user13 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Omg is that 63 hour snowfall for MA real.... - It has 12" in 3 hours for parts of MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The nam used to be a good model what happened to it in the last 2 years It had one remarkable winter, I think maybe 04-05 where it seemingly nailed everything, much like the GFS tore it up in 03-04 but otherwise its been pretty on edge since 03 or 04 when it came in. The NAM has nailed a few storms in the past...most famously in terms of the EC recently was the Jan 12,2011 storm that rocked portions of SNE. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/us0112.php Otherwise it is undoubtedly the worst operational model in the NCEP suite. The 4 km is better suited for success, IMHO, than the 12km NAM which is in a weird spot with non-hydrstatic physics and convective params. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When i logged on facebook, that was the 1st post that came up on the news feed so i assumed it was just posted, however, I do not expect DT to back off of that, even the latest euro is not showing the outlandish totals some are suggesting to be clear, i think he is right but quoting some stormchaser as a forecast to knock down is nothing but a strawman. i think 15 is possible if everything goes perfect, id forecast 7=10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 looking nice down on the bayou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I hate to say it, but IMHO the operational NAM is complete junk. The 4 km NAM that is nested within the operational grid will be more potentially realistic from here on out than the op. Last time you posted here about convective feedback we got buried, glad to see you back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Last time you posted here about convective feedback we got buried, glad to see you back hahah I will never forget that. nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DT just clarified, def the latest update this time on the 0z euro run: "The European model has held course and it has not backed down at all. It is confidently and hysterically laughing at the incompetence and inconsistency of the RPM .. NAM and GFS Models. For the 7th run in a row it shows a massive snowstorm for all of central and southern and Eastern New England... And a continues to show heavy snow for New York City and most of Northern New Jersey. It is far and away the SNOWIEST of any weather model and the coldest. Its consistency is amazing and in some ways reassuring.The European models morning shows a large band of 8 to 12 inches of snow covering all of New York City Northern New Jersey into the lower portions of the Hudson River Valley -- Newburg which then extends up into Southern Vermont and Northern New Hampshire and Central Maine.There is a band of 12 to 18 inches over Queens and New York City up towards White Plains ... and in towards Torrington CT and and the berkshires in far Western Connecticut ...There is a band of 18 to 24 inches of snow covering all of Connecticut except for the far northwest corner all of Central Massachusetts ... Into far southeastern New Hampshire... And 24 to 30 inches of snow over Boston southeastern Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I would think he still stands by it, I think the absolute upper limit for NYC in this storm is probably about 8-14 inches or so, obviously that assumes no band like occurred on 2/12/06 or 12/26/10. The best model for this kind of storm is predicting around 2.00" qpf for the NYC area and we may be looking at decent ratios. Now, we do not know that we will in fact get 2.00" of liquid from this, and there are several other formidable models forecasting considerably less, so it is a call one has to make. Do you go for the high end numbers of the model that you trust the most and discount the other models completely, do you compromise with other model forecasts, or do you throw the outlier super-high qpf numbers out. Every forecaster makes these kinds of choices, and really, none of them are bad choices unless they're wrong in the given situation. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mike...that was posted by DT over and hour ago before the Euro came out. Aleet..... Aleet ..... 0Z Euro goes crazy and I always buy what it says. 20" for NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DT just clarified, def the latest update this time on the 0z euro run: "The European model has held course and it has not backed down at all. It is confidently and hysterically laughing at the incompetence and inconsistency of the RPM .. NAM and GFS Models. For the 7th run in a row it shows a massive snowstorm for all of central and southern and Eastern New England... And a continues to show heavy snow for New York City and most of Northern New Jersey. It is far and away the SNOWIEST of any weather model and the coldest. Its consistency is amazing and in some ways reassuring. The European models morning shows a large band of 8 to 12 inches of snow covering all of New York City Northern New Jersey into the lower portions of the Hudson River Valley -- Newburg which then extends up into Southern Vermont and Northern New Hampshire and Central Maine. There is a band of 12 to 18 inches over Queens and New York City up towards White Plains ... and in towards Torrington CT and and the berkshires in far Western Connecticut ... There is a band of 18 to 24 inches of snow covering all of Connecticut except for the far northwest corner all of Central Massachusetts ... Into far southeastern New Hampshire... And 24 to 30 inches of snow over Boston southeastern Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island" so basically the people talking about the euro showing 12-18 are correct. