PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 . 21 z thru Long Island 850`s south of the area .50 - .75 falling SLP east of the Delmarva at 0z .75 - 1.00 liquid falling with the SLP east of AC , which should be cooling the column the 850 go north ? ( the timing of the turn over out there is key to how much ) only to come crashing back down at 3z with .50 - .75 snow falling . Surface temps seem to be running a few degrees lower than forecasted . Think once into higher rates and the center east of AC the column collpases over Long Island . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You guys are funny stressing over the models. Now casting is a lot more fun, watching the little shifts, waiting for that phase, watching the precip shield expand or collapse... That doesn't mean models suddenly become useless in the near-term. Models aren't useless and then suddenly become skillful outside of 12 hours. I think using nowcasting and models in conjunction with each other is good. And quite frankly, if the NAM had continued the epic snow totals or even raised them, absolutely no one would be saying "guys, it's time to nowcast, don't look at the models"..... So correct ! They would be saying "NAM CRUSHES NYC WITH 3" QPF ALL SNOW"....not "well it shows 35" of snow for NYC, but I doubt that'll happen". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When this is all said and done, there will be many, many lessons to learn. People fail to accept marginal thermal profiles that produce extensive rain. Strongly agreed. I just hope I get a few inches right now. The good news is there's plenty more chances this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 People call busts all the time before the storm even starts. Let the storm play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 looks like the naysayers are taking over..time to leave the board for a while..Looking foward to tonight when I think most of the area gets clocked..see you then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 People call busts all the time before the storm even starts. Let the storm play out. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 . 21 z thru Long Island 850`s south of the area .50 - .75 falling SLP east of the Delmarva at 0z .75 - 1.00 liquid falling with the SLP east of AC , which should be cooling the column the 850 go north ? ( the timing of the turn over out there is key to how much ) only to come crashing back down at 3z with .50 - .75 snow falling . Surface temps seem to be running a few degrees lower than forecasted . Think once into higher rates and the center east of AC the column collpases over Long Island . Right I would go a little colder than the NAM at this point closer to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 this thread is unbearable...theres about 6-7 posters that ruin it for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 People call busts all the time before the storm even starts. Let the storm play out. If these busts did not turn into busts like the "negative" ones have spoken of when on the models, you'd have about 75"+ of snow this season so far. How many inches do you have ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It seems to happen almost every year. Due to lack of knowledge, many people view the 0C 850 mb isotherm as a "wall" or "barricade" to rain. "If I'm north of that, I'm safe." It's just not the case. I think this is a 4-8 inch storm with almost all of it coming after 10PM as the OH valley system heads east and essentially helps form a nice deformation band on the western flank of the system. Unfortunately, this was a very complex evolution and even the Euro had problems with it. NAM output from 00z last night was a joke, btw. Didnt we get burned by that a couple january's ago? I remember a big coastal storm that even produced heavy snow warnings for the NY metro and most people just sat under 33 with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what is the blue line, the 850 line? Well, im in southern Somerset county south of that line and its snowing moderately and accumulating. It was tainty but now all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If these busts did not turn into busts like the "negative" ones have spoken of when on the models, you'd have about 75"+ of snow this season so far. How many inches do you have ? Close to 7 but there is no reason to call busts. Look at the radar. The low is slightly stronger and more west than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It seems to happen almost every year. Due to lack of knowledge, many people view the 0C 850 mb isotherm as a "wall" or "barricade" to rain. "If I'm north of that, I'm safe." It's just not the case. I think this is a 4-8 inch storm with almost all of it coming after 10PM as the OH valley system heads east and essentially helps form a nice deformation band on the western flank of the system. Unfortunately, this was a very complex evolution and even the Euro had problems with it. NAM output from 00z last night was a joke, btw. I don't even live in this region to know that you are annoying as hell. The event hasn't even begun in earnest yet. What's the point of trying to cold water bath people prematurely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Pressure changes seem to indicate an impending ENE movement in the next 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 DT's last call map http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/LAST.jpg Lowered the amounts for NYC to 8-12. Still a nice snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Pressure changes seem to indicate an impending ENE movement in the next 3 hours. do not look at pressure change maps to indicate low pressure location or direction of movement. classic mistake. Yes the low is progged to move east of north over the next 6 hrs but don't go by pressure falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's looking like an 18z-21z cooling of the column as the heavier precip arrives from NW to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Per ag3: NYC and LI do very well on the NAM. Very well:Here are text soundngs. 