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Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

HurricaneJosh

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

The FB person who posted this (he is a forum regular) doesn't seem to approve of TWC now following invests this way. Keeps the graphics people busy when it isn't Brutus/Luna/Nemo season, I suppose.

395192_4911224619395_1047904824_n.jpg

Why doesn't he approve of it? I think it's great they do that. Carl Parker does a great analysis on TWC usually whenever he is on there.
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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Not much of organizational change with 91L this morning. A mid level spin is currently S of New Orleans along a trough axis of general lower pressures extending from the Bay of Campeche on E toward the Florida Keys. The monsoonal gyre should remain highly sheared and little, if any real development is expected over the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall and possible flooding issues may be a concern for Cuba and the Florida Keys and S Florida the next couple of days as the disturbance generally moves N to NNE.

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Ground Scouring

Ground Scouring

Posted
Posted

I know that the timing is inopportune for an unrelated topic, but the Hurricane Research Division has released part of its reanalysis for the 1941 and 1942 Atlantic seasons:

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/1941_base_revised.gif

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/1942_base_v3_revised.gif

 

The remaining years 1943, 1944, and 1945 should be out within the next few days.

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

Looks like with recent success in TC prediction and model upgrades over the years, Bob Hart has extended the range at which his TC products are available.  As of the 00Z Jun 3 run:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

 

ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble available out to 240 h (was 168 h)

GFS out to 180 h (was 168 h)

CMC out to 180 h (was 144 h)

NAVGEM still only out to 144 h.

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thegreatdr

thegreatdr

Posted
Posted

Why doesn't he approve of it? I think it's great they do that. Carl Parker does a great analysis on TWC usually whenever he is on there.

 

The problem for me wasn't the relaying of the information about the disturbance.  The information is out there, so why not use it.  The problem was that the TWC anchor portrayed it as an "advisory", with a new one available "shortly".  At 7:54 pm EDT.  Compute data from ATCF is the first step in the advisory writing process, but not an advisory with a track and watches/warnings.  Those are saved for systems NHC deems to be tropical and subtropical cyclones.

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Jim Marusak

Jim Marusak

Posted
Posted

so, question time for everyone. in your opinion, when 91l actually gets named, will it be a purely tropical system, or a sub-tropical/semi-tropical system?

 

from what I am seeing on some of the phase diagrams and the guidance out there, I have to admit I'm thinking 40% chance of a regular tropical depression and 60% a sub-tropical storm. your thoughts?

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

so, question time for everyone. in your opinion, when 91l actually gets named, will it be a purely tropical system, or a sub-tropical/semi-tropical system?

 

from what I am seeing on some of the phase diagrams and the guidance out there, I have to admit I'm thinking 40% chance of a regular tropical depression and 60% a sub-tropical storm. your thoughts?

 

Well it depends on why you think it should be given a particular classification. This is not a subtropical system in the same vein that Beryl was last year (at least not yet). The disturbance currently is primarily warm core. The biggest thing that gives it "subtropical-like" characteristics is its large radius of max wind which is more than 100 km away from the center as well as its far removed convection from the center. 

 

What this system is in reality is more akin to a "gyre" rather than a tropical cyclone. Gyre's traditionally have a broad wind maxima well outside the center with spokes of higher vorticity and convection around the outer flank, traditionally on the south and eastern quadrants of the system. One way of identifying a gyre is looking at a plot of Circulation.

 

Circulation by definition is actually the total vorticity of a given area divided by that area. It allows you to pick up on larger scale features apart from the smaller scale vortices that rotate around gyre-like circulations. I've created an animation below that shows 850 hPa 700km circulation (shaded) with regular 850 hPa vorticity overlaid in black contours. I've also plotted wind vectors that increase in size (starting at 5 m/s) in order to illustrate the broad nature of the circulation that develops in the Gulf of Mexico (beyond 1 June). 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/special/20130604/circ_vort_gfs_gom.html

 

What I want to drive home is the fact that the large-scale circulation is quite distinct from the smaller scale vorticies that are rotating around the larger-scale feature (see frames 20-35). This is a distinct contrast from most tropical cyclones, which have a focused vorticity maximum where the RMW lie within. Oftentimes with these gyre-like disturbances one of the vorticity spokes becomes the dominant fixture and TCs often develop on the NE flank of these disturbances. This is very similar to the evolution that Debby underwent last year. If a TC develops through this process with 91L, it likely will be primarily tropical in nature, although there is some chance the NHC will call it subtropical due to the large RMW. 

