Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 this made me smile. you've been pretty negative all season on our snow threats and almost always right. I hope you score one here Actually, this is the first threat that made any sense. The birth genuine southern stream energy makes a huge difference. I think there could be more in the pipeline now that we're here, I was just skeptical that we'd get here, but saw it coming about a week ago, along with the Euro! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z Canadian 20-25mm areawide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GEFS really makes me question the NAM. I hate to say it, but IMHO the operational NAM is complete junk. The 4 km NAM that is nested within the operational grid will be more potentially realistic from here on out than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Much appreciated. No problem. You might have some BL problems initially, so some of that precip is probably rain. Not sure the percentage...maybe 3/4s of the QPF is snow? You guys are below 0C at 850mb the whole time, so my estimation could easily be wrong. But initially being further southwest leads to a little more boundary layer taint at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just now from DT: "NYC is not going to see 20-24" of snow sorry. This is BAD forecasting and folks in NYC metro are going to he really pissed off when that forecasts Busts" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ptravel... Actually, this is the first threat that made any sense. The birth genuine southern stream energy makes a huge difference. I think there could be more in the pipeline now that we're here, I was just skeptical that we'd get here, but saw it coming about a week ago, along with the Euro! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I hate to say it, but IMHO the operational NAM is complete junk. The 4 km NAM that is nested within the operational grid will be more potentially realistic from here on out than the op. The nam used to be a good model what happened to it in the last 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The nam used to be a good model what happened to it in the last 2 years It had one remarkable winter, I think maybe 04-05 where it seemingly nailed everything, much like the GFS tore it up in 03-04 but otherwise its been pretty on edge since 03 or 04 when it came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12/26/10 that's all I'm saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No problem. You might have some BL problems initially, so some of that precip is probably rain. Not sure the percentage...maybe 3/4s of the QPF is snow? You guys are below 0C at 850mb the whole time, so my estimation could easily be wrong. But initially being further southwest leads to a little more boundary layer taint at the start. Thanks. 3/4 sounds fine, if that's what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just now from DT: "NYC is not going to see 20-24" of snow sorry. This is BAD forecasting and folks in NYC metro are going to he really pissed off when that forecasts Busts" who is forecasting these totals..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mike...that was posted by DT over and hour ago before the Euro came out. Just now from DT: "NYC is not going to see 20-24" of snow sorry. This is BAD forecasting and folks in NYC metro are going to he really pissed off when that forecasts Busts" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well dt can say whatever. Right now the euro shows qpf 2in that will certainly be high amounts of snow..since its reallu cold. Maybe it will change 12z ..but for now.thatd what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just now from DT: "NYC is not going to see 20-24" of snow sorry. This is BAD forecasting and folks in NYC metro are going to he really pissed off when that forecasts Busts" he said that based on a guy posting the rpm lol. about an hr ago not after the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It had one remarkable winter, I think maybe 04-05 where it seemingly nailed everything, much like the GFS tore it up in 03-04 but otherwise its been pretty on edge since 03 or 04 when it came in. I remember it being good in 09 - 11 esp with QPF ( I know its high res but now it seems, rap and HRRR and much better even in extreme short range) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just now from DT: "NYC is not going to see 20-24" of snow sorry. This is BAD forecasting and folks in NYC metro are going to he really pissed off when that forecasts Busts" nice strawman, who is predicting that? way to go out on a limb dT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just now from DT: "NYC is not going to see 20-24" of snow sorry. This is BAD forecasting and folks in NYC metro are going to he really pissed off when that forecasts Busts" Not that I am expecting those amounts to occur for NYC, but that was also posted an hour ago prior to the Euro coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mike...that was posted by DT over and hour ago before the Euro came out. had to be. ECM seems similar to the 18z gfs from the descriptions here, perhaps colder overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If we get what the euro is predicting is there a possibility of thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 wx/pt for the win.. Following him for almost 20 years... AOL forums back for the '96 bomb.. His thoughts and knowledge are second to none! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mike...that was posted by DT over and hour ago before the Euro came out. I would think he still stands by it, I think the absolute upper limit for NYC in this storm is probably about 8-14 inches or so, obviously that assumes no band like occurred on 2/12/06 or 12/26/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 wx/pt for the win.. Following him for almost 20 years... AOL forums back for the '96 bomb.. His thoughts and knowledge are second to none! ya and even in this forums over the years hes been very good. its nice to see him in for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 nice strawman, who is predicting that? way to go out on a limb dT A storm chaser, sean schofer, tvn tv link is on dt's facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I would think he still stands by it, I think the absolute upper limit for NYC in this storm is probably about 8-14 inches or so, obviously that assumes no band like occurred on 2/12/06 or 12/26/10. I think there will be a band like that, all the models are showing a band setting up in our area. ( I think it will set up some where from queens to western Suffolk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I would think he still stands by it, I think the absolute upper limit for NYC in this storm is probably about 8-14 inches or so, obviously that assumes no band like occurred on 2/12/06 or 12/26/10. I could see the NYC metro region getting 12-18", not ready to go with 20"+ just yet, regardless its still a solid high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I get nervous with deformation bands...especially with a stalled storm. Ratios usually go through the roof and most models grossly underestimate the QPF. Another item that has me nervous is the idea that the deformation band originates from Upstate NY (if we go by the GFS). I would think he still stands by it, I think the absolute upper limit for NYC in this storm is probably about 8-14 inches or so, obviously that assumes no band like occurred on 2/12/06 or 12/26/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 does anyone know bufkit for nyc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mike...that was posted by DT over and hour ago before the Euro came out. When i logged on facebook, that was the 1st post that came up on the news feed so i assumed it was just posted, however, I do not expect DT to back off of that, even the latest euro is not showing the outlandish totals some are suggesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I would think he still stands by it, I think the absolute upper limit for NYC in this storm is probably about 8-14 inches or so, obviously that assumes no band like occurred on 2/12/06 or 12/26/10.The euro solution is nearly double that. Of course its possible. But I get that's difficult to actually call for that much snow up front. My first and only call yesterday was 12-18, 24" lollies. Sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone able to throw qpf totals for lga nyc ewr ttn (c-nj) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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