1st bold are surface temps. 2nd is 850 temps and 3rd bold is 6 hour precip:FRI 1P 08-FEB 1.1 0.4 1010 94 95 0.22 551 543 FRI 7P 08-FEB -0.3 -0.7 1003 95 100 0.75 543 540 SAT 1A 09-FEB -3.6 -8.1 1006 95 94 0.55 533 528 SAT 7A 09-FEB -5.9 -7.9 1011 87 84 0.23 533 524 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 DT's last call map http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/LAST.jpg Lowered the amounts for NYC to 8-12. Still a nice snowstorm Looks like NYC is on the border of 12-18", Anthony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't even live in this region to know that you are annoying as hell. The event hasn't even begun in earnest yet. What's the point of trying to cold water bath people prematurely? the culprits are out and I think you know who they are because they do it all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 DT's last call map http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/LAST.jpg Lowered the amounts for NYC to 8-12. Still a nice snowstorm he might be a bit too high on LI. 12-18" in nassau isnt as likely to happen as it was yesterday. He is going with the Euro, lock, stock, barrel.. on a side note- peek at the radar and follow the echoes off the lower mid-atl coast...not a great look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Didnt we get burned by that a couple january's ago? I remember a big coastal storm that even produced heavy snow warnings for the NY metro and most people just sat under 33 with rain. Very different situation, temps were in the 40s and there was no cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't even live in this region to know that you are annoying as hell. The event hasn't even begun in earnest yet. What's the point of trying to cold water bath people prematurely? exactly...I'm not sure what the point is. It is 9:42 and it has been precipitating for a grand total of 2 hours. 4-8 is a respectable call, but storm at sea you really just through fuel on the fire. This thread sucks as it is and you just make it 10 times worse. Look at famartin, earthlight, isotherm, coastalwx, orhwx, even forky who post informative stuff, not garbage like you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 DT's last call map http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/LAST.jpg Lowered the amounts for NYC to 8-12. Still a nice snowstorm 12-18 is very very close to me and KNYC for that matter. Could easily still get into that with banding signatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You guys need to seriously suck it up. I've seen people with egg on their face in our region who call busts if things are an hour or two off schedule. At a minimum you guys will probably get 8-10"? We'd gladly take it in DC. Man up and stop being so GD negative. This message is for the bust calling negative nancys. Not the rest of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's looking like an 18z-21z cooling of the column as the heavier precip arrives from NW to SE. ya I'm liking where we stand right now...we'll all lose 0.25-0.75 (south of the r/s line and where temps are marginal) to this slop but in the scheme of things we'll more than make up for it with precip rates later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 he might be a bit too high on LI. 12-18" in nassau isnt as likely to happen as it was yesterday. He is going with the Euro, lock, stock, barrel.. on a side note- peek at the radar and follow the echoes off the lower mid-atl coast...not a great look for us. Why not? LI gets 3" of QPF on the 12z NAM, and most of that's snow for the North Shore especially. I don't see how they would get any less than 12-18". Radar looks perfect to me...heavy banding oriented SW-NE with lots of Atlantic inflow causing echoes to blow up south of Long Island. You should see the band pivot once the phase occurs as the storm wraps up. Judging from radar, extremely heavy snow is about to hit Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like NYC is on the border of 12-18", Anthony. The phasing tonight should be interesting for your area as a secondary band moves in from the NW. With better ratios there you could see localized better amounts than the models are showing in a secondary maxima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 he might be a bit too high on LI. 12-18" in nassau isnt as likely to happen as it was yesterday. He is going with the Euro, lock, stock, barrel.. on a side note- peek at the radar and follow the echoes off the lower mid-atl coast...not a great look for us. i disagree ace. I think you're letting your pessimism get the best of you AGAIN. JUst let this thing play out radar hallucinations help no one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Per ag3: NYC and LI do very well on the NAM. Very well: Here are text soundngs. 1st bold are surface temps. 2nd is 850 temps and 3rd bold is 6 hour precip: FRI 1P 08-FEB 1.1 0.4 1010 94 95 0.22 551 543 FRI 7P 08-FEB -0.3 -0.7 1003 95 100 0.75 543 540 SAT 1A 09-FEB -3.6 -8.1 1006 95 94 0.55 533 528 SAT 7A 09-FEB -5.9 -7.9 1011 87 84 0.23 533 524 do you realize there are MANY other levels that influence this?? here is the NAM soundings for JFK, all levels http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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