 

The storm has a limited amount of time for such a genesis, however. This is because there is a mid-latitude trough that will be picking up the system beyond 24 hours that will elongate the disturbance beyond recognition  In the animation above, beyond frame 35 (6 June) the vorticity becomes increasingly elongated as the trough picks up what becomes of 91L and merges it with the vorticity associated with the non-tropical mid-latitude trough. Thus, 91L life as a tropical cyclone will be a short one, and its possible if one vorticity lobe does not become dominant, it will run out of time before TCG can occur. 

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

Posted
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Posted

The problem for me wasn't the relaying of the information about the disturbance.  The information is out there, so why not use it.  The problem was that the TWC anchor portrayed it as an "advisory", with a new one available "shortly".  At 7:54 pm EDT.  Compute data from ATCF is the first step in the advisory writing process, but not an advisory with a track and watches/warnings.  Those are saved for systems NHC deems to be tropical and subtropical cyclones.

Hey, what's up? Nice to see ya swingin' by. :) And, I agree with this post.

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WxFreak11

WxFreak11

Posted
Posted

Looks like the window of opportunity is lessening quickly for 91L. Either way, named or not, lots of people getting too much rain on already saturated ground. Here in the Charleston area, we have had a ton of rain over the last few days with much more to come with this system coming up the coast. Ok..enough of 91L...next!!

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

lolz, next.

Almost two months before you can realistically become tight core snobby.  Unless it is another 2005, but those are infrequent.

 

I myself an encouraged by different people all seeming to like Florida,  One or more Florida chases for you in August and September is just what the doctor ordered.  And I sincerely hope at least one is a daytime landfall.

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

all seriousness put back in...it's a slop storm that might "earn" a name before landfall. If it doesn't, it's still going to bring a heaping of rain to the East Coast.

 

I did lol at Sam Champion saying there was a 30% chance it could become a hurricane (not just a tropical cyclone) yesterday AM on GMA.  Probably one of the better lol statements from the TV met realm in a while.

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Bryan Wood

Bryan Wood

Posted
Posted

all seriousness put back in...it's a slop storm that might "earn" a name before landfall. If it doesn't, it's still going to bring a heaping of rain to the East Coast.

 

I did lol at Sam Champion saying there was a 30% chance it could become a hurricane (not just a tropical cyclone) yesterday AM on GMA.  Probably one of the better lol statements from the TV met realm in a while.

 

Well, They are the EXTREME team. Tropical Storms with a big flood threat apparently not EXTREME enough.

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crossthread

crossthread

Posted
Posted

Hey, Josh! lookie here, I found a a TRIP OF A LIFE-TIME!......

The "Frying Pan Tower" is off the Cape Fear Coast... about some 45 miles..

This is just right up your ally..

 

HURRICANE TRIP: We will make this amazing trip very simple and straight forward. When a category 1 to 5 hurricane is coming by the Frying Pan Tower we will bring out adventurers who will be carried out and back by helicopter well in advance and after to live the life changing experience. It is a flat rate of $995 per person and may be a day or a week trip with limited communication and possible rationing of food stuffs required.

If you are interested in this unique and possibly life threatening experience be aware that a liability release will be required and you may or may not survive the experience.

All participants are required to make a full payment in advance may be 100% refunded if not used by 12/31/2013.

Please let us know if you have any questions...

If you need "info" I'll get it for ya...

CT

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

The GFS is really dry now, takes a track right off the coast but everything is really sheared out by that point

 

 

It's drier than the 6Z but actually still moister than the 00Z, take a look.

 

Still has >6" for Tampa, >4" for Jacksonville, and >2" for much of eastern NC, so I wouldn't call that "really dry". 

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