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I hate to say it, but IMHO the operational NAM is complete junk. The 4 km NAM that is nested within the operational grid will be more potentially realistic from here on out than the op. The last time you posted in here was back in mid-late december of 2010. You taught us all a few things about thermodynamics and were one of the first to sniff that storm out. First, it's wonderful to have you back. Second, I would greatly appreciate getting your thoughts this time around. Which scenario are you leaning towards at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That's 6 hours 57hr to 63hr Omg is that 63 hour snowfall for MA real.... - It has 12" in 3 hours for parts of MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro has precip for the area from late tomorrow morning through Saturday afternoon. About 24-30 hours worth of precip. That's incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Last time you posted here about convective feedback we got buried, glad to see you back hahah I will never forget that. nailed it Haha thanks, I wish you guys the best. I am excited to finally track a fun Nor'easter...it has been too long with few opportunities these last 2 winter debacles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Baroclinic Instability's posts were how I learned about the positive feedback mechanisms behind Gulf convection. Glad to see him in our subforum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro has precip for the area from late tomorrow morning through Saturday afternoon. About 24-30 hours worth of precip. That's incredible. Something doesn't add up then. 12" after 24-30 hours mostly snow, with dynamics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Haha thanks, I wish you guys the best. I am excited to finally track a fun Nor'easter...it has been too long with few opportunities the last 2 winter debacles. You were the man down here in 09-10, you taught me a ton as well. I hope we can see you in the MA forum soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DT just clarified, def the latest update this time on the 0z euro run: "The European model has held course and it has not backed down at all. It is confidently and hysterically laughing at the incompetence and inconsistency of the RPM .. NAM and GFS Models. For the 7th run in a row it shows a massive snowstorm for all of central and southern and Eastern New England... And a continues to show heavy snow for New York City and most of Northern New Jersey. It is far and away the SNOWIEST of any weather model and the coldest. Its consistency is amazing and in some ways reassuring. The European models morning shows a large band of 8 to 12 inches of snow covering all of New York City Northern New Jersey into the lower portions of the Hudson River Valley -- Newburg which then extends up into Southern Vermont and Northern New Hampshire and Central Maine. There is a band of 12 to 18 inches over Queens and New York City up towards White Plains ... and in towards Torrington CT and and the berkshires in far Western Connecticut ... There is a band of 18 to 24 inches of snow covering all of Connecticut except for the far northwest corner all of Central Massachusetts ... Into far southeastern New Hampshire... And 24 to 30 inches of snow over Boston southeastern Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island" Its like 24-30 hours of dynamic cold snowfall. Its not 12" for NYC. Its more like 12-18 for nnj, 16-20 for NYC, and 20+ n and e of NYC. People are always afraid to pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Never said that wasn't correct, i was referring to this post from the other forum that someone posted on this thread: " JGNYK03, on 07 Feb 2013 - 01:08, said: they do great.. over a foot i would guestimate.. everyone from nyc to boston gets 1.5-2.5" qpf.. 15-25" with isolated 30"+ throughout the region.." so basically the people talking about the euro showing 12-18 are correct. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anybody have any estimates on Euro for Philly? 