would do better with this. GFS tends to do really well with pure miller a's

I would trust the Euro more with the miller A's. The GFS got absolutely destroyed by this last storm mainly because it couldn't resolve the southern low correctly even as it was coming up the coast.

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I would trust the Euro more with the miller A's. The GFS got absolutely destroyed by this last storm mainly because it couldn't resolve the southern low correctly even as it was coming up the coast.

 

Yes but that wasn't a pure miller A, there was a lot of influence from the primary that most likely played a role in how the gfs handled things, which included when and where it would phase. The gfs was actually very accurate with the backside deform banding. 

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Yes but that wasn't a pure miller A, there was a lot of influence from the primary that most likely played a role in how the gfs handled things, which included when and where it would phase. The gfs was actually very accurate with the backside deform banding. 

underdid precip though. even on the backside. Euro at 12z yesterday had something like 0.6 0.5 and 0.35 for the 6hr timeframes from 1pm to 7am. The gfs had nowhere near as much. For nyc it verified closely to what occured. We received 1.23 over that 18hour period.

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Once the euro shows it, I'll get excited, the gfs is too prone to flip flop IMO. I've been disappointed with it one too many times

 

 

The GFS has had essentially the same solution for 7 consecutive runs now. It's a good enough model in verification scores that its consistency should not be discarded. The Euro made a definite move toward the GFS and its ensembles were even more impressive.

 

I'm intrigued by this threat as tropical forcing will be ideal for the mid atlantic/east coast. Cold/storminess combo peaks in phase 1-2 MJO on average. There is a drying tendency once into phase 3 MJO which is where we'll be post feb 16th.

 

The potency of the sern stream low means the Wed/Thurs threat has potential from the interior South up through the DCA-BOS corridor. Could be a widespread SECS chance.

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DT literally just said forget it, it's strictly a mid Atlantic event, not NYC or New England, said the gfs the wrong

 

If this is not a NYC or New England event its nobody's event, I don't see any way that the MA other than maybe the DC region is cold enough for snow in this setup, there just is not enough suppression and that initial front running low pushes too much mild air up in the Carolinas and Virginia.  I could buy the 2nd event evolving into more of a MA or SE event if the sharp trough ends up too progressive and forces the Gulf low off the SE coast. 

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DT literally just said forget it, it's strictly a mid Atlantic event, not NYC or New England, said the gfs the wrong

 

 

 

Simple logic would argue that the current model solutions are unlikely to remain locked for the next 4-5 days. Whenever we're in the bullseye at this range, that usually fails. Many good winter events have been progged well SE in the medium range only to trend NW, and I believe the pattern supports such a progression this time. The ridge out west is amplifying and the sern vort is potent enough to raise heights to its east. The operational Euro could easily move NW on its next run, in fact I think it will.

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DT literally just said forget it, it's strictly a mid Atlantic event, not NYC or New England, said the gfs the wrong

J B. said same thing says this is for Roanoke DC Balt. With a slide south Likes wknd better. Pls hold the JB bashing to a min thx

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This is still outside the NAM's range...how do you come to the conclusion that it's warning snows for you? Though the H5 setup on the 84 hr NAM does look decent...would like to see the Euro come on board today

Read on accuweather forums that it would be a MECS, assumed that that was warning snows. GFS is .5+, and with 12:1 that’s 6” in 12 hours, warning snow.

 

-skisheep

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Simple logic would argue that the current model solutions are unlikely to remain locked for the next 4-5 days. Whenever we're in the bullseye at this range, that usually fails. Many good winter events have been progged well SE in the medium range only to trend NW, and I believe the pattern supports such a progression this time. The ridge out west is amplifying and the sern vort is potent enough to raise heights to its east. The operational Euro could easily move NW on its next run, in fact I think it will.

I mean I thought the pattern didn't look too bad, but DT said the pattern does not support a storm for us wed/thurs. He knows alot more than I do about this stuff and is usually pretty accurate.
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I mean I thought the pattern didn't look too bad, but DT said the pattern does not support a storm for us wed/thurs. He knows alot more than I do about this stuff and is usually pretty accurate.

 

saying the pattern doesn't support a storm is foolish, sorry. Please keep his thoughts in the banter thread

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J B. said same thing says this is for Roanoke DC Balt. With a slide south Likes wknd better. Pls hold the JB bashing to a min thx

 

lol..... there's an unholy alliance: DT and JB.

 

i'm one of those hopeless romantics that listen to both.

 

i always start getting hopeful when DT utters the words, "not for NYC."

it's usually the first hint snow is in our future.

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lol..... there's an unholy alliance: DT and JB.

 

i'm one of those hopeless romantics that listen to both.

 

i always start getting hopeful when DT utters the words, "not for NYC."

it's usually the first hint snow is in our future.

I should have edited JB s comments. He thinks the mid wk system is ok. He loves the wknd system. He just thinks the mid week is accum snow. But the wknd is what he's setting his. Sights on.

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