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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


IWXwx

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Apparently DVN bought into the cold in the long range. 

 

LURKING JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF CURRENT LONG TERM IS TRANSITION TOSIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR... AS HUDSON BAY VORTEX DIVES SOUTHWARDTHROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO DISLODGE CHUNK OF ARCTICAIR SENDING IT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY MON JAN 21ST /MARTINLUTHER KING DAY/. 00Z GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENTON THIS SCENARIO... ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH MAGNITUDE OFCOLD AIR WITH GFS ADVERTISING 850 MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25C ON MON WHILEECMWF EVEN MORE BRUTAL AT -30C TO -33C BY 00Z TUE. REGARDLESS...UNLESS SOMETHING DRASTICALLY CHANGES WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTREMELYCOLD PERIOD AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEK OF JAN 21-25TH... WITH THEMAGNITUDE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS GENERALLY EQUATING TO WHETHER OR NOTIT WILL BE RECORD BREAKING COLD. IF MEMORY SERVES CORRECT THE LASTTIME WE`VE SEEN ANYTHING AS COLD AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS WAS JAN `09WHEN THE MORNING OF JAN 16TH SEVERAL SITES TIED OR BROKE ALL TIMEJAN RECORD LOWS... WITH LOWS THAT MORNING DROPPING TO AROUND -30F INSOME AREAS. LOOKING AT THE 12Z/16TH 850 MB TEMPS THEY WERE AROUND-20C OR A LITTLE COLDER. THE KEY WAS MUCH OF THE REGION WAS SITTINGON 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW COVER AFTER A COUPLE OF HEAVY SNOW EVENTSJUST DAYS APART AND WITHIN A WEEK PRIOR TO THE 16TH. SO... UNLESSSOMETHING DRAMATICALLY AND TERRIBLY UNFORESEEN OCCURS WITHOUT THE DEEPSNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEEING ANY RECORD COLD POTENTIAL... THATIS... UNLESS THE HI-RES ECMWF WERE TO MAINTAIN 850 MB TEMPS OF -30CTO -33C INTO TUE MORNING. THESE 850 MB TEMPS FROM ECMWF IN JUST THEPRESENCE OF WEAK SFC RIDGING... LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIESWOULD SUPPORT LOWS NEAR TO ROUGHLY 3 DEGS BELOW THE PROGGED 850 MBTEMPS... OR GENERALLY NEAR RECORD COLD LEVELS OF AROUND -20F TO -27F.MCCLURE
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Apparently DVN bought into the cold in the long range. 

 

IWX and IND also mention it.

 

IND:

TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT A MUCHMORE FRIGID AIRMASS IS PROGGED FOR THE REGION BEYOND THE LONGTERM PERIOD.

IWX: 

 

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POLAR AIRMASS ATTEMPTING TO DIVE INTOTHE EASTERN US NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVEWITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -26 C. TRANSLATION TO WHAT IT WOULDFEEL LIKE WOULD BE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ANDLOWS POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT OVER THE PASTCOUPLE OF DAYS THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD AIR HAS SLOWED BUTREGARDLESS IT DOES POINT TOWARDS A SHARP ARRIVAL AT SOME POINT INTHE 10 TO 14 DAY PERIOD.

 

I'll believe when I see it inside 120.

 

EDIT: Man, the board has been messed up for the past week as witnessed below. It appears that cyclone has lot of nothing to say and I can't delete it. :P

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Wow... can't even get a decent cold shot.

 

Well, I just may throw in the towel.  It's just one of those winters that will be made memorable by the lack of everything: Snow, cold, etc.  Well, we still have February. 

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Buckeye time to update the 2012-2013 fail too. This winter would have to be soo backsided to make it normal, times a tickin and its not lookin good . 

If you are referring to snowfall, maybe in Chicago or Muskegon, but not in Detroit or Windsor. We are only 4" below normal to date and using the longterm normals closer to 2" below normal to date. Obviously with each calendar day the deficit grows, but then again any snowstorm makes up a lot of ground in one day (for statistical purposes the average monthly snowfall is just divided into the number of days that month so the average daily snowfall is that number). And snowcover is right at normal. Its funny....and Ive said it before...no matter HOW much or how often it snows here you get complaints. Our typical nickel and dime snowfall, which is constantly belittled from some here, has gone missing this year. Rather, to get close to our snowfall instead of a steady stream of nickel and diming we had a 5-day "thump" of snow with hardly any snowfall on either side of that 5-day spell. And now THAT draws whining as being "1 week of winter". Also...if snow melts quickly it is "stat padding" and if it stays on the ground long it "gets old" and is boring. We can argue who is optimistic and pessimistic, we all have different opinions on what part of snow is most important to us, but one thing is certain - there is absolutely, positively NO formula that will EVER satisfy those in our region. None.

 

As for winter temp, it would take a COLD February to offset the warm December, so i dont think a colder-than-normal winter mean is in the offing, but i also have to LOL at assertions January will be as above normal as December. For that to happen, every model and indice would have to bust harder than ever before from here on out. At Detroit, we are at +5F on January as the torch is over. How much cold comes down is in the air but no way is a torch incoming, and Decembers departure was +5.8F.

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Wish I could lock in the 12z Euro for next monday. A moist advisory-type snow clipper (temps in the 20s) ushering in an arctic front that sees temperartures drop to 0F or below Monday night. What a classic way to enter the dead of winter.

I was just about to post asking if anyone has seen the latest Euro. From your description, it sounds like it looks good, meaning my spirits have been raised.

 

Honestly, this really is a bi-polar hobby. Happy with one run, then despondent after another. May as well enjoy the high for the next few hours. :lmao:

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I was just about to post asking if anyone has seen the latest Euro. From your description, it sounds like it looks good, meaning my spirits have been raised.

 

Honestly, this really is a bi-polar hobby. Happy with one run, then despondent after another. May as well enjoy the high for the next few hours. :lmao:

Your spirits have been raised off of 1 EURO run? I am at the point where I have to see it falling to get excited.

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