4"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The last time you posted in here was back in mid-late december of 2010. You taught us all a few things about thermodynamics and were one of the first to sniff that storm out. First, it's wonderful to have you back. Second, I would greatly appreciate getting your thoughts this time around. Which scenario are you leaning towards at this time? Honestly, I have not been looking as closely as I had during Boxing Day. I have been pretty busy up here in AK with our own crazy weather and have mostly been glancing at times the last 24 hours for this storm. IMO though, this storm has all the classic challenges Miller A type events usually have...and that is the formation and development of that southern anomaly. I strongly favor the ECMWF solutions mainly due to superior handling of convection (it is definitely "down-tuned compared to the GFS...likely due to its higher resolution) as well as its past performance in similar situations. The NAM and GFS seem very odd developing what looks to be substantial frontal convection...which then races northeastward and forces/forms the low in that direction. It seems especially odd considering no models are forming a well developed/elongated warm front...which would tend to result in moist convection forming along the nose of the LLJ then propagate eastward along the front. The reason I mentioned the 4 km NAM is mainly because it is not running convective parameterizations, and it will "potentially" have a better handle on how the diabatic anomaly forms as thunderstorms/convection blossom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anybody have any estimates on Euro for Philly? 4"+? About 1" QPF, maybe 3/4 frozen...not sure what the ratio's are gonna be...should be more than 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 About 1" QPF, maybe 3/4 frozen...not sure what the ratio's are gonna be...should be more than 4. Appreciate that. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hey guys i am new and have a question pertaining to the storm, timing and air travel. I have a 11 am flight out of JFK on Friday morning. Am I right to assume it will be cancelled and try to get out tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Honestly, I have not been looking as closely as I had during Boxing Day. I have been pretty busy up here in AK with our own crazy weather and have mostly been glancing at times the last 24 hours for this storm. IMO though, this storm has all the classic challenges Miller A type events usually have...and that is the formation and development of that southern anomaly. I strongly favor the ECMWF solutions mainly due to superior handling of convection (it is definitely "down-tuned compared to the GFS...likely due to its higher resolution) as well as its past performance in similar situations. The NAM and GFS seem very odd developing what looks to be substantial frontal convection...which then races northeastward and forces/forms the low in that direction. It seems especially odd considering no models are forming a well developed/elongated warm front...which would tend to result in moist convection forming along the nose of the LLJ then propagate eastward along the front. The reason I mentioned the 4 km NAM is mainly because it is not running convective parameterizations, and it will "potentially" have a better handle on how the diabatic anomaly forms as thunderstorms/convection blossom. interesting... the 4km NAM and EC models, both superior handling of convection, but the 0z outcomes are pretty different the 0z 4km Nam runs this thing much deeper and closer to coast, would raise more taint issues than we're currently thinking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hey guys i am new and have a question pertaining to the storm, timing and air travel. I have a 11 am flight out of JFK on Friday morning. Am I right to assume it will be cancelled and try to get out tomorrow? Might be a good idea, I think that 11am won't be bad but it does not mean that the flight won't be cancelled by the airline anyway in preparation for what may be coming. If you call up tomorrow they sometimes will accomodate a change for you for no cost given a major weather event is forecast. It depends too on the airline, AA, Jetblue are iffy...Delta/United do have a pretty heavy meteorology focus and I think would be less apt to cancelling stuff early Friday. Also be sure to say why you want to change the flight if they ask, they sometimes won't disclose they're offering a waiver on the change fee unless you state weather as the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If the Euro verifies, do you think NYC will get a Blizzard warning - I'm not sure winds will be that strong (I could Nassau, and Suffolk being under one) - We have however seen countless storms where a blizzard warning was issued without the minimum wind conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Might be a good idea, I think that 11am won't be bad but it does not mean that the flight won't be cancelled by the airline anyway in preparation for what may be coming. If you call up tomorrow they sometimes will accomodate a change for you for no cost given a major weather event is forecast. It depends too on the airline, AA, Jetblue are iffy...Delta/United do have a pretty heavy meteorology focus and I think would be less apt to cancelling stuff early Friday. I am taking American and have talked to a person who works as a dispatcher. He said airlines have pre planned cancellations for a situation like this. I hope it gets cancelled, I want the snow! Going with my family to Cali for only a day and a half for a party. Some future radars showed light snow in the